moonslav59

Very much out of character, too.

When he gets beyond 2, he just copies and pastes.

Maybe, but I'd put our lowest 3 (Wink, Crawford and Murphy) of the 12 above the category of "Jabroni." You think all are jabronis?

No, The word potential implies any chance. I merely pointed that out. No goalpost moving. Slight potential is very clearly and firmly still potential. (Look it up.) I don't think Wink and Murphy have more than slight potential. Crawford has a bit more than slight- my gut tells me. I may like "suspects" Walter and Mata more than you, but to me, both have real potential. The rest have already proven they can be decent. Many, it just comes down to health, but plenty of potential for Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Bello, Pivetta and Paxton. , Houck To me, I might break it down to... Plenty of potential- 9 Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Bello, Pivetta, Houck, Paxton, Mata & Walter So-so- 1 Crawford Slight but not close to less than 5% at being a decent SP'er for the 2023 season: Wink and Murphy Plus, any of these guys could end up being decent pen arms, if they are not needed as a Sp'er.

We might need both to return and do well to see Kike get much OF work. Duvall is likely better than Arroyo, so Kike would stay at SS or move to 2B, in my opinion.

Cover with bubblewrap.

My gut's rankings, and yes, all 12 have "Potential," even if some have slight potential. I'd say only Wink, Murphy and maybe Crawford have just slight potential, but if you combine all 3, the chances one can do well is close to over 50%, so count those 3 as 1 and we now have 10 options for 5 slots. We just need 5 of 10. Why not tell me who yhou think has zero potential to be a decent starter in 2023. ZERO. I don't need stats or rankings, just go with your gut.

With 12 pitchers with potential to be decent starters, we may only need "half full." Sale, Kluber, Paxton Whitlock, Bello, Pivetta Mata, Walter, Murphy Houck, Crawford & Winckowski If 5 do real well, we can get by on slightly less than half (5/12.)

It's hard to know what they might do, if and when Story and or Mondesi are ready. It might depend on who is doing well and who might not be or is injured. So many permutations, and we're not even sure Story goes back to SS, when he does come back. 2B/SS Story SS/2B/CF Kike SS/2B Mondesi 2B Arroyo CF/LF/DH Duvall If Duvall is doing well, and we want to push Kike to CF... LF Duvall (RF?)- Verdugo? DH Yoshida 1B/DH Turner (3B, if Devers needs a rest or gets hurt) 1B/DH Casas If a bunch of these guys are doing well and healthy in July, maybe one gets dealt (Duvall, Kike, Mondesi are all on their final year of team control.)

In spending or dollars on the IL or deadweight?

It certainly looks like one of those click bait web sites, but I thought it would be interesting to start a discussion on which were the best and in what order. I have to think, as much as I dislike the Celtics, it has to start with them as number 1. I can't see any logical debate, other than a claim that the league was smaller and easier to win, but 11 in 13 is too good to deny them their rightful place. The number two slot is more up for debate. One could argue the Bulls winning 6 of 8 in a bigger and tougher league passing the Yanks and Canadians (10 in 15.) I'm partial to the Packers of the 60's, as I lived there and watched them win some of their 5 in 7, but 3 of those championships were pre Super Bowl. I see a drop off after 5 or 6, but certainly that is debatable. If the Sox made it 5 in 16, where would they be placed? 13th/14th?

Their injury history is equally impressive.

OPS w 7+ ABs 1.538 Dalbec 1.428 Verdugo 1.326 Casas 1.255 Lugo 1.212 Fitzy 1.143 McGuire 1.112 Abreu 1.091 Arroyo .967 E Valdez .916 Tapia .833 Allen .664 Turner .422 Crook .413 Rafaela .393 Sogard .300 Duvall .222 Kike .200 D Hamilton .111 Goodrum Notable Pitchers: (25 pitchers at 0.00 ERA) 0.00 Mills (3.0 IP), Walter (3.0), Murphy (2.2), Crawford (2 IP), Kluber (2.0), Mata (2.0), Winckowski (2.0), Houck (1.2), Paxton (1.2) 3.00 Bleier (3.0) 9.00 Brasier (1.0) 12.00 Ort (3.0) 18.00 Kelly (1.0), Schreiber (1.0)

So many are there just to fill space, so the vets and real hopeful players don't have to play, too much.

Good point about needing at least 4 guys to do okay or better to keep the wait on Rafaela.

Soxprospects.com #16-20... http://news.soxprospects.com/2023/03/2023-countdown-to-spring-training-20-16.html 16. Brainer Bonaci Hit: Potential average Power: Projects below-average Run: Below-average speed but good instincts Field: Potential fring-average. Fluid w avg range. Arm: Plus Notes: Signed to a mid-range bonus on his 16th birthday in 2018. Has reportedly already drawn trade inquiries early in his career. Participated in the Fall Instructional League in 2019 and 2020, and stood out as a standout prospect for scouts at 2020 Instructs. Participated in the 2021 Fall Performance Program. Participated in 2022 Winter Warm-Up. Summary: Potential up-and-down utility player. Ceiling of a solid utility player with contact skills and positional versatility. Not physically imposing, but has a blend of instincts and ability that stands out. Has feel for hit and at least an average defensive profile to go along with a plus arm. Will stick on the left side of the infield for now.

