moonslav59

I think it's going to happen. We'd save over $10M in arb costs, assuming we don't take back salary with the return player. That gives us some more money to sign a RHB like Duvall, and leaves more to spend on SP'er. Maybe we can get a good LH RP'er for him or add pieces and get someone who can fill one of the 4 major slots I think we need to fill: SP1, SP2, RHB, SP4. Maybe we just trade him for a RHB OF'er of equal value. If we really are intent on leaving Story at SS, and we have Zanetello, Romero and Cespedes further down the road, maybe we will trade Mayer and others for an ace. If we spend a bunch o top of that, we can fill all our major needs.

IMO, trying to spread the wealth to possibly slightly upgrade 7-8 slots is the status quo. You get what you pay for, and $10M/1 does not get what it used to get. I understand, we could upgrade at one or two of C, 2B and CF/RF or try and upgrade our defense by adding a corner IF'er and shuffling others around to DH and 1B, but I'm sick of that strategy. I'd put all my apples into 4 signings: SP1 SP2 RHB (CF or RF- Duvall?) SP4 3 would be okay, if the 2 pitchers signed were aces or near aces. That's a lot of money. I know. We could break the moratorium on top prospect trades and have money left over to spend on just 3 slots, not 4, or add a LH'd RP'er to the bill. We have been moving in the direction of fewer and fewer slot upgrades needed or signed. (I don't count JT replacing JD as spending on a longstanding hole needed to be filled. I count it as trying to just stay even.) The 2020 roster needed about 20-22 slots filled on the 40. and with guys like ERod and Sale missing the whole season (Beni most of it), the 26 man roster change-over was astoundingly high in number. 2019 PA leaders gone in '20 1. Betts 9. Moreland at the '20 deadline 10. Holt 11. Leon 12. Nunez IP Leaders gone: 1. ERod on IL 2. Porcello 3. Sale on IL 4. Price 6. Workman at deadline 9. Velazquez 11. Brewer 12. Cashner That's half the ML roster needing replacement. By 2021, we added 12, but less to the 40 than 2020. Kike Renfroe Marwin traded mid season/Schwarber added mid season Cordero Santana Pivetta Richards Perez Whitlock Ottavino Sawamura Andriese That is nearly half the ML roster. Prior to 2022, we added 7-8 (much less than '21) Story JBJ (Pham & McGuire at the deadline) Wacha Hill Strahm Diekman Paxton The 2023 winter was largely about replacing Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha/Hill and Strahm. We added about the same as '22: about 6 Yoshida Turner Duvall (Reyes/Urias/Bernardino mid season) Kluber Jansen Martin Let's progress to 3-5.

That ain't happening. Too much money- not only in more playoff games, but more teams staying in the race longer into the season. More likely, they will have 8 teams make the playoffs in each league with no byes, or go back to one game play-ins.

Do you really think that was a serios effort? Whether by Bloom's choice or not, the refusal to part with any top prospects is a sign about not being serious about winning, now. It's okay, every now and again, but we went from the deadline in 2018, which was not really major prospects traded away) until now, with no major prospects or young players traded. That is evidence that the "serious about winning now" was a sham statement. The winter spending budget for 2022 and 2023 was a big step up from 2020 and 2021, but it was still woefully short of hat was needed and of 2019 numbers, even without inflation being figured in (opening day roster was $30M less than 2019, which was not a playoff team to begin with.) Also, factor in that many other teams started spending more and passing us in the budget rankings, and yes, it was a sham. The big winter budget before the 2023 season was partially a mirage, as we had to replace Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha, Vaz and Hill, while still dealing with an unproductive mega contract for Sale. They did mess up on the spending, and even if Yoshida earns or nearly earned his keep, we still focused too much on the wrong areas and don't have much to look forward to with the signings, except one more year from the aged Jansen and Martin. I get the point that we could have been competitive had we spent the money very wisely, so it should not be called a "sham" for that reason. Your position has merit. I still think the upper brass has known all along, we were not building for a championship contending team. It's been all about the long term, while trying to give the fans an impression we can win now. It was a planned illusion. A sham.

I still think signing Story was an afterthought or knee-jerk reaction to the growing hostility of the fan base, namely season ticket holders and paying NESN viewers. Even the 2022 budget was not enough to create a serious contending team. Sure, in hindsight we can pick and choose what FAs did well in 2022, mix and match and say, :We coulda won with the right GM," but not many GM get that kind of results on a limited budget. Story has been a big letdown. GMs have been fired for smaller "mistakes" than that. (I put that in quotes, because he may still earn part of most of his keep.) The rest of the budget spent on 2022 was better than what he spent before 2021. Bloom did well with the limited funds for Wacha, Hill and Strahm. He made up for the Diekman signing by dumping his salary and getting McGuire for the efforts. The Vaz for Abreu and EValdez trade may make up for some the 2022 mistakes. Ultimately, Bloom made too many blunders on his biggest moves. Although spending $10 for 1 year should never be called a major blunder, he did choose to spend more money elsewhere than on SP'ers. Biggest Blunders (some have time redeem some value) 1. Story (his biggest signing until the Devers extension) 2. Yoshida (early returns) 3. JBJ-Renfroe 4. Kluber 5. Richards 6. Acts of ommision (SS in '23, SP in '21 and .23 and more)

