moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Talk a bout a team who keeps swinging and missing at their top priorities.
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They were pretty damn bad. They finished 4 games above the second worst team in the NL, the Nats. Cohen may give a free agents the idea he will spend what it takes to be a winner, but they have a long way to go. IMO, longer than the Sox, and they have less top prospects near the ML level, too. I'm just not seeing the great appeal of the Mets.
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Indeed. Our problem has been not offering top dollar for the better FAs, not free agents saying no to us.
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I was speaking to the Yamo choice that seems to come down to 4 teams that all look pretty similar, in that respect. I also think the idea that many players do not want to play wit the Sox is overblown. There are many examples of players who signed with us, and even Nate came back after the TEX offer, hoping we'd take him back. If anyone should know about the Sox and "winning organizations," it would be him.
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Of course. I'm not sure any FA looks at the team outlook 2-5 or more years down the line, but I do think our outlook, in terms of the current foundation and the whole system, looks pretty good for the Sox. At worst, we look about the same as the NYM, NYY and SFG. I don't think any of these 4 jump out as the team that is a "winner," if that is what Yamo is looking for as a secondary factor to money.
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True, but they also traded away some talent at the deadline. We lost Turner, Duvall and Paxton plus Dugo and Urias. With $50-70M to spend, we should be able to improve. If Story returns healthy, he could more than match the value of Diaz.
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My point was the Mets will have more holes to fill after getting Yamo than we would. If Yamo is picking a team on which one has the best chance at winning not just in 2024, but over the next 5-10 years, they all look pretty much the same. I might even give the edge to BOS with so many top prospects a year or two away, and a pretty young/prime foundation. Sale comes off the books after '24, so another major acquisition should be very possible, next winter- along with 2-3, this winter. Of course, the Mets could choose to add 5 key player any winter, and the Yanks & Giants have been known to make big offers, too. Of these 4 teams, which is best set up farm & budget wise (combined)? I think one could argue the Sox are 1 or 2.
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What have the Mets, Yanks and Giants done in the last 5 years? While the Yanks have won more than us, they showed significant decline, last year. The Mets, Giants and Sox are pretty much bunched up in wins over 5 years. Choose 6 years, and it looks different: Wins 509 NYY (no rings/ 1 ALCS loss) 464 BOS (1 ring/ 1 ALCS loss) 446 SFG (no rings/no NLCS appearances) 442 NYM (no rings/no NLCS appearances) Choose last 3 years: 273 NYY -no ALCS appearances 267 SFG -no NLCS appearances 253 NYM -no NLCS appearances 248 BOS -1 ALCS loss Looks pretty close, to me.
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I get that sense, too, but I think he learned a lesson from last winter's splurge. The Mets have a lot of high need areas. Spending huge on Yamo will not even come close to making them a winner. I think adding Yamo to the Sox roster brings them closer, but maybe I'm just a homer.
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That is often the case, but going on the assumption that nobody has blown anyone away, yet, do you think if Cohen offers $350M/10 and JH counters with $370M/11, Cohen will jump to $450M/12?
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Agreed. Now, assume he gets close offers from BOS, NYY and NYM, I'm not so sure there is a clear choice on which of these 3 teams is better situated to win in the next 5-10 years. Cohen is likely to spend more. The Yanks have more tradition, but not over the last 20 years. The Sox have the most rings, this century, a better farm and a comparable 26 and 40 man roster foundation as the other two.
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Of course, if someone blows the others away, it will be an easy choice. The Ohtani blockbuster contract was reportedly about even between TOR, SFG and LAD.
