moonslav59

It will be very telling, assuming we can trust the veracity of any reports that come out naming the initial offer made by the Sox, of if that has already happened, their latest one. I don't think $275M/10 would be "lowball," but it won't be enough, after what we saw the last 2-3 weeks. If reports are accurate that he's due about $16M in his final arb year, starting the contract, now would give him more upfront money, which is great when inflation is high. $16M 2023 + $284M/10 extension after 2023 is $300M/11 total. He might prefer $300M/11 starting now while makin $27.3M a year starting in 2023. ($11M more in 2023, but less under the remaining years and with a lower AAV in every year but 2023 (maybe a Sox advantage, if we still reset in '23.) Considering inflation, it might make more sense to take $290M/11 rather than $16M/1 + $284M/10. If he invests it well, he'll end up with more in the long run. It might take $320/10 or $350M/12 to get him to sign, now. That is very likely an amount the Sox will refuse to offer, no matter what the market says he will or "should" get.

The only real young guys the Sox might have thought about locking up under Bloom are probably: Whitlock (Did sign for $18.75M x 4) Houck Dalbec (after 2020 or 2021) Duran (can't think of a time that looked right.) Of course, players like Betts, Bogey, Devers, Beni and maybe ERod, Vaz and a few others early on probably would have been best locked up (or not) under the DD years. We had a chance with Bogey, it seems, and Devers, even now. It's hard for GM to gauge the market spikes, and certainly some of the numbers thrown around on Bogey a few months ago, seem like bargains, now, but it's hard to know exactly what went down and what the offers actually were. If the Sox offered $160M/6 or $180M/7 tops, but BorA$$ would not budge from $200M/8, it looks, now, like $200M/8 was a steal, and maybe it was or would have been, but for all we know, even if Bloom & Co. predicted the rising market for top end FAs, they still might not have agreed to $200M/8 and maybe wouldn't, right now, if they could. In that case, blame a faulty evaluation system, assuming Bogey does not go on to earn that, but again by what metric do we end up saying he was worth $200M/8, $160M/6 or $280M/11? If they would have paid $200M/8 and did not, thinking nobody would pay that, and Bogey would come back and settle for $190M/8 or $170M/7, then it was a clear mistake, and a much different type than above's example. Maybe, when they thought he was worth $160M/6, BorA$$ wanted $180M/7, and if we then offered $175M/7 a few months later, BorA$$ then wanted $190M/7. Maybe the Sox final offer was $190M/8, but BorA$$ demanded $220/8. At no point did the Sox feel they would meet Bogey's demands and their "set value" never matched with BorA$$. An agent's demand does not always match with a player's true value and with BorA$$ is usually grossly more than the expected final contract ends up being. In this case, I think Bogey got more than even BorA$$ thought he'd get 12, 6 or even 1 month ago.

Yes, players no longer had to work for their massah.

A team should establish a player's value on projected production value plus his affect on bringing money to the team in the form of increased attendance, TV viewership and memorabilia purchases. Set the value and maybe overpay by a little, if you want, but never by a gross amount. Maybe, they make mistakes in the setting of value- maybe they nailed Bogey's value to a tee. I do agree on picking a strategy and maximizing the value of players, even if it means trading them.

That's what it's all about. Both sides weigh the risks and rewards and pull the trigger... or not.

Lugo to Padres $7.5M in 2023 w $7.5M player option for 2024.

Maybe tried but not accepted, so the opt out became better than nothing.

Analogies do not need to be exactly alike to be informative. Maybe more people were hopeful in March 2022 than March 2021, so what? The point is, results aren't shaped bu hopes of fans levels.

Maybe acquiring players by trade is our best hope, but here are available free agents at positions of our greatest needs: SP Eovaldi Kluber Wacha Smyly (to Cubs?) Duffy Miley Minor Greinke Hill Cueto Lyles, Weaver, Pineda SS Andrus Iggy Mendick W Castro, Camargo, Chang, Pinder, Gregorius, Simmons RF Conforto Peralta Myers Anderson RP Rogers Chafin Fulmer Ottavino Kimbrel Phelps, A Young, Green

Maybe you don't understand sarcasm. Think about that. BTW, I just said, "maybe I'm naive," so I "should have thought about that." kinda rights hollow, or were you being sarcastic?

Like 2013, right?

All great points, but how many Sox players finished in the top 15 in 2012. How many Sox fans thought adding Vic, Napoli, S Drew and Dempster was enough to make us a top contender? Granted, we did not lose a Bogey from 2012 to 2013, either, but we did lose Agon and 2007 WS hero Beckett. Look, I'm not trying to say 2023 will or can be the next 2013, but I'm just saying teams can recover and win after losing key players. If the Astros sucked, right now, all I'd be hearing down here, is how they let Springer, Correa, Cole and others go. Nobody cares about them, now. That's my point- not that we are going to win and certainly not that we increased our chances of winning by letting them go.

Yes, 2016 JBJ is a better example, and would have been a failure. We did lock up Whitlock after 1 year, but don't have any one year guys like him, right now. Maybe Bello & Casas could be extended mid season of after 2023.

Well said, and you have to guess right to even pay for a 7 WAR guy and get 4-5. The highest salary signing list is littered with total failures- some even from day one (like Crawford, Pablito and HRam) and another big chunk of the list is paying for 3-7 WARs and getting 1-3 WARs. Look at the list and tell me what percent reached even 5 out of the hoped 7 level. Look at the Sox list, and it might be even worse, especially if you count the Agon & Sale extensions. I get your point, but with such odds against you, it makes some sense to think spreading the risk is a better strategy. It worked in 2013, but that may be an outlier and not something you try to repeat.

