moonslav59

I do not know an easy way to see where players were drafted, and comparing the two lists looks too daunting. to even me.

They don't do it by highest posting fee offered, anymore. The posting fee is fixed. Yamo chooses who to sign with- most likely the highest or near highest bidder. Many Asian pitchers prefer to pitch on the left coast, due to travel times going home, but who knows with Yamo.

The good thing about Gray is that the contract length should be much shorter than Snell and Monty. I like Monty over Snell and Gray, but it is close. (No loss of a draft pick tilts the balance, for me.) I think Whitlock will be in the pen, for sure, despite Brez saying they'd stretch out Houck & Whitlock. Pivetta seems like the best pick for our #5, unless he looks awful in ST'ing. Of course, Sale's health will determine who our #4/5 will be: Sale, Houck or Crawford. The others would be in the pen. Bello should be our #3, not our #2, but that depends on who we add.

Back to the talk about how to categorize (or name) differing levels of SP'ers in MLB. First, so many good pitchers are hurt, so often, it's hard to claim they are better than another pitcher, who pitches much more often, but maybe not as well. The days of 30-60 pitchers with 190 IP a season seem to be over and done with. Only 15 pitchers had 190+, this season. Only 36 had more than 169 IP! How much value do we place on them vs better SP'ers with less than 150 or 120 IP? I'm sure the answer is subjective, and we all have our own opinions on how much IP affects how we value a SP'er. (It's also hard to project future IP, but going by recent past and age seems to be a logical way to reach what to expect.) Secondly, how do we determine who are the best SP'ers in MLB or even on each team? IP? fWAR/bWAR? ERA? xFIP? W-Ls? All of the above and more? Thirdly, do we use 2023 numbers? 2022-2023? 2021-2023? Career? With so many differing factors and opinions on all of these three areas and how much each is used to determine value, it's hard to find agreement. For argument's sake, I'm going to choose fWAR, since it uses many stats to determine a value placement of past performance. More IP adds to fWAR value, if the pitcher is good. xFIP is more important to fWAR than bWAR and that factors in a lot of variables that are hard to do in our heads. Now, here is what I found, team by team for 2023 only: 33 pitchers had an fWAR or 3.0 or higher, roughy one per 30 teams, but 8 teams had 2 on their staff and SEA had 3. Nine teams, including the Sox, did not have a top 33 SP'er by fWAR in 2023. Top fWAR SP'ers by team: PHI: 5.9 Wheeler, 3.8 Nola ATL: 5.5 Strider TOR: 5.3 Gausman, 3.0 Berrios MIN: 5.3 Gray, 4.5 Lopez NYY: 5.2 Cole ARI: 5.2 Gallen, 3.3 M Kelly CHC: 4.9 Steele SGF: 4.9 Webb TBR: 4.8 Eflin, 3.2 Glasnow SEA: 4.4 Kirby, 3.7 Castillo, 3.2 Gilbert HOU: 4.3 Valdez STL: 4.3 Monty (to TEX), 3.1 Mikolas SDP: 3.9 Snell BAL: 3.8 Bradish MIA: 3.7 Luzardo, 3.0 Garrett CWS: 3.7 Cease MIL: 3.4 Burnes, 3.0 Peralta NYM: 3.4 Senga, 3.3 Verlander (to HOU) DET: 3.3 Skubal, 3.0 DET PIT: 3.3 Keller CLE: 3.0 Bibee 14 Pitchers (in RED) were at 4.0+ fWAR. One could argue they were true "aces," but others may say no. Some below 4.0 might be viewed as better than some above 4.0. If you take the example of Monty, which was fiercely debated, earlier, this week, by fWAR in 2023, only, he was better than 18 team's best SP and worse than 11. The "other 9" teams' best SP by fWAR in 2023: 36. LAD B Miller 2.8 45. LAA Detmers 2.5 46. TEX Eovaldi 2.5 56. BOS Crawford 2.2 (Sale was at #60 at 