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We aren't going to sign him to be our ace. (I hope.) Can you explain why he's a punk? Why a "punk" can't be good at pitching? Not even that good? How good is "not that good" to you? 2021-2023: (200+ IP/190 pitchers) 454 IP (34th in MLB) 151 per season 3.45 ERA (43rd) 84 ERA- (45th) Better than Nate, Montgomery, Kirby & Pablo Lopez 86 xFIP- (37th) 8.3 fWAR (35th) 2.8 per season 2019-2023 (135 pitchers with 350+ IP) 81 ERA- (24th) better than Valdez, Snell and Guasman 86 xFIP- (31st) better than Nate, Eflin, Montgomery and Luzardo 12.1 fWAR (31st, despite missing 2020)
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IMO, if one team offer $5M more, he'll go there. If the difference is less, he may choose where he prefers. I get the point about Cohen being more committed to spending to win, but do the Mets really look more likely to win over the next 5-10 years over BOS? Our farm looks better, and 5 of our top 6 prospects are due by the end of 2025 (9 of our top 11, too.) I'm not saying Yamo is looking at farm projections, but I like our future outlook better than the Mets. The Yanks don't look all that well set for the long term outlook, either. Does SF? If it's about choosing the team that looks better set for winning from 2024 to 2033, there is no clear leader.
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Is it really any more absurd for JH to spend $400M over Cohen spending $500+M (counting lux tax?) I think both have a point where they think it would be wiser to spend that absurdly high price on two players, instead. How do we know where each owner has set their absurd point? Yes, it seems more likely Cohen's would be higher, since his net worth is 4 times JH's, but with both, it's really just a drop in the bucket, as notin stated. I'm not saying the Sox will outbid the Mets. I don't think we will, but to say "We have no chance" is not right, IMO.
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What is the major difference in spending ... $380M out of an estimated $5 billion in net worth of JH vs $500M (counting lux tax) out of and estimated $20 billion net worth. Aren't they both drops in the bucket? Why is it so hard to even imagine JH might want Yamo even more than Cohen? The price is not going to Ohtani limits.
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I'm not arguing that Cohen is not setting things up to get Yamo. I agree he is the front runner. I'm arguing you giving JH near zero percent chance of going above Cohen's comfort zone. Unless Cohen's top limit is absurd, a few teams still have a shot, IMO.
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I was thinking the same thing, the other day. These massive costs for FAs has made the value of tradable pitchers higher. I hope the Sox kick the tires on trading for Castillo, but I know you devalue every Sox player we suggest. (BTW, I devalue Duran, too, but not by as much as you.)
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Probably, yes. He also talked about scaling back for a while and dumped salary, last summer. The point I'm making is Henry is capable of topping the highest point Cohen will go, unless it's some ungodly amount. Cohen is not stupid. Why didn't Cohen get Ohtani- surely he wanted him. He doesn't overpay for everything he wants.
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How have the Red Sox fared in past free agent bidding wars?
moonslav59 replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Those days of comp picks really helped the Sox, when it was designed to try to help the poor team's losing free agents for nothing. 2005 23. Ellsbury & 45. Lowrie (trade for Melancon who was traded for Holt) for OCab (Nomar trade) See what we got for Jake, later. 42. Buchholz & 57. Egan for Pedro 2006 28. Bard & 40. K Johnson for Damon 44. C Clay & 83. A Bates for Mueller 2007 55. Hagadone (included in trade for VMart) for Gonzo 62. R Dent for Foulke 2008 45. Bryan Price for Gagne 2010 20. Vitek & 39, Ranaudo (traded for R Ross) for Wagner 36. Brentz & 57. Workman (later traded for Pivetta) for J Bay 2011 19. Barnes & 36 Owens for VMart 26. Swihart & 40. JBJ (kinda soften the blow a bit) for Beltre 2012 31. B Johnson & 37. Light (traded for Abad) for Pablebon 2014 33. Kopech (part of Sale trade) for Ellsbury Some of those picks are still affecting the team, now. It's amazing how well we did with these picks, most between 20-50th. -
$700M? How do you figure that?
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Too busy to meet with him twice in two days?
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When you see all the broke professional players out there, today, spreading it out makes a lot of sense.
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Yes, and why we signed Sale and Bogey instead of Mookie.
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You assume the richest people will always pay whatever it takes to get what they want, no matter how much the overpay is. That is not always true. They didn't get to be rich by overpaying for everything. I do think Cohen has an upper limit, where he realizes he could spend his money better on 2 players, instead. Cohen may have a big edge, but it's not a slam dunk.