Thanks for enlightening me. I would have never thought that. I'm not happy we lost any of these guys. Nobody is. It's not the only way to win and make fans happy, though, and that's not a defense of anyone, because we aren't winning and don't look to be in 2023, either.

No doubt. I wanted us to offer Betts $400M/14. I disagree on it being so obvious to pay Bogey what he wanted, but surely with the market explosion, what he wanted a year or more ago, would look pretty good, now. I do have concerns about his not wanting to move off SS. I'd like to have kept Lester and Betts. I was never traumatized on losing Beni. I'm not 100% sold on Bogey locked up for 7-8 years will prove to be a major mistake, but it certainly sucks, right now. It's not the only way to win, however, and fans would be pissed having our stars while losing, too. We had all these guys in 2019, a high budget, and we still lost and looked to be getting worse not better.

100% agreed. I will add that I'm not sure this is all Bloom's choosing, but I'm the one who said this winter would likely set his "legacy" (maybe not the first) and was his "flashpoint" moment. I'm fully prepared to join the Bloom bashing brigade, and lump Kennedy and others into the discussion, too. The winter is not over, yet, but we know Bogey is gone. Nobody liked that. I think there is still time to salvage the overall winter grade to a point where I'll think we are good enough to at least, say "Let's see how the 2023 team does, before bouncing Bloom and the whole top brass group." As unlikely as it seems to many, here, a Devers extension would repair much of the deep feelings of disgust with Sox management. A few other moderate additions might make me actually think we have a shot at the playoffs. Of course, we'd need quite a few things to go right, namely good health to 3 out 4 of Sale, Paxton, Kike, Story, and some help from the kids, but it's not impossible. I'm also thinking that having Bogey, Nate and JD back on 2+ year deals would not necessarily make us winners, either. Except for Bogey, non of the guys we lost from the 2022 team were the 2018 versions of themselves. I think I might get a little bit excited over this team: 1. Yoshida DH 2, Story 2B 3. Devers 3B 4. Turner DH 5. Casas 1B 6. Kike CF 7. Dugo/Ref RF 8. Andrus SS 9. McGuire/Wong C Bench: Arroyo/Dalbec/Ref/Wong SP1 Sale and Paxton combined SP2 Whitlock SP3 Kluber SP4 Bello SP5 Pivetta RP1 Jansen RP2 Martin RP3 Houck RP4 Schreiber RP5 Barnes RP6 Joely RP7 Mills RP8 Brasier/Taylor/Crawford/Wink/Kelly/German/Mata and others That offense might be much better than 2022. The defense ay 1B, 2B, CF and C should be better. Maybe worse at LF and RF. The rotation was not great in 2022 and this one does not look better, but would bringing Nate, Wacha and Hill back be more promising? The pen should be light years better, despite Whitlocks removal from it.

Once we started losing in 2019, the Kimbrel and kelly loses were hot topics- along with the babying SP'ers in ST'ing.

It was my own belief that we had reached the point where we were 4-5 key players away from a good chance at glory and had $80M to fill those slots. It seemed like enough. The statement made to Kike about getting better fed my optimism. I did not expect hearing Bloom's statement about adding 7-9 players. That's what we did, last winter, and I thought we'd lessened the slot need totals. I wrongly assumed the Sox felt the same way, and the market price explosions changed the calculus on how much $80M could go towards filling those 4-5 slots. The market surge probably changed my hopes from 4-5 key additions to maybe 3-4, before we even got to what the Sox were thinking. I have no idea what their reasoning for not offering Devers $300M/10 by now, or shortly. My guess is they think it is too much of an overpay and are locked into the value setting formula to deviate from it based solely on fanbase disgust. They've seen the fans get over losing stars before by quickly turning the team into a winner, and maybe they have convinced themselves they are doing that this winter by beefing up the pen, adding offense they think will replace Bogey and JD, and continuing their slow build up of the farm and 40 man roster. I keep thinking they are trying to time a splurge spending spree just right, but I have my doubts it happens, anytime soon.

History does often repeat itself, but every now and again, there are hiccups.

Especially for our own players, true. They won't suddenly go from thinking Devers was worth $250M/10, yesterday to $320M/11, today. They may not care about the market surging on high end player contracts. Maybe they adjust their value methods slightly upwards but not by enough. To me, it may come down to them just realizing they have to bite the bullet on this one and overpay by a lot. They did go against their own policy when they went extreme on the Price signing. I know they broke their own rules on that one. Maybe, they realize it is time to do it, again. This time, on their own player.

Many saw it coming, but didn't expect it to crash down so suddenly like it did.

Fans might not realize that building a number 1 system if often the best way to win a WS, and they don't have the patience to wait it out.

That seems like the best simplified answer out there. I agree. I think there is more to it, that maybe we will never find out, but some changes need to be made on the decision-making process and keeping up with the changing market and rule changes. We'll need a near repeat of 2013's everything goes right season to have a chance in 2023, an d unless we make at least 2 more significant additions, this winter, the odds will be slim.

Many fans were not aware Pedro's arm was literally held together by a thread, when we lost him. Many were pissed. They were pissed we lost DeLowe, even Bronson Arroyo. I know Beltre was a one year guy, but fans were pissed, then, too. I was happy when Jake left- others were irate. I'm not sugar coating the loss of Betts and Bogey and maybe Devers. I'm not saying we look like we will be winning anytime soon. I felt that way right before 2013, too. I'm just saying, winning would help us get over these losses- not that I predict we will be winning real soon.