moonslav59

Stop trying to fix Devers. Don't tinker with success. His unique style helps the team and makes pitchers adjust to a non cookie cutter line-up.

Stop!

Perales, Wikelman, Mata, Gambrell Long shots: Walter, Murphy, Dobbins, Bastardo, Troye, Liu Far away" E R-C, Monegro, I Coffey, Rogers, Paez It's hard to know, but I'm not sure another Bello type is soon to be called up. I will say, this group looks no worse than many recent years, and this is after 5 recent and significant call-ups.

My point wasn't about those 5 guys being great, but rather a marked improvement over any group of 3 to 5 pitchers since the Theo era. I'm not sure if it's a fluke or not, but if change does come, I expect it will be slowly, as it takes a minimum 4-6 years to develop a drafted or IFA pitcher into a mature ML pitcher. Bloom has not been our GM for 4 years, yet, and it seems you are already expecting greatness.

TB Rays Drafts Pitching (Top 4 picks) 2010 4th pick J THompson- Long Beach St 2011 1st pick (24th) T Guerrieri- HS 6th pick (42nd) J Ames- Lower Columbia College 2012 4th pick (152) N Gannon- HS 2013 2nd pick (29) R Stanek- Arkansas (RP) 2014 none 2015 none 2016 none 2017 1st pick (4) B McKay- Louisville 2nd pick (31) D Rasmussen- Oregon St 3rd pick (40) M Mercado - HS 2018 1st pick (16) Liberatore- HS 2nd pick (31) McClanahan- So. Florida Post Bloom.... 2019 2nd pick (36) J Gross- HS 3rd pick (40) S Johnson- Campbell 4th pick (61) H Mullins- HS 2020 1st pick (24) N Bitsko- USA 3rd pick (57) I Seymour- VA Tech 4th pick (70) A Burleson- E Carolina 2021 none 2022 3rd pick (103) T Martin- Okl St I'm not seeing some great success story, here.

Well, okay. The trade for Sale worked, and that was not that long ago. The Porcello trade was a good one, too. (It was the extension that killed us.) Start with the DD era. Almost all our best pitchers were not from our system and we did win 92+ games 4 times in 7 years. Look, I agree, the best system is one that develops strong pitchers on a pretty consistent basis. Nobody says that's a bad idea. But, if we start today, or started 4 years ago, it takes time for the results to start being seen, and in the mean time, only one solution can be used to carry us to that day, if that day ever comes: trading or buying pitchers. BTW, I'm not down on Bello. I'm just pointing out how it takes years for guys like him to become an ace, and maybe even 2024 is too soon to call him that, as he likely will not give us 190+ IP. Also, Bello was signed as an IFA in the summer of 2017. It's been just over 6 years, and he has just recently starting to contribute. Yes, college pitchers might be 4-5 years, 3 if lucky. Houck was drafted out of college in 2017. He started contributing in 2021: 4 years. Whitlock was drafted out of college in 2017: 4 years, again. Crawford? You guessed it: college 2017. It took him 5 years to contribute as a plus. Winckowski? Drafted from HS in 2016: 7 years to be a true plus in MLB.

Picking out a GM's worst decision is not how I grade a GM. If it was, all would get an F.

My words are uncountable. LOL

Couldn't Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford and Wink be a sign the times are changing? It could be possible, right? Have any changes been made on the farm, in the areas of scouting and developing pitching?

You mean from the worst pitcher development system in the universe? BTW, Bello is not a beast of burden, yet. I doubt he gets over 190 IP in 2024, but I like him a lot. We need two 200 IP studs.

Signing Eflin and Wacha and not Kluber and Brasier or Mondesi on the roster, and we are in a playoff slot, today.

Even a much lesser move like trading for Civale, in August would have made us better, now and next year. (He may have 2 more years of control.)

I'd say with average D, we'd have 6-9 more wins. With top 5 D, maybe 7-11 more wins.

Most college drafted pitchers take 4 years to develop and actually start contributing at the ML level- minimum, except for very few exceptions. HS players take 5-6 or more. I stand by my 4-6 years for all pitching prospects as the vast majority fall in that range. Look it up. BTW, TBR had a pretty bad hit and miss rate on pitchers drafted. They are best known for scavenging other team's rosters and farm systems and acquiring good pitching, like Springs from us. Yes, they are known for developing some very well. Not a single poster disagrees on the idea that we need to improve our pitching prospect development system. Nobody. It's not an easy task, and if we have not done enough to do that, so far, that is a big mark against Bloom & Co. I'll drive that bandwagon. However, how will we know he hasn't or has done it until at least 4-6 years have gone by? I've already seen improvement on the pitchers we have called up since Bloom took over: Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Wink and Bello are better than any group of 5 since Theo. You assume we have done nothing. Maybe you are right, but it takes time to know, and you seem to expect aces in 3-4 years. You are in a tiny minority on that opinion. You point to Price and Sale and you are right. They may have helped us win in 2018, but they did not earn their money. What about others not from our system? Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Lackey and ERod? Those guys have worked out better than Lester, Buch, Masterson and Bello. I'm all for developing aces. I'm all for drafting better pitching, but no GM drafts pitching just because they are pitchers. They draft the best available player and maybe, just maybe, use position as the tie-breaker.

