moonslav59

Details on the Turner deal... $8.3M year one with $1M incentives that max out at 560 PAs. Year two: $13.4M player option or $6.7M buyout by club The buyout makes it, essentially a $15M/1 year deal or $21.7M/2 deal. AAV $10.85M

R.I.P. Bill Campbell

Maybe build a big lobster trap and...

$720K is "free." I'm not saying I want him on my team, but someone will, and everyone deserves forgiveness, if they are truly sorry for what the did and are honestly seeking to change. Just my opinion. I'm not sure if he deserving of forgiveness.

Only $720K against the tax line.

I think we need a SS more than a RP'er. I certainly prefer M Rojas over Wendle. I'd rather get a solid SP'er than a RP'er.

Kelly, German, Mata, Walter or even Taylor may beat Crawford for that last slot.

Not much different than my dislike for DHern and others for Brasier. All 3 might be gone by the time we add Kluber and a SS. We may just be haggling over the order in which all 3 will be DFA'd.

Too much importance is being placed on roster slots 39 and 40.

I get that, but I wanted to show that some numbers including 2022 don't show much difference, either.

I'm doubting Dalbec even gets 100 PAs in 2022, if he's not traded, soon. Turner and Casas should take all his PAs. My bounce-backs: 1. Kike 2. Story 3. Dugo 4. Devers is going to bust out in '23 I could see McGuire and Casas having big years, but would not call them "bounce backs." Turner and Yoshida are very important. Pitching? Our whole rotation can be bounce back. Who will? I'm going with Sale and Whitlock. Barnes will bounce back- not to first half 2021 levels, but to the point of being a solid set up guy like most of his career. Houck has potential for a big bounce.

But again, at what expense? Who do we not sign, so we could plan on Nate's decline? Bloom already got us Wacha and Hill (3.3 fWAR combined) for $12M. the problem was he should have done better with that $12M? Okay, we can beat the JBJ deal to death and add someone with his money added (over Renfroe) but that's not replacing the loss Nate gave us, alone. I don't think expecting a massive Kike decline was reasonable- JD and Dalbec, yes. It's one thing to expect it, but it's another to plan for it. One of Bloom's biggest criticisms is that he's signing lower lever guys- I call it quantity over quality, but if you look at what we are saying now, is that he should have spread the Story and JBJ money over 6 slots: 2B, SP, Closer, RP, 1B, RF. I think Bloom tried to fill the slots he felt could not be covered by in-system solutions, and it bit him in the ass, along with too many vets declining, all at once. His non moves and moves were budget and prospect-protecting directed.

Still, look at all the returning vet drop-offs compared to Bloom moves. The ERod replacement was hard to match, but he chose right not to bring him back. The Renfroe>JBJ move was horrible. The rest were good, great or meh. I did not list Schwarber. I guess I could have put: 1.2 Schwarber> 1.5 McGuire or -0.2 Pham. That would not change the net change much. To me, the vet decline was so clearly the biggest reason for the decline: -4.7 Nate -3.4 Kike -1.8 JD -1.5 Houck -1.2 Barnes -1.0 Taylor -0.9 Plawecki -0.8 Arroyo -0.7 Pivetta -0.6 Dalbec (seemed like more) vs -2.4 ERod> Hill (nobody would take ERod over Hill in 2022), so I don't count this as a mistake. -2.3 Renfroe> JBJ -0.3 Ottavino> Strahm The rest were plusses: 1.3 Story>Iggy & Marwin 1.1 Ref> Santana 0.9 Wacha> Perez 0.7 Schreiber> Richards

I'm just saying my hopes are greater for Paxton than the rest combined. Since my hopes are so low on the others, it's not really praising Paxton.

No, actually providing several sample sizes to counter notin's one chosen timeframe.

