moonslav59

Best DRS Seasons since 1974 (last 50 years) 30 Betts in 2016 & 2017 RF 22 Vic 2013 RF 20 Beltre '10 3B 19 Betts '19 RF 18 Pedey '11 2b 17 Betts '18 RF 16 JBJ '14 CF 15 Coco '07 CF 15 Leon '17 C 14 Nixon '05, Pedey '09, Aviles '12 at SS, Vaz '14, JBJ '16 & '17, Kike '21 13 Pedey, AGon. Jake 12 Reese, Agon, Pedey, Beni No split seasons: 99 Betts and Pedey 49 JBJ & Vaz 44 Youk 30 Leon 26 Vic 25 AGon 23 Beni 20 Beltre (1 season!) & Kike 17 Betts in CF 16 Moreland 15 Aviles at SS & Dugo in LF The worst: -67 Manny -53 Devers -50 Bogey -21 Nunez & Lugo -19 Duran & Swi -17 Damon -16 VMart at C -15 Pablito

I have never doubted this. I'm a huge fan of defense, especially at SS. When we signed Story, I argued we play Bogey at 2B. I just said, Bogey was better on O, and Story was better on D. I never said who was better, overall. Bogey was not really showing major signes of decline on offense, as measured by OPS+ and wRC+, but his RBI totals fell off a cliff in '21 (and continued after the MVP mandated comp period.) At the end of 2021, I think they were similar in overall value. The known injury to Story was the wrench in the comp, at the time. Story's OPS+ in 2021 was 102, which may have been related to the known injury. I think the difference on offense at the end of 2021 was "significant." Previous seasons: Bogey>Story OPS+ in reverse order of seasons: 2021: 129>102 +28% better 2020: 128>120 +8% better 2019: 139>120 +19% better 2018: 135> 127 +8% better 2017: 95> 84 +11% better 2016: 111> 122 -11% worse (6 years before the comp time.) 2018-2021 134>117 (+17% better) 2019-2021 133>110 (+23% better) OOA 2018-2021 +6 Story -25 Bogey DRS +43 Story (4296 innings) -26 Bogey (4158) They were very close in overall value after 2021- just in very disticntly different ways. '18-'21 16.0 Bogey fWAR (20.1 bWAR) 15.9 Story fWAR (19.9 bWAR

Someone mentioned the COL effect, so that alone was reason to make separate time periods. I also listed year by year numbers, so you could compare 2018 to 2018, 2019 to 2019, and so on. The numbers don't change much, if I do as you seem to think it the only relative thing: OPS+ 2018-2021: 117 Story 134 Bogey 2017-2021: 110 Story 125 Bogey The differentials are way more than the "5" claimed. IMO, Bogey was better on O than Story. Story is way better than Bogey on D.

I said why. I took the 4 previous season before free agency, and also compared only numbers when Story was w COL and Bogey was with BOS, which was a point brought up, not long ago.

I'd be okay with Houck starting and yanking him after 18 batters, but we need our other 4 SP'ers to be innings eaters, so we don't overtax the pen, again.

Look at their last 4-5 years before signing. See my last post. It's more than 5 base points in OPS+ and wRC+. OPS+ for 4 seasons before singing: 117 Story 133 Bogey I'm being kind to Story by dropping the 5th year back: Bogey 135 to 84. Last 5 years: 110 Story 133 Bogey

OPS+/wRC+ Before FA signings... Bogey 2018: 135/133 2019: 139/141 2020: 128/129 2021: 129/129 2022: 131/133 Story: '17: 84/82 (Throw out, if you wish.) '18: 127/128 '19: 120/122 '20: 120/117 '21: 102/98

Just use park adjusted numbers: OPS+ 112 Story w COL 117 Bogey w BOS Bogey was better on O. I stick to my position. Not by a whole lot, but better.

No doubt, it was a hot debate for years. Many assumed Bogey would have signed for a reasonable deal a year or two before reaching free agency or even earlier in 2022. I do think he'd have signed for less than the Padres gave him, but I'm not so sure the $160M/6 deal many seemed to think he'd have taken would actually have been taken, except maybe way back when he signed the extension under DD, with the opt out. I think the Sox felt Story was similar in value as Boey- better D but worse on O. They felt $140M was better that whatever Bogey would have taken. I'm not sure I buy all the shock and awe Bloom put forth, when Bogey signed with SD. I think he knew they were too far apart, all along in the process, and that is why he jumped at Story in March '22. I was not against bringing Bogey back, at what I felt was market value, but clearly we all miscalculated what that 2023 value was. Maybe Bogey knew all along he'd get way more than what Boston was floating. I will say, departing players almost always say the same things. It's hard to know everything that went down and the true feelings Bogey had. If he thought he was worth $240M/8 or even $200M/7, and we never got close to those offers, I don't bame him for bolting. While $200M/7 looks pretty good, right now, back then, it seemed like a lot, and I can understand not offering that, especially with Story in the system, already. I guess the best time would have been before we signed Story, or way back when DD extended him. We should have paid him more and not had an opt-out.

