Maxbialystock

Go back to my blow by blow, play by play, and tell me where that 2d run in the 3d inning comes from. CC walked a ton of people (5), but to me he never looked stressed. Hell, he has owned us this year. On top of which the Yankees scoredd 6 runs. Our half of the 9th inning underscores just how really rotten we were in that game with men on base and with bases loaded and no on out. You, sir, are simply projecting a best case that was very unlikely.

Excuse me, but I didn't just analyze that one inning (the 3d). I also cited just 4 singles in the game and the total abortion of a 9th inning rally when the Sox had the bases loaded with no one out and got zero, repeat zero hits. We got the one run when I think Beni got walked. We were vastly outplayed in that game, top to bottom, and all the blather about mental mistakes won't change that fact. It was 6-2, not 2-1.

Your definition of bonehead plays keeps shifting. I honestly thought it was all about "running into outs." Holt hesitated on a throw home? That's what you got? Do you remember which game? I ask because i'm sure I can find a replay with my mlb.com package. But hesitating is boneheaded? Heck, Devers has been doing that on maybe half of his throws to first. Is that really because he's not paying attention or lacks fundamental game and situation awareness? Love the 343 mental mistakes. With that many the Sox have to be not only the worst team in the AL but maybe in the last 10 or 20 years. 343--Goodness gracious. That's more than 2 a game. Those hitting and pitching numbers pale in comparison. Who the heck cares about OPS's, ERA's, and silly things like that? Eliminate just half of those 343 mental mistakes, and the Sox would have a better record than the Dodgers.

Proof is there, but not just in the box score. Look at the inning by inning and play by play summary available in the mlb.com package. That's what I did for the first game against the Yankees last week (a week ago). Assume Beni stays put in that 3d inning. Men on 1st and 3d and no one out. After Beni's single, no more Sox hits in the 3d. Betts walked. Bogie ground out scoring Nunez from 3d. Devers walked. HanRam ground out for out #2. Next better was Young, who was hitless in the game. I think it a very reasonable assumption the Sox score no more than the run they did score even though Beni was out. Plus the Sox only had four lousy singles in the game, I mean who are we kidding blaming this on Beni's intemperance? And don't forget that great 9th inning rally when we had the based loaded and no outs and again had no hits. The one run came on third walk. We got killed because we couldn't hit Sabathia and they scored 5 runs off our starter.

Blather beyond question--inevitable in a lengthy post. Jackass quite possible. My mistake clearly is trying to explain--over explain-- what surely is an untenable position. I need to admit the obvious, that lousy baserunning is part of our problem, probably costing 5 or even 10 games which we would otherwise have won. Almost as bad is that it looks awful, not even at the level of little leaguers. That alone dwarfs that cheating scandal stuff because in that at least our guys were actually being pretty crafty. How could I be so blind? With just a little more coaching or better decisions by the base coaches and/or by experienced major leaguers like JBJ to say nothing of rookie Beni, we would be even with Cleveland right now. Those 109 more runs than us were just smart baseball. Francona is simply that much better a manager. Just goes to show you can still learn something in your dotage.

Terrific, thanks. I use WAR myself, but am always suspicious because I don't know where the ratings come from. Also, some of those numbers above are low simply because of the number of games played. Thus to me Nunez's 2.0 is probably 3.0. I'm delighted Betts is so high, surely because of his defense. JBJ a little lower than I expected and certainly closer to Bogie than I would put him. And no way I put Bogie higher than Beni. The WAR ratings are for the season to date, so cannot of course reflect anyone who seems to have really turned things around--see especially Fister. I think Devers's defense hurts his overall WAR more than it should--plus of course the much shorter season. If there were a moonslav version of WAR, I probably would go with that instead. The best thing about those WAR ratings is that they generally rate our pitchers higher than our lineup players. Very credible to me.