17. Enmanuel Valdez Hit: Potential average v RHP/ Below-average v LHPs Power: Average raw power, struggles v LHPs Run: Below average' Field: Below average no matter where he ends up Arm: Below-average Notes: Acquired from Houston with Wilyer Abreu for Christian Vazquez at the 2022 trade deadline. Was in the midst of a career-best season at the plate at the time he was traded. Was added to the 40-man roster in November 2022 to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency. Participated in 2023 Rookie Development Program. Summary: Potential up-and-down, platoon bat. Ceiling of a bat-first utility player. Makes hard contact and has a decent approach against right-handed pitchers, but struggles against lefties. Has moved around the diamond, but that is driven by him being below-average defensively and trying to find where he will best fit rather than true versatility. Will have to hit to hold value given defensive limitations.

18. Nathan Hickey Hit: Potential fringe-average Power: Potential average Run: Well below average Field: Potential below-average at C (May end up at 1B or LF) Notes: 2021 Newcomer All-SEC Team and 2021 SEC All-Tournament Team. Received a somewhat surprising over-slot bonus upon signing. Missed nearly all of the final month of the 2021 season due to a family issue. Participated in the Fall Performance Program in 2021. Participated in 2022 Winter Warm-Up. Got beat up a bit behind the plate in 2022, taking a couple of IL stints, including one for a concussion, and missing a week-or-so of games in a couple of other instances. Was set to participate in the 2022 Fall Performance Program that was cancelled due to Hurricane Ian. Summary: Potential up-and-down reserve bat. Ceiling of a second-division regular. Likely has to stick at catcher to reach his ceiling, but has enough bat to potentially make the majors even if his defense does not come that much farther along. Advanced profile at the plate; likely to put up strong performance numbers in the low minors.

19. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. High leg left. Coils before coming forward. Arm swing behind; hides the ball. Uses his height to get good extension. Has arm speed. Some effort in delivery. Fastball: 90-93. Tops at 95. Potential above-average. Curve: 75-78 w long 11-5 break. Potential plus. Changeup: 80-83 w some drop. Potential fringe. Slider: Work in progress. Potential below-average. Notes: Young for his class, drafted as a 17-year-old. Committed to Oregon. Participated in the Fall Performance Program in 2021. Earned a promotion to Salem following the end of the FCL season. Summary: Early ingredients for a potential back-end starter, but there is a wide gap between what he is and what he could be. Already shows a four-pitch mix, with his fastball and curveball showing the most potential. Needs to improve his changeup and slider and physically mature to take the next step in his development.

SP's ... 20. Niko Kavadas Hit: Potential fringe-average Power: Potential plus Run: Poor 20 runner Field: Below average 1st first base only Arm: Below-average Notes: Consensus 2021 First Team All-American. 2021 First Team All-ACC and Dick Howser Award Semifinalist. Raw power and exit velocities were among the best in the 2021 draft class. Fell to 11th round of 2021 draft after turning down below-slot offers from teams on day two. Signed with Red Sox for $125,000 above slot despite being a college senior. Participated in the 2021 Fall Performance Program. Promoted twice during the 2022 season after putting up outstanding offensive numbers at both A-ball affiliates. Summary: Potential up-and-down bench bat. Ceiling of a platoon designated hitter. Value is solely tied up in his bat. Shows tremendous ability to impact the baseball along with an advanced feel for the strike zone and finding his pitch, but also has swing-and-miss in his game. Bat path allows him to drive the ball with loft, but it remains unclear how it will play against more advanced pitching. Profile suggested a player likely to post strong performance numbers in the low minors, which came to fruition, but true test will come in Double-A and above. Not a strong defender, unclear how glove will play at first base. Will have to hit to overcome defense and speed deficiencies.

I'm not trying change your mind or opinion. I'm just wondered what you based your opinion on. Thanks for answering. To me, the game logs clearly show he has been one of our most consistent pitchers since he was called up in 2020. He's had very few bad stretches, and when he does, they last 2-3 games max, and even then, rarely involve more than 3-4 ERs allowed. I'm not sure where your "gut" is getting all that it gets. Maybe you are eating the wrong foods, when he pitches.

I don't mean to scare our metrically opposed posters, but look-see.... ST run diff +26 BOS (5 gms) +19 SDP (7) +16 TBR (6) +13 HOU (6), KCR 97), TEX (8) +12 LAA (6) +11 STL (6), COL (6) +9 NYY (7)

I thought my statement was pretty clear. I remember more about discussions but do remember him running into outs. I remember him being thrown out, often, usually trying for 3B with less than 2 outs. I'm not saying he was a net negative baserunner. I never said that. I said he had bad instincts, early in his career. For someone who stole a ton of bases (129 in his first 331 games or 0.048 per game), I'd expect his BsR to be higher than 15.8. One has to think it was lower due to running into outs and getting picked off, too many times. It was 19.9 in his next 384 games (0.052/gm). (2010-2013.) I thought the differential would have been higher, here. Again, the guy could steal bases and way better than Duran. That wasn't my point. My point was not to say Ellsbury was ever a net negative on the bases- only that he had poor instincts, early on in his career. 2009 (127 PA) 9 SB 0 CS 3 OOB 2009 (607 PAs) 50 SB 11 CS 2 picked off 5 OOB 39% XBT% (League average 39%) Extra Base Taken % 2010 (693 PAs) 70 SB 12 CS 6 picked off 7 OOB 40% XBT (league avg: 39%) 2011 (732 PAs)- Missed much or 2011 and 39 SB 15 CS 4 Picked Off 10 OOB - OUCH! 2012- improvement begins (323 PAs) 14 SB 3 CS 1 PO 1 OOB 52% XBT% (42% Lesague) 2013 (636 PAs) 52 SB 4 CS (WOW! 3 PO 8 OOB (too high) 42% XBT% (league 39% 55% XBT% (league 41%)

So, no examples or reasons, just your gut? Also, I gave no metrics just simple game stats.

I remember discussing his bad instinct many times more than specific instances or examples.