2.1, Bello was #86 at 1.6) 58. CIN Abbott 2.2 66. KCR Singer 1.9 80. OAK Blackburn 1.7 84. WSN Josiah Gray 1.6 95. COL Freeland 1.2 If you go by rough groupings of 30 SPers per group, a team like COL's best SP was actually as good as the average upper 4th SP'er grade. OAK & WSN had lower #3's as their best SP'er. KCR had an upper 3. BOS and CIN had lower #2's as their best SP'er. If you go by the 30 pitcher categorization, BOS has 2 lower #2's (Crawford & Sale) and a lower #3 in Bello as their best 3 SP'ers. In theory, if we add two pitchers categorized as #1's or 2's, those 3 SP'er ranked in the 2-3 groups would now be our 3-5's. Now, let's look at the 3 year numbers (2021-2023.) Since so many pitchers change teams, it's hard to do this by team, so I'm going to just go by fWAR rankings. First, IP: 3 pitchers averaged over 190 IP per season: 619 Alcantara MIA 591 Cole NYY 579 Nola PHI Only 19 pitchers averaged over 170 IP in the last 3 seasons, including the 3 above! The others were Burnes (MIL), Wheeler (PHI), Webb (SFG), Berrios (2 teams), Gausman (2 teams), Bassitt (3), Gibson (3), Kelly (AZ), Castillo (2), Valdez (HOU), Cease (CWS), Giolito (3), Monty (3), Lyles (3), Morton (ATL), Gallen (AZ) (PHI & AZ have two on this list, so only 17 teams had 1+ SP with 170+ IP per year, average. That's about half.) Here is an arbitrary categorization of the best fWAR SP'ers since 2021: (remember, some very good younger pitchers did not pitch all 3 years and could be better than some, listed here. Some were injured and may not be going forward. Some were not injured and may get hurt going forward.) fWAR Top 10 14+: Wheeler, Gausman, Burnes, Nola 11-13.9: Cole, Webb, Alcantara, Cease, Scherzer, Rodon Next 11: 10-10.9: Castillo, Ohtani, Gallen, Fried, Valdez, Mony, Gray 9.7-9.8: Snell, Woodruff, Strider, Lopez Next 10: 9.3-9.6: Kershaw, Urias, Bieber, Darvish, Verlander8.7-9.2: Eovaldi, Peralta, Bassitt, Morton, Musgrove deGrom is #32 at 8.6 and is better than just about anyone in the top 31, but does not pitch enough to earn the value needed to be top 31. After deGrom at #32: #33-46 (7.0-8.5 fWAR) Gilbert, Stroman, Berrios, Eflin, Cobb, McClanahan, Sandoval, Gibson ERod, Kirby, Steele, Suarez, TAnderson The rest of the top 60 (5.8 to 6.9 fWAR:) Giolito, Singer, Skubal, Lynn, Buehler, Wainwright, MKeller, Mikolas Mahle, TWalker, Luzardo, Montas, Jon Gray, Glasnow 61-75 (5.0-5.7:) Quintana, Wacha, LGarcia, Manoah, Javier, Taillon, Cortes, Ray Rasmussen, TRogers, Freeland, Dunning, Marquez, Matz, JRyan 76-90 (4.2-4.9:) MPerez, Senzatella, Pivetta, Garrett, McKenzie, Ober, Miley, Detmers Quantrill, Manaea, Civale, Bradish, Houser, Kendricks, Greinke Categorizing by 30's has serious flaws, no doubt. For example, nobody views Pivetta as a #3 SP'er, but it does show who gives the IP and quality, combined. Other notables: 92. Kluber 93. RHill 100. Houck 102. Springs 104. Urguidy 108. Maeda 109. Sale 112. Ryu 115. Lugo 116. Bello 122. Lorenzen 126. Clevinger 127. Flaherty 128. Crawford 130. Blackburn 135. M Boyd (All over 2.0 fWAR since 2021) The 150th SP'er (5 SP x 30 teams) had an fWAR of 1.9, or about a 0.6 fWAR per year x 3. IMO, we need to add 2 solid SP'ers and have 2 of these 3 things happen: We need to see Bello put a whole season together. (His second half was pretty bad.) We need Sale to be healthy, unless we add 3 good SP'ers. We need Pivetta or 1 from Houck/Crawford to be a solid #4/5. Getting Yamo + Lugo would make me happy. Monty + Gray would, too. More likely, we might add Monty ot Gray plus a Lugo or Flaherty type.