Fine. Show me. I've provided data that point the other way. For you to be right, I really would like just one example of where terrible baserunning or boneheaded plays cost us even one game, let along several. To me runs scored for and against a team are all about hitting and pitching and occasionally defense, but rarely boneheadedness. I have said the same to moonslav, who has yet to identify just that one game, let alone several. Let's not forget too that every MLB team makes boneheaded mistakes every season. Granted,some more than others. But you guys are saying that the Sox fundamentals--mainly baserunning and "running into outs"--are so poor that the Sox are losing 5 to 10 more games than the average (with respect to boneheadedness) MLB team does. I just think that's unsupportable and must point out that so far it actually is unsupportable because no one has identified the first game lost by those kinds of mistakes. Think about last year. The Sox led MLB in runs scored and in the AL led by over 100 runs. That's huge. Are we now saying that most of those guys,who are on this year's team, were just really smart and that's how they scored all those runs? Of course not. They had Oritz, and almost everyone hit better last year than they are this year. So how suddenly have they become so dumb and so careless with the same manager and the same coaches and that that's why they aren't scoring more runs? This just makes no sense to me. And let's not forget the other key number in tabulating total net runs (us vs. our opponents) scored for a season--the pitching. The pitching has overall been very good this year and better than in years past. That's fully half of the nets runs scored equation and is completely divorced from any tendencies toward boneheadedness--with the possible exception of pitchers not hustling to cover 1b on grounders to the right. I do remember one game thread when Beni's presumed boneheadedness was a really hot topic. It happened in the top of the 3d in the first game of the recent Yankees series when Sabathia was on the mound and we lost 6-2. In the top of the 3d Nunez led off with a single. Beni singled and was out trying to stretch it into a double on a play so close the umpire actually called him safe before a challenge reversed the call. The game thread erupted in condemnations of Beni's sheer stupidity in doing that with no one out. Not the smart play,not at all. Dumb rookie. There's more. That one play then became exhibit 1 in demonstrating that right here in this 3d inning by himself Beni had ruined what was sure to be a great rally to wrest the game from the tentacles of Sabathia and restore order in the universe. We were the better team because we had the better record, etc. Sabathia was over the hill, a fat slob who couldn't even field a bunt (in the 1st inning by Nunez) adequately. This was our inning to make the kill, and Beni took it away from us. Almost ignored was that we actually ended up getting one run to tie the game at 1-1. Completely ignored (my version of what was said) was that we actually never got another hit in the inning. Mookie walked and later stole 3b. Bogie grounded out, scoring Nunez from 3b. Devers walked. HanRam grounded out for the the third out. The next batter would have been Young, who was hitless for the night. Indeed, we had a grand total of 4 singles for the entire game. No dingers--of course not. 0-8 with RISP, naturally. It's our thing. Sabathia walked too many guys, but otherwise was very effective, going 6 and giving up 1, definitely a quality start. The piece de resistance of that particular game came in the 9th inning when the vaunted Sox offense--held back only by stupid baserunning--finally started a great rally. In other words, Betances walked the first two guys and HBP the third to load the bases with nobody out. So then Nunez K's swinging, Beni walks and gets an rbi, Mookie pops up meekly, and Moreland flies to LF for the final out. Ok, that's my game, my evidence that stupid baserunning has not been our problem. Heck I even thought at the time (3d inning) that wanting to stretch that single wasn't all that stupid given how terrible our hitting was in the game. With men on 2d and 3d with no one out, two grounders or nice fly balls could have brought them both home. No further hits needed, thank you. Nevertheless, let's call it stupid because that was the clear consensus on the game thread. Now, what's your game to show I'm wrong? You've got 139 to choose from. Piece of cake. moonslav can play too.

well said.

Could be you're right, but this was after a 19 inning, 6 hour monster of a game. Let's also not forget those two nifty throws, Devers 2 clean singles, and Bogaerts triple. Maybe the appearance of low energy is a good sign. Speaking of low energy, have you noticed that lately Beni is totally disinterested in stealing bases, etc. Part of that is low OBP, of course, but he has been on first with 2b open--several times, I think. Not a nibble. he's learned his lesson. Better to take no risks at all than be branded a dumkopf. He would make Daniel Nava so proud--someone to carry on the tradition of risk-free baserunning.