OK, Bogey and Devers increased their 2022 fWAR over 2021, but... 2021>2022 fWAR returning Vets 3.9> 0.5 Kike 2.8> 1.0 JD 2.0> 1.2 Dugo 1.0> 0.2 Arroyo 0.5> -0.1 Dalbec 0.5> -0.4 Plawecki Pitching 5.7>1.0 Eovaldi 2.2>0.7 Houck 2.2>1.5 Pivetta 1.6>1.4 Whitlock 1.3>0.1 Barnes 1.0> 0.0 Taylor 0.8> 0.2 Sale _______________________________________________ To me, the players above this line were way more responsible for the decline in 2022 than below this line, and the biggest drop below the line was ERod to Hill, yes slightly bigger than Renfroe to JBJ decline in RF. I'm glad we didn't bring ERod back! Yes, Bloom mistakes... 2.0 Renfroe> -0.3 JBJ Other changes at various levels of gains or losses: 0.8 Iggy& -0.3 Marwin> 2.4 Story -0.2 Santana> 1.3 Refsnyder 0.5 Plawecki> 1.3 McGuire 3.9 ERod> 1.5 Hill 0.6 Perez> 1.5 Wacha 1.0 Richards> 1.7 Schreiber 0.6 Ottavino> 0.3 Strahm

I still have more hope for Dalbec than Duran. The guy hit over .800 in his first 550 MLB PAs. Duran might have done that for a 10 PA stretch...maybe! Seabold deserves another year in AAA with a chance to be called up again, if he's doing well. Paxton is a good pitcher at that price. He's worth risking a roster slot on, especially when he can go on the 60 day IL after opening day, if needed and not take up a roster slot. He's got more hope than any of these guys plus Brasier combined.

Ort goes, next. The order matters little, but Ort is better.

2021-2022 Old School .301 38 152 Bogey (1234 PAs) .246 40 141 Story (991 PAs) fWAR 10.4 Bogey (22.4 '18-22) 5.1 Story (18.2 '18-22) bWAR 10.7 Bogey (23.4 '18-22) 6.7 Story (22.4 '18-22)

Maybe to justify why we signed Story before 2022 -at a fraction of what Bogey got, and likely less than what Bogey'd have accepted last spring?

His moves were a net positive, even with the JBJ trade weighing it down heavily. His non-moves, in hindsight, should have been to foresee the decline of key vets and trade them away before they declined, even fan faves like Bogey, JD, Nate and guys looking pretty promising after their finishes in 2021: Dalbec, Kike, Robles... Those were worse than not adding a closer, IMO. The returning vets let the team down by more than the changes Bloom made. Do you differ with me on that? Plus: Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Schreiber, Refsnyder Meh: Story Negative: JBJ, Deikman, Robles

Yes. He even pitched in the ALDS. The 5 IP in Sept '21 were not that bad, so one does wonder if he was hurt. Here is Barnes' 2021 season cherry-picked sample sizes: 2.25 ERA/.477 OPS Against in 44 IP 20.77 ERA/ 1.510 OPS Against 4.1 IP Aug 7- 24th 2.84 ERA/ .739 OPS Against last 6.1 IP of 2021 One could argue, he really just had a bad 4 IP stretch in 2021, and just that tiny sample size poisoned his whole persona.

Maybe due to poor pitching in 10 IP to close out the season, which many felt was injury-related.

My guess is Ort goes before Brasier, but I'm waiting for a 2 for 1 trade, any minute. Something like Murphy and Dalbec for M Rojas, or maybe Duran and DHern. How about Duran, DHern and Ort for MRojas and Bleier- the LH'd RP'er on the Marlins? It might take Duran and Dalbec.

The Hill signing made sense- likely available early in the season and may wear out late in the season, when Sale might be ready. The Wacha signing was a gamble, but with the same context as the Hill signing- perhaps replaced by Sale, late in the season. It was the Paxton signing that made no sense. Why have 2 pitchers, you know won't be ready (at the same times) until late in the season? Using that money to sign someone better than Diekman or a SP'er (with Diekman's money added) who was expected to be ready for opening day made more sense. As it turned out, we coulda/shoulda signed a bunch or other guys, since we ended up going over the tax line, anyway, but I think the offseason was geared towards staying under. To me, that means any suggested ideas of what we should have done should be coupled with what we should not have done as an offset to the budget. Certainly, taking back the JBJ trade would be at the top of everyone's list, and many not in hindsight, but all but the Diekman ($4M), Robles $2.25M and maybe Story ($20M) signings worked out pretty well. No JBJ, Diekman and Robles and having Renfroe in RF at $7.7M vs JBJ at $12M lux tax would give us about $14M to spend on the pen and 1B, assuming Renfroe in RF. Seems like enough to make a difference, but I did like the Wacha, Hill, Strahm and yes, the Story signings, and the additions of Schreiber and Refsnyder worked out well, too. All in all, I don't see Bloom winter 2021-2022 as being a net negative, but it could have been better, for sure.