Here is one possible non-outlandish view: Sign SP (Monty or Gray?) DFA Zack Weiss Sign SP (Lugo or Clevinger) DFA Llovera Sign Duvall and DFA Jacques or Dalbec Trade (BTV accepted) Dugo & Mata for Dubon & Urquidy (BTV accepts Javier, but I doubt HOU gives him up for 1 yr of Dugo) The 26: SP: Monty, Lugo, Bello, 2 from Houck/Pivetta/Sale LR: Crawford, Whitlock, Urquidy, 1 from Houck/Pivetta SR: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber/Campbell C: Wong & McGuire 1B: Casas 2B: Dubon SS: Story 3B: Devers LF: Duran & Ref CF: Rafaela & Abreu RF: Duvall DH: Yoshida UT: Reyes 14 on farm: SP: Murphy, Walter, Wikelman, Perales, RP: Schreiber/Campbell, Bernardino, Kelly, Robertson C: Scott IF: EValdez, DHam, Dalbec ? OF: (Rafaela or Abreu?) _____ (Rosier not on 40.)

I'm okay with our catching tandem, as is, too. I think both can still improve. I'd be fine with an upgrade, but I'm not sure we'll have enough resources to upgrade areas of greater need, 2 of which you mentioned. SP SP RH Power bat, which could play... 2B CF/RF (trade Dugo or Duran?) C Maybe even LH RP ahead of C.

I'd like to see a study done on the avg fWAR of every slot in the draft (or grouped by 5's) BY POSITIONs. My guess is everyday players drafted in the top 5, 10, 15 and maybe beyond do much better, on average, than pitchers. HOF does not tell me much.

I also think Paulino continues falling. I think Drohan does, too. I project Cespedes, Gambrell, I Coffey and Penrod rise the most. I think Rafaela may prove to be more of a 5 tooler than Bleis. Part of me really likes Wikelman and Monegro, but I fear they be our next Walter. I see Perales and Meidroth as capable of a big rise or fall. Mata and Romero need to stay healthy to get a better read on them. Mata is out of options and may be dealt, because of that. As for Castro, SPs has this on the switch hitter: Avg hit tool Above avg power Avg speed Fringy on D in CF/Avg corner OF Avg arm "Signed as a middle infielder, moved to the outfield in 2021. " Summary: "Has the ceiling of an average regular. Wide range of potential outcomes as a lot of his value is tied up in his bat. Projectable frame and switch-hitting ability give him a leg up. Has already shown a solid approach and ability to make consistent, hard contact. If he can get stronger and tap into his raw power, could become a very intriguing prosepct. Has been on the radar for a few years, as scouts identified him as one of the more interesting hitters on a loaded 2022 FCL team."