Heck, yes, it flips. That's why I keep applauding your steadfastness. I love over-reacting, including during games. Last night I unfairly hammered Farrell for challenging a call in the bottom of the 4th when it was raining, the game was in hand, and I was worried about getting it in the books, meaning getting 3 outs in the top of the 5th. Turns out Farrell did no such thing, so I said that on three separate posts. No, I didn't see the players reactions to JBJ's dinger. Are you saying they didn't (much)? Back to the two games. I love making a big deal of them precisely because I was so darn negative about the 10-4 loss and the Yankees series. My snivelling excuse is that it is in fact late in the season, every game counts, the Yankees looked like a freight train about to run us over, etc. On one of these threads today I cited our actual position and that we only need to go 11-11 in the remaining games to make it very tough for the Yankees to catch us. In the same post I gave you due credit for maintaining something like that all along. Kimmi too. I just didn't see it until these two wins. Heck, last night I even saw Devers and Bogaerts make two nifty throws on close plays at first. Plus Bogie's triple and Devers two clean singles. Earth-shattering. I mean we're talking dogs and cats living together. I was just delighted to see a real pulse in this presumed cadaver (my presumption) called the Sox.

Meh. All this talk of looking tired to me is in the eye of the beholder. To me losing feeds on itself. Lousy hitting feeds on itself. All you need are a couple of nice wins to return to the right frame of mind and look energetic as all get out. Today, Sep 7, the Sox have two terrific wins under their belts. The 19 inning jobber took a lot effort by a lot of players. Our former main man Betts had two crucial doubles that led to all 3 runs. ERod had a quality start--surprise, surprise--and the bullpen was incredible. In the 11th inning JBJ saved the game with a throw for the ages, nailing Bautista at the plate for a double play and out of the inning. In the 19th Betts doubled, and took it on himself to be aggressive on a soft fly to CF which conceivably could have been caught. Game over. Congrats to HanRAm for the single and rbi. Last night Fister was Fister and JBJ had that great 3 run dinger to go with nice rbi's by Bogaerts, who tripled, and Devers, who had two solid hits. Devers and Bogaerts both also made nifty throws in I think the 2d inning. This sure didn't look like a bunch of disheartened losers to me. Heck, I'm seeing a pretty decent pulse and am very encouraged. Rest today and 3 vs. the Rays this weekend, about which I'm feeling pretty good. If the Sox go just 11-11 against a pretty favorable 22 game schedule, they have 90 wins, and they are 6-4 in their last 10. The Guardians scare the heck out of me, but Kimmi insists anything can happen in the postseason. Job one is to get there, and right now that looks very likely. If we go 11-11, the Yankees have to go 16-8 just to tie, and they are 5-5 in their last 10 games.

Maybe the question now is, would Jeter go for getting Betts, Bogie, and ERod for Stanton? I was going to say no because Stanton is also a draw, but guess what? With him Miami averages 20K per home game, 3d worst in MLB. All three of those guys have potential and Bett maybe a ton of potential, and their salaries are definitely in line.

That's pretty good, slasher.

I was enraged when Farrell left Porcello in too long in the 10-4 loss to the Jays. And ranted about it endlessly in that game thread. I still think we could have pulled that game out if he had acted sooner, but 10-4 tends to undercut that. I honestly think managers have little influence over the hitting and that one lineup is about as good as another. He does make key decisions on when to remove starters, which reliever to use, etc. But even there so much is up to the pitcher on the mound. Everyone of our starters has been hit hard several times. So has every reliever, including Kimbrel, as great as he has been this season. I would love to say Farrell was masterful Tuesday night in how he used 11 relievers to go 13 scoreless innings and make it possible for Betts to score the winning run in the 19th inning. But the simple fact is those 11 guys all manned up when they were most needed. I have said repeatedly Farrell needs to win to stay in Boston, and almost agree that includes winning the ALDS, as daunting as that now is with the Guardians being so red hot--that is, if you think winning 14 straight in August- September is a significant data point. I am less convinced there is compelling evidence his decisions have cost us games. That's why I point out that the top four American League teams (Astros, Guardians, Sox, and Yankees) have these scoring differentials in all games played to date: the Guardians are +190 for the season, the Astros +170, the Yankees +139, and the Red Sox +81. That's right. The Yankees, 4 games behind us, have actually scored almost 60 more runs (over roughly 140 games) than the Sox. The Guardians have scored 109 more runs (over roughly 140 games). So it seems to me remotely possible that Farrell has done more with less. We are now 5 games behind the Guardians and we darn well should be given those numbers. Maybe we should be 10 games behind.

