moonslav59

I think Rafaela, Walter and Valdez are ahead of Ward, but you are probably right about Paulino, Murphy and Wikelman. So, that's 4 gus not 6- even less of a "crunch." I wondered, when the expanded to 26 man rosters, if more teams might take farther away top prospects and just stash them on the bench for a year, but it didn't seem to happen, year one.

I meant to say I Bloom blame for that!

I blame Bloom for that.

Yup. Many people around there are Yankee and Sox fans. that's why their attendance triples when they come to town. Here is Houston, it's a little similar. Too many transplants to have a lot of lifetime fans.

I don't think garcia is 100% "dead money." he may even earn every penny. Maybe the odds are better than with sale or Paxton earing theirs. $13.25M is not a budget killer, ad signing a guy like Lopez or Luzardo would cost twice that. In a sense, we aren't paying Garcia: we are paying for the pitcher(s). Lopez made $2.65M, last year and Luzardo doesn't even reach his first arb until 2024. We could DFA Garcia day one, and the deal might still work out better than signing a SP'er to $30M x 6.

Dumping Garcia would be huge for the Marlins, but I do NOT think they accept this deal. (Most Sox fans would say no, too.) A lot might depend on how the Marlins' scouts view Wikelman. Their system is very good at spotting and developing SP'ers. Maybe they view him as the next Lazardo or Lopez, and might answer the call (then say no. LOL)

Signing him most likely would mean no Story or No Wacha+Hill+Strahm+Paxton combined.

I'm not as high on Seabold as I was a while ago, but I think he'll be on the 40 and start in AAA. I see others shown the door before him. We have 5 guys on the 60 day IL that have to be added back, this winter (Sale, taylor, Houck, Paxton & Cordero) and 6 free agents-to-be (Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha, Hill & Strahm.) We also only have 39 on the 40, now, so after adjustments (+5 and -6), we'll have 38. Two player options: Paxton and Pham. They bring us to 2-4 open slots. Now, Rule 5 additions/protectees: Ceddanne Rafaela Brandon Walter Enmauel Valdez (MiLB FA) Eddinson Paulino Wikelman Gonzalez Chris Murphy (??) Possible to Doubtful: TWard, Bonaci, Hamilton, Santos, Sogard Let's go with 6 Rule 5 additions, not counting someone we might draft. This puts us 2-4 over the 40 man mark, before any additions via free agency or trade and any DFAs, trades or non-tenders. Here is my list of players we may DFA, trade or non-tender: 1. DHern 2. Brasier 3. Cordero 4. Chang 5. Almonte 6. Ort Trade? Bazardo Seabold Winckowski Barnes Downs Dalbec or Hosmer Duran Danish Kelly Of course we won't DFA or trade even half of these guys, but it's not like anyone should cry, if we have to move enough of these guys to make room for Rule 5 and winter additions. I don't see a major roster crunch. At worst, we might need to decide who to keep: Ort or Kelly. Trade Hosmer or Dalbec. Seabold or Wink.

The Rays never sign Story for $140M/6. The Rays would have sold off Bogey a year or three ago. The Rays would have traded Kiki, Nate, Wacha, Hill and Strahm at the deadline. The Rays would never have traded for JBJ's contract or Ottavino's. Need more?

Would you do this accepted trade? Rafaela, Yorke, Wikelman & Duran for Lopez, Luzardo, Berti & Garcia

Agreed, and I'm just throwing this type of trade out there as a way to fill 2 slots with the cost of one. I do think Garcia may bounce back and would be less likely to get hurt as a DH and back-up OF'er.

I think they'd pay some. If we took on Garcia's full $13.25M x 3 lux tax cost, or Soler's $12M x 2 lux cost plus the cost of Lopez's arb, it might still be less than signing the top FA SP'er on this winter's market, and we fill two holes not one. (SP & DH/OF) Here are some key BTV values: 40.4 Rogers 35.3 Lopez 22.1 Luzardo 15.9 Garrett 9.0 Berti -28.5 Garcia -20.1 Soler Would you rather give ... Casas for Lopez or Wikelman for Lopez and Garcia 55.4 Mayer 39.7 Casas 31.5 Bello 21.3 Houck 15.1 Rafaela 12.1 Yorke 11.3 Verdugo 8.7 Bleis 8.7 Romero 6.6 Wikleman

That sounds like a well thought out plan.

Because Garcia costs way less than Verlander, and without an ace, we are toast. (Plus, I had the Marlins paying part of Garcia's contract.)

I think the Marlins take that deal, but I'm not sure I trust Lazardo. Lopez has a 3 year run: Lazardo less than 1.

If this gets us Lopez without trading Casas or Mayer, maybe the drum is finely tuned.

Hosmer had reverse splits, this year, but has been near .750 vs RHPs for a few years and was way better before that. A .750 OPS from 1B is not ideal, but it's much better than the .650 OPS we had, this year. If Casas struggles, we may use these two at 1B, and if he doesn't, we may use those two at DH, where we have a .753 OPS at DH, now..

I tried to suggest a trade on BTV bringing us Garcia and Lopez, but it was not accepted, because the Marlins did not get a good enough player in return. I think it was something like Rafaela or Yorke for Lopez and Garcia plus some cash.

So, you meant sign him? Yuck!!!

Maybe we can get an Ottavino type deal, where they give us something good to go with him.

No, I don't think any one thing comes first. They will offer Bogey what they think he is worth and whenever he responds, they go to look at plan B or C or ... They know they need pitching. They will offer the pitchers they like what they think they are worth. They may sign before or after Bogey. Of course, if Bogey says no, plan B might be to spend more on the pen or RF, and they will wait to make that choice. Is this the type of answer you were looking for?

I answered. I don't think they know on Devers. I think they say good bye to Bogey.

That's a lot of voices screaming! LOL

I'm not sure, if JH and Bloom have already decided on Raffy. I do think they have on Bogey, but I'm far from sure.

If Bogey gets $27M, that adds $7M. If devers gets $30M, that adds $19M. That's about $25M out of the $60M winter spending budget, assuming we re-set. That allows for one more big signing or 2 moderate ones, and we have 4-5 slots to fill beyond SS.