Some observations on the soxprospects.com rankings: 1. There are 3 pitchers in the top 19: #7 Perales #9 Wikelman #15 Drohan Then, there are 14 in the next 20 that are pitchers: #20 Monegro #23 Dobbins #24 E R-C #25 Guerrero #26 Bastardo #27 Mata #28 Hoppe #31 Fernandez #32 Walter #33 Troye #34 Rogers #36 Gambrell #38 Penrod #39 Paez 2. I expected Gambrell (36) and ICoffey (44) to be ranked much more highly, but most of what I know about these two is what I read on that site and by looking at their stats. 3. Highest Rule 5 eligible: #13 Castro #15 Drohan #17 Paulino #26 Bastardo 4. Biggest drops since April 5th: (Graduated: 2 Casas, 15 EValdez, 17 Murphy, 27 Kelly) Mata 5 to 27 (out of options) Romero 7 to 18 Walter 9 to 32 Paulino 10 to 17 Lugo 12 to 53 Kavadas 20 to NR in top 60 Bonaci 22 to NR in top 60 C Coffey 23 to 37 Koss 28 to NR in top 60 McDonough 30 to 41 5. Biggest gains since April 5th: (Players added to system after April 5 or had not played in system prior to 2023: Teel 3, Cespedes 10, Zanetello 11, A Anderson 22, Arias 30) Abreu 24 to 8 (came in Vaz trade) Meidroth 29 to 12 Castro NR top 30 to 13 Monegro NR top 30 to 20 Dobbins NR top 30 to 23 Bastardo NR top 30 to 26 Hoppe NR top 30 to 28 6. ETAs: By the end of '25: 1. Anthony 2. Mayer 3. Teel 4. Rafaela 6. Yorke 8. Abreu 9. Wikelman 12. Meidroth 15. Drohan 16. Hickey 19. Jordan DHam, Dobbins, Guerrero, Bastardo, Mata, Hoppe Fernandez, Walter, Troye, Gambrell, Scott, McDonough, ICoffey, Rosier After the end of '25: 5. Bleis 7. Perales 10. Cespedes 11. Zanetello 13. Castro 14. Joh. Garcia 17. Paulino 18. Romero 20. Monegro Anderson, E R-C, Alcantara, Arias, Rogers, Brannon, C Coffey, Penrod, Paez Yuten, Ravelo, K Campbell, Cepeda, Sena, Riemer, Soto, Song A question: who do you see jumping up in the standings, the most, in 2024? Who will drop from the top 30 or 60?

soxprospects.com gradutaed E Valdez in November. Roberston graduated in SEP.

Soxprospects.com came out with their end of year rankings... https://www.soxprospects.com/history.htm (movement from July 6 rankings) 1. Anthony (from 4) 2. Mayer (down 1) 3. Teel (NR) 4. Rafaela (passed by Teel) 5. Bleis (down from 2) 6. Yorke (down 1) 7. Perales 8. Abreu (up from 20) 9. Wikelman 10. Cespedes (up from 23) 11. Zanetello 12. Meidroth (up 2) 13. Castro (up 11) 14. Joh. Garcia (up 2) 15. Drohan (down from 6) 16. Hickey (up 5) 17. Paulino 18, Romero (down 10) 19. Jordan (down 4) 20. Monegro (not in top 30)

I think some want a new starting catcher and Wong as the BUC.

Average the two WARs and it's about a 3 over 880 or 2.3 per 660.

It would be nice to see the overall numbers I. Groups like 1-5, 6-10… not just HOF, but maybe all star appearances or total WAR by positions.

Hard to say, but we do have 3-4 very highly ranked prospects with Casas and Bello recently graduated.

McGuire was hurt for part of the yr and his CERA numbers show he’s as good as Wong- pitcher by pitcher.

MLBTR say he could have gotten more, elsewhere.

I think the tandem should project to middle of the pack, with hopes they can improve, but it is one area we can improve. Just not Vaz. He’s in decline.

To me, it will always make the most sense to draft the best player, regardless of position, and part of the equation in the odds on the player making it to the bigs. Those odds favor everyday players. I’m

I wonder if Brez will push the Organization towards drafting pitchers earlier.

18 years ago, today, we traded HRam, Anibal Sanchez and others for Beckett and Lowell.

I’d rather have McGuire, even at equal money.

Christian Vazquez is being heavily shopped. I doubt the Sox would be interested in the journeyman catcher.

Yes! Enjoy your day and family!

It looks that way. At least Cease has2 years, not 1 like Burnes and others.