It's not poor poor Bloom. It's poor poor budgets and farm infusions. Bloom did not do what he was supposed to do. he deserved to be fired. You can believe some other GM would have or could have worked wonders with what was he was handed and what was demanded, but I'm not so sure. This is not about defending Bloom. He sucked at building an immediate winner. Would it really have made you feel better, had they interviewed 10 guys and took the guy they wanted all along, anyway? Bloom. They thought the guy who literally wrote the book on building winners on the cheap was what they needed, because going cheap was their plan. It made perfect sense, to them. The problem was, the guy who wrote the book was not the guy that made it all happen in TB, and the circumstances handed him were much different from the one established in TB.

I do wish Bloom would have done something- one way or the other, over the past two deadlines, but in hindsight, buying wouldn't have helped enough in both seasons. Selling would have caused an uproar on Red's Corner and much of Sox Nation. To me, the budgets and lack of farm help Bloom got for his first 2.5 to 3 seasons was the main culprit to the situation. Yes, Bloom coulda/shoulda done better, but the circumstances were in many ways handed to him or forced upon him by the upper brass who takes very little responsibility for what has been going on.

What? Sham? This whole we plan on "being competitive" was a sham for 3 years. We heard it every winter. The 2021 season saved their asses and made them think they could get away with 2022 and 2023. Maybe nobody would notice the lack of commitment by providing the resources needed to compete.

Being the team's scapegoat does not imply no faults. Bloom was responsible for a lot of what went wrong, but his hands were tied for much of his time, here.

Same amount of games- just less time off for WC teams and a shorter wait for the bye teams.

The heat was turned up on high. This could all just be a furthering of the great sham.

Let's see how fangraphs ranked our positional values in 2024: Rank out of 30 teams (fWAR) 6th 3B 3.4 (Devers Forevers) T7th CF (Duvall & Duran, but who in 2024?) T10th 1B 2.2(6th in batting/29th on D) 15th 2.2 (Yoshida & Co. were 12th on O and 27th on D) 16th DH (Mostly JT) T19th Catcher 1.1 (dropped off over the last 6-7 weeks) 20th RF (We were higher earlier in the season) The OF as a whole was 9th. 26TH ss 0.2 (we were negative until after Story returned.) 29th 2B -0.9 RP: T12th at 4.7 (4th in IP) SP: T21st at 9.1 (27th in IP) Overall: 20th at 13.8, just ahead of the Yanks 19th in ERA- an 100

Living close to Houston has gotten me interested in the local teams. I'm still a big Packers fan, but I like the texans and hope they win. I dislike the Astros, and not just because of the Sox beatings and the cheating. They do run the team, nicely, but I am rooting for anyone but the 'Stros.

He could easily just be the scapegoat, but I do not think they can keep up this charade much longer. Sox fans are too smart (well, some of them) to fall for this, over and over. It only takes the perception of being competitive and a fun team to watch to keep revenues high, but that needs work to make happen, too. I hope they commit to 2024, but I am putting the odds at less than 50-50, as of now.

I agree. I'm not really all that hopeful or optimistic they will spend big on two. If they do stay cheap, just changing the no top prospect guideline could be enough for 2024 (at the expense of the future.) Trade for Burnes Sign one big SP like Yamamoto, Nola, Gray, Snell... I'll believe that, only after seeing it, as well.

It would take massive funding or one major prospect trade plus near massive funding. I'm doubtful we get 2 solid SP'ers, and I'm not talking 2022 Kluber credentials. Getting two would get us very close to where we need to be. They will need to eat 175+ IP, each. (Hopefully 190+) If we end up using Houck in the rotation, but have 2-3 excellent long men in the pen, we can afford to yank him afyer 4.1 or 4.2 IP, often enough. SP1 Nola or Gray SP2 Yamamoto or Snell SP3 Bello SP4 Houck SP5 Sale/Pivetta Long men: Crawford, Whitlock, (Pivetta) and Murphy Set-up: Winckowski, Schreiber, (Bernardino) 8/9: Jansen & Martin This is light years better than 2020, 2021, 2022 or 2023.

