If it all comes down to who has the best rotation in the AL East, and using projections from STEAMERS, it looks like it depends on how you value rotations.
The Yanks should walk away with the division, if you look at the top 2 SP'er, only.
If you value the top 3-4 slots pretty equally, maybe NYY, TOR & TBR look best.
But, if you value SP'er depth to 5-7 slot, the Sox are the only team with over 5 SP'ers with a projected 1.0 or better WAR, and we have 7!
Steamer rankings:
NYY
3. Rodon 4.4
4. Cole 4.4
43. Severino 2.3
55. Cortes 2.2
139. German 1.0
TBR
8. McClanahan 4.0
19. Glasnow 3.4
49. Rasmussen 2.2
76. Springs 1.8
97. Eflin 1.4
TOR
16. Gausman 3.6
35. Manoah 2.6
53. Bassitt 2.2
65. Berrios 1.9
128. Kikuchi 1.1
BOS
30. Sale 2.9
64. Whitlock 2.0
77. Bello 1.8
85. Kluber 1.7
94. Pivetta 1.5
98. Paxton 1.4
142. Houck 1.0
BAL
74 Rodriguez 1.8
105. Gibson 1.3
106. Bradish 1.3
I'd be hypocritical, if I started saying SP'er depth is better than having quality pitchers at the top of your rotation. I've said over and over, I prefer building a rotation from the top not the 4/5 slots. I still believe that, but I will say, about our rotation, all 6 or 7 of them have some serious upside. Their rankings are low due to injury history, youth or lack of experience as a 150+ SP'er.
A guy like Sale would be top 5 or 10, if we knew he'd be 100% healthy, all year.
Kluber and Paxton would be ranked much higher, too, with known good health.
Whitlock, Bello and Houck just need to prove they can go 150+ IP (maybe just 130+) and maintain what they have show, thus far.
Pivetta probably has the least amount of upside, but the guy has had some seriously long stretches of pitching like a strong 2/3 slot pitcher, that one can easily imagine he might string together a full season like this:
3.51 ERA from AUG 11, 2020 to June 7, 2021 (14 GS/74 IP)
4.02 ERA full year (Aug 11, 2021 to Aug 13, 2022 (25 GS/134 IP)
4.17 ERA from opening day 2021 to Aug 13, 2021 (23/GS/74 IP)
3.62 ERA May 7, 2022 to Aug 21 (20 GS/122 IP)
4.13 ERA May 7th to end of 2022 (28 GS/159 IP)
Those are some decent stretches of good to very good pitching. He's never put 32 GS'd in a row, like any of these stretches. Maybe 2023 is "that year." We saw Big Dick do it!