Max, I totally respect your opinion, and despite what another poster said, I would not have been upset had Cora left Houck in, at least until someone got on base.
We've talked about this issue a lot, here. The numbers are pretty clear and do actually represent real games. The fact is, Houck often looks really good, but then starts to slip the 2nd time through, at times, and then the 3rd time through almost always leads to disaster. They key is deciding when to take him out, even when he has looked good. Waiting for 1-2 or two to get on base might be too late, since we don't have 4 Winks to bring into the 5th inning.
The numbers are stark, although the 3rd time through is a rather small sample size, and one could argue Houck deserves some more chances to show he can do better.
.479 1st time (234 PAs)
.706 2nd time (217 PAs)
1.030 3rd time (59 PAs)
An eye opener is that he has only 1 PA against the 4th time through.
Let's look at this year:
Game 1: After 4 IP 0 ERs, 1 hit, 1 BB- looking great going into the 5th right? Leave him in, right? (Better stats than today.)
In the 5th, near the end of the second time through, he gets the first guy out. 13 outs, 1 hit, 1BB, then...
Single and HR (last two batter of second time through, then he gets the second out. 14 outs, 3 hits, 1 BB, 2 R. Still okay, right? Leave him in?
3rd time through, starting with 2 outs: HR by Mullins. He gets the last guy out and then is yanked.
Game 2: Cruises through the first time through: 9 outs, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BB.
2nd time: ground out, BB, K, 1B, 2B, SF (2 runs in) But he was doing so well!
He gets the next inning out 1-2-3 all groundouts and is yanked after 5. (only faced 1 guy 3rd time through.)
Game 3: He struggles in the first (BB, 1B, 2B and 2 runs), then settles down a bit, although he allows a BB and 1B in 2 of the innings that followed and a BB in the other.
He's yanked after facing 1 batter 3rd time through.
BTW, we won all 3 games.
Game is a win, too. Houck cruises through 3 (9 outs, 0 hits, 1BB).
4th inning (2nd time) he allows 2 hits but no runs.
5th inning (last guy up 2nd time through ground rule 2B), first guy 3rd time through- you guessed it- another ground rule 2B for a run. He was doing great up to then! Let's give him a chance to see the 3rd time through- great! a 1-2-3 6th.
The 7th was not so kind (still 3rd time) 1B, line out, ground out, HR- Ooops!
6th start (only loss in Houck start, until today)
Unearned run in 1st
He does okay until the 4th: the last 4 guys of the second time through go 1B, 1B, 1B, Ground out, then 3rd time through...
1B (run) and deep SF (run) then lineout to end inning.
They leave him in the 5th and he does fine- just 1 BB, then he's yanked.
His last start (a win):
2BB and a 2B through the first 17 batters, then: 1B, 1B. K, BB, 1B, 1B, HR (6 runs) He was doing pretty well before batter #17.
I just don't see how Cora can be blamed for trying to guess the exact moment to yank Houck. He could have left him in, which would have been fine, but who knows, really?
I do not think it was so obvious.
I think yanking him was a good choice. I just wish we had better middle guys to bring in.
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