Speaking of the Astros: the talk down here is all about "dynasty." Yes, I know... LOL. That being said. this is not pretty damn good, despite the cheating: 7 straight ALCS appearances 3 (maybe 4) WS appearances 2 (maybe 3) MLB Championships All this, while almost constantly losing top players to free agency. (No Betts type trades) 2019 G Cole (15-5 and 144 ERA+ in 2018 w HOU) 2019 Keuchel (CY Young winner, 119 ERA+ from '15-'18 and 4 GG's w HOU) 2019 Morton (29-10 with 123 ERA+ in 2 years w HOU) 2021 Springer (playoff stud, 131 OPS+ and great D in 7 yrs) 2022 Correa (playoff stud, 127 OPS+ and great D in 7 yrs) 2022 Greinke (22-10 and 113 ERA+ in 3 years with HOU) 2023 Verlander -reacquired (165 ERA+ in 6 yrs w HOU before '23) That is some hefty turnover. It sure helped to have 5-6 homegrown SP'ers to take over. Pena at SS. Tucker in CF...

Me, too. The whole pitching staff will be improved by adding two SP'ers who give us 175+ IP and a sub 3.80 ERA. (Yes, I know there are no guarantees.) I can't stress enough my belief that our pen would be one of the best the Sox have ever had, if we add 3 SP'er who can eat innings effectively: SP1_____ SP2 ____ SP3 Bello SP4 ____ SP5 Sale/Pivetta Middle Relief: Houck/Crawford/Whitlock (Pivetta) Set-UP: Winckowski/Schreiber/Bernardino 8/9 RP: Jansen & Martin

I think the direction has clearly been towards building a sustainable future. The jury is still out on it being about to work, or not. I don't think that changes, at all. The part that might change is a stronger commitment to being competitive or even highly competitive, right now, as in 2024. The only way that can happen, IMO, is to spend over the first tax line or even more. If we trade prospects for one slot, then we will see be seeing a shift away from the future being the untouchable priority, which it seems to have been since mid 2018. We can try to keep all of our highest and best "younger talent" and still win in 2024, but most likely by spending big, picking correctly and maybe scoring on a non-top prospect trade or two. The next GM has his work cut out for him, but I still think he will have a nice base to start with. If he has the green light to make a bold prospect trade and can spend up to the second tax line, I think we can win in 2024. I would not trade Jansen and Martin, during the winter, if this will be the case. If not, I'm fine with not waiting to the deadline and risk injury or major declines from either one.

In my opinion, our winter should be dedicated to improving our weakest or most questionable positions. Some positions may be somewhat questionable or have a weak defensive element to it, but they do not come close to what positions are our greatest need areas. At the risk of sounding repetitive, here is my take: Highest priority areas: 1. SP1: We need an ace or two very solid #2 types. This is so clearly our #1 need, to me. 2. SP2: If we get an ace for slot #1, this slot could be a solid #3 type, at worst. If we get a solid #2 for the 1 slot, I'd want another solid #2, here. 3. Solid RHB: This could be in CF, 2B or RF, if we trade Dugo. (Maybe Duvall is enough- maybe not.) 4. SP4: I seriously doubt we add 3 solid SP'ers, but to me it would be better than spending on a LH RP and 2B or more depth. It would push Pivetta or Crawford to the pen and make the pen one of the best in MLB. 5. LH RP: I think we don't take Joely's option, and would have limited LHPs in the pen. We do have some RHPs in the pen, who do very well or even better vs LHBs, but it would be helpful to add a solid LH RP'er, if we have resources available. 6. 2nd RHB: See #3, and fill another of the 3 slots listed: 2B, CF or RF, if Dugo is traded. Thinking in reverse, here are our most solid and dependable positions: 3B: Devers (Urias) 1B: Casas (Devers?) RP2: Martin RP1: Jansen Long Relief: Whitlock and 1-2 from Crawford, Houck or Pivetta RF: Dugo (Abreu) * assuming Dugo is not traded DH: Yoshida (Devers/Casas/Refsnyder) SS: Story (Reyes) May be higher on the list, depending on Stroy's health and rebound level. RP3/4: Winckowski & Schreiber C: Wong & McGuire (Scott?) Questionable: LF: Duran-Refsnyder platoon (Yoshida/Abreu) 2B: Urias-Reyes-Evaldez (DHam) High need (in reverse order) CF: Rafaela-Abreu (Duran) LH RP: Bernardino/Murphy (Joely?) SP4: Houck/Crawford/Pivetta (one would be #5) SP2: _________ SP1: _________

No, but it's hard to justify you are not greatly diminishing our 2024 chances. It's easy to say, just replace them with Houck as the closer and a new signee, but the 2024 already has so many question marks, and this would add two more at two positions we seem to be the most secure at for '24. I'm not against the idea, but I just feel like our efforts should be towards lessening the questions and not increasing them. Just my take.

I assume with longer team control and less chance of age decline factors.

So, you want to trade both, this winter? It will be hard to replace their value, at that money, so is this a "punt season" in 2024, to you?

One could argue Jansen and Martin are two of the most consistent RP'ers over the last 5-10 years. I'd wait to the deadline to make a choice on trading them, unless the choice is a total teardown and rebuild.

I've been trying to believe the playoffs are NOT a crapshoot.