Yes, and it's not like adding Bernardino to the list of Bloom's prospects added moves the needle all that much. If you don't count him, then he counts on the "gems in the rough" category and maybe moves the needle n that grade by 1/4th of a grade level.

I'm all about adding to the top of the rotation and never from the bottom. Signing a #5 is a waste, unless you plan on him being your #6 or rotation depth. The point about the "wisdom" of waiting is from a top brass budget angle. It's a waste to sign a $30M pitcher for a team destined to miss the playoffs, anyway. Offense is more exciting for fans of losing teams or .500 teams. I fully understand the value of having at least 2 beasts of burden at the top of a rotation. One is never enough. Right now, we have none.

Well said. I believe JH & Co will spend very big, again and soon. I don't see the value in waiting until 2025 or 2026. We only have Dugo, Pivetta, Jansen and Martin for one more year. Why not start, this winter. You can replenish for 2025 with the help of Sale's expiring contract. Devers is in peak prime. Story and Yoshida will be past prime, soon. Those are our biggest investments, right now. Why wait any longer? Our core of maturing young players with 1-3 years under their belt is at its highest numbers in many years: Casas, Duran, Wong, Bello, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock & Wink. Our core of veteran role players with some history of success is enough to set up a situation whereby only 3-4 major slots need to be filled, this winter, which is the fewest since 2019: Dugo, Urias, Reyes, McGuire, Refsnyder, Schreiber and long shot Sale. On top of all this, we have a few exciting young players looking to bust onto the scene and win a FT or major role position on the team: Rafaela, Abreu and maybe even EValdez, Rosier or longer shots like DHam, S Scott, Meidroth, Gambrell, Mata, Murphy, Robertson, Guerrero or Walter. Returning from injury and possible depth: Joely, Kelly, or Mills. To me, our 2024 looks very well set up for us to think about adding quality over quantity. Just 2 key additions to the rotation could be enough. Adding a big RH'd bat and a pitcher for rotation/pen depth would be welc ome, too. I see only 4 key players needed, this winter. That has not been the case since before Bloom took over.

...and finish above the Yanks. I'm still hoping we can pass the Jays, but it might take a sweep of the 3 remaining games with them, and that seems highly unlikely. (Note: all our series with TOR have been sweeps- two by us and one by them.)

To me, that has been the biggest "mistake," but I also see the wisdom of waiting to sign a top FA, until the last moment right before you think the window is open. Had we thought the window was going to be 2024-2027, for example, why sign a 31 year old stud pitcher back in 2021?

Yes, weak opps, but the back up QB did very well, yesterday.

I get that, but I think Yoshida is eligible for the ROY Award. Also, some think the Japanese professional level is about the same as the AAA professional level.

A look at the 2024 Lux Tax Budget: $M 29.1 Devers 26.6 Sale (last year) 23.3 Story 18.0 Yoshida 16.0 Jansen (last year) 7.5 Martin (last year) 4.7 Whitlock 4.2 Joely (option given?) 2.0 Refsnyder Sub Total: 131.4 Signed (128.3 no Joely and $500K buyout) Arb Est 9.5 Dugo (3 of 3) 8.5 Pivetta (3 of 3) 5.1 Urias (3 of 4) 1.5 McGuire (2 of 3) Sub Total: 156.0 (about 152 w/o Joely) 17.0 Player Benefits 13.0 Pre arbs on 26 1.3 40 man players in minors 1.7 0-3 year bonus pool $189M before any additions $48M below first tax line ($237M) $68M below second tax line ($257M) IMO, we need 2-3 SP'er and maybe one big RH'd bat (CF/RF/2B?) In reality, we might add 2 SP'er, 1 RP'er and 2 everyday players, because we usually go for quantity over quality. 5 Player possible budget at tax line ($48M:) $20M SP $7M SP $7M RP $7M CG (RH'd) $7M UT 5 Players at 2nd lone ($68M) 30M SP 17M SP 7M RP 7M CF 7M UT 4 Players at $68M $30M SP $20M SP $10M Utility (RH'd CF/2B) $8M RP

1. You assume drafting pitchers means we end up with a top starter in 4-6 years. 2. You seem to want us to draft by position of need, instead of drafting by who you think has the best chance of being a productive player in 4-6 years, regardless of position. 3. The method of not drafting and developing top pitchers and getting our rotation via trades and free agency has worked 4 times for rings and several other times for damn good runs. BTW, I asked to check out teh record of top FA pitchers signings, recently. I ask you to check out the record of pitchers drafted highly in recent drafts (and those are pitchers drafted by teams we think are better at developing than we are.) Neither method has a good track record. We have a good track record of drafting every day players.

Interesting take.

Except for 3 long term deals signed in the last 16 months.