He is one of our hardest returning players to predict performance in 2024. He's barely player for us, and had a couple min hot streaks mixed in with really horrific small sample size stretches. In now way do I see those sample sizes as something we should expect over a 500+ PA season, assuming he gives us one, but it does seem possible he could lay an egg on O. I've said this a number of times, but most players have a few hot streaks that pad their stats to the points of acceptability to greatness, ot they don't last long- even the great fielders. Story is no exception, and he the last two seasons of limited action have seen some wildly bad streaks: 2022: .561 in first 127 PAs 1.154 middle 81 PAs .687 last 188 PAs, which included a .569 stretch of 86 PAs 2023 saw only 168 PAs, so the breakdowns will be super small sample sizes: .348 first 12 PAs 1.667 next 12 PAs (.751 in these 12 + the next 39 PAs) .257 in his next 40 PAs .679 in his last 69 PAs, including .812 in his last 31 PAs I know big K guys bother many people. They do me, as well, when they aren't walking or hitting HRs. Story needs to do more walking and homering.

1. We have no idea what Bogey would have signed for 1, 2, 3 or more years ago. I disagree. I think Story is a phenomenal defender at SS and 2B. He was Bloom's biggest FA signing, and has fallen way short of expectations, for sure. The injury was known, and that is on Bloom

Soxprospects.com says this... Profiles best in a corner outfield position. Solid instincts and efficient routes. Not a flashy defender, but makes the routine plays and does a good job getting to balls on the move. Could be an above-average defender in right field, but projects as fringe-average in center field... Above-average arm. Accurate with good carry.

Have you totally given up on any chance with Story?

What are you thoughts on only Abreu's defense in RF?

What a great power hitter! He was 87.

By drafting mostly HS players he pushed the rebuild plan from 2-4 years to 4-6 years and lost his job.

The rumor was Bello.

Yes, he mentioned "Murphy's Law." LOL!

MLBTR says the Sox had made an offer for Sean Murphy... Cotillo goes on to report that the Red Sox “made a serious run” at a trade with the Athletics to acquire All-Star catcher Sean Murphy, making what Cotillo describes as a “competitive” offer to the A’s before they ultimately settled on a three-team deal with the Braves and Brewers to send Murphy to Atlanta. The Red Sox were among the many known suitors for Murphy last offseason, though the A’s set their asking price rather high, with right-hander Brayan Bello’s name floated in the rumor mill as a potential return. That being said, Boston’s level of interest appears to have been greater than was initially reported, given the new information that Boston made a formal offer for Murphy’s services.

I think, for the most part, the pitcher values listed on BTV are low, if the pitcher is young and has 3+ years of control. I disagree with some of their scores, and I'm pretty certain most trades where you off three $7M players for one $21M player will not be accepted by the $21M player's team, unless the player is being paid a lot of has 1 year (maybe 2) of control left. Here is my opinion on a few Sox players' values: 30 Duran (I'd say 22-25) 29 Bleis (maybe 22-25) 17 Rafaela (I'd say 23-25) 17 Yorke (I'd say 9-11) 14 Scheiber (maybe 7-9) 5.7 Drohan (2-4) 4.0 Wikelman (8-10) 3.3 Abreu (8-10) 3.2 Martin (6-8) 2.5 Cespedes (10-12) 2.3 Monegro (8-10) 2.2 Castro (6-8) 1.8 Jimenez (not sure why he's above about 20 players listed) 0.5 Gambrell (3-5) 0.5 Rosier (2-4) -80 Story (to -37-40)

My bad. You are correct. You guys have a nice set of SP'ers with many years of control.

I'm not for shooting at 2025. I've waited long enough, but if the plan is to go all in for 2025, when Mayer, Teel and maybe Anthony will be MLB ready, and Yorke, Rafaela, Abreu, Casas, Bello and others are nearer to prime, then it may be worth a dice roll.

Yes, it is a gamble. A big one.

I think Houck will end up being the better pitcher going forward, but Crawford has one more year of control.

Why do you keep reading into my posts things I am not even close to suggesting. I'm all for trading Dugo. BTW, most players pad thier stats with hot weeks, here and there.