Very helpful, thanks. 20 with with just 22 games to play looks like a whole bunch, but we get to count every Yankee loss too. If we just break even (against a pretty favorable schedule), go 11-11, and finish with 90 wins, the Yankees would have to go 16-8 to tie. \ In their last 10 games the Sox are 6-4 and the red hot, unbeatable juggernaut Yankees are 5-5. Heck, rumor has it the Sox lost their notorious sign-stealing edge more than 10 games ago. We are working without a net. We are winning 60% of the time--very short sample, granted--with suspect starters and even more suspect hitting. I say all that because Kimmi and moonslav alone have insisted things aren't nearly as dire as nattering nabobs of negativism like me say they are. So thank you again for throwing out those numbers.

You and moonslav, far more than the rest of us, have kept the faith. These last two games have justified that faith, and I seriously do not care it was the last place Jays. Their winning percentage is 46% and ours is 56%. Mathematically (actual games are different of course), the Jays should win 4 out of 10 games with us. Actually, 4.5 out of 10 games.

Heck, I have defended the heck out of him, but have also piled on now and then. I was furious when he left Porcello in too long in game one of the just finished Jays series. We're talking full bore ranting here--during, after, and long after that game was over.

Pete Abraham might just be the most credible commentator covering the Sox. He is paid by both the Globe and NESN--plus he blogs a lot--for a reason. Like Bo, Pete knows baseball.

I'm thoroughly impressed with both you season ticket holders. That is true fandom. I will try to remember that when we disagree because all my game-watching occurs in my study. \ I also hope some of you guys can get together for a Seadogs game. I'm envious because I'm pretty sure I've never actually been to Maine.

Right now he is my #2. I trust him way, way more than Pom, ERod, or Porcello.

Excellent and much needed observation. Sale is key to this rotation. By now so is Fister. After those two Pom, ERod, and Porcello are all inconsistent, with Porcello being the worst and Pom the best. In his good games Pom still needs lots of bullpen help. Porcello can be an innings eater, but too often at a high price. ERod just had a great start when he came out with good stuff, mixing his pitches, keeping it low, and throwing strikes. But will that last?

Adding a big bat would be great, but getting one is not without its own perils. I'm thinking a DH would be more obtainable and less costly. Great point by Oldtimer on HanRam who I also think is in decline and not the guy we want to hang around at that salary, especially when he is primarily a DH. See Ortiz's salaries when he was probably the best DH in the history of the AL. No way Devers won't play every day somewhere. The outfield is pretty much set barring injuries. Catcher is set. What I like about Nunez is his bat (and speed) and the fact that he is creditable at 3b, SS, and 2b. To me we don't need Holt any more. Better still, we are already seeing how Nunez can get lots of starts backing up those three positions, especially if any of 3b, SS, or 2b falters or his hurt. If Devers goes to 1b, all the more need for Nunez.

As we all should have voted. That rule would have denied us some great pitching by the bullpen, that absolutely stupendous double play by JBJ when he nailed Bautista trying to score on a middling fly to CF, and Betts and HanRam's heroics in the 19th inning. It could easily have given the Jays a win they didn't deserve.

I did not say mental blunders can not be proved to have cost a game, but I am saying no one on talksox has been able or willing to do it. At the same time, any of us can cite specific examples of when weak hitting or poor pitching cost us multiple losses. My gosh, our hitting has been so bad MLB is about to nail us for electronic stealing of signs, which Is cheating. You want bad baseball to get mad about, try that on for size. It is ignominious. As for JBJ and maybe Leon's inattention on the base paths last night, I not only don't care because it had no effect on the game, I also don't consider it a good example of bad fundamentals because it was such an unusual situation. I and others had trouble realizing that, even with Leon out at home JBJ could still be a force out at 3b. On a pop fly to left field yet. A natural instinct on a very catchable pop fly to LF is to stay put because you can't advance from 2d base when it is caught. That's also why Leon was so slow to react and out by a mile at home. And, while we're on this topic, lets not forget that pop fly was getting close to infield fly rule territory. The infield fly rule was adopted by MLB to eliminate easy double play force outs created by clever infielders who purposefully dropped popups with runners on 1st and 2d and one or no outs. They wisely recognized the advantage gained by intentionally dropping a popup to get a double play instead of just one easy out.

Two straight wins when badly needed and both wins earned, first by great pitching for 19 innings (did that really happen last night) and second by another great start by Fister and some very welcome power hitting. That's two high quality starts by ERod and Fister. moonslav keeps reminding us we have a pretty good schedule, so there is every reason to hope that just maybe the guys have turned still one more corner. Yankee fans cannot be happy tonight.