Maxbialystock

I think Scherzer can help someone, probably on the west coast, but would be astonished if he came to Boston. That said, if WAR has any value, the current strengths of the Sox are the bullpen and the lineup and decidedly not the rotation even though it is to their credit that all five (Eovaldi, Pivetta, Perez, Richards, and ERod) have started 19 or 20 games apiece. When and if Sale returns with the same ability he had when he arrived in Boston, the Sox mantra could well be, "Eovaldi and Sale, then pray for hail."

d'accord

With the Sox starting Richards and Houck today and ERod tomorrow and the Jays going with Ray (8-5, 3.12), Matz (8-5, 4.34), and Ryu (9-5, 3.44), Toronto winning all three is possible if unlikely. Two seven inning games today will also minimize the exposure of the Jays bullpen.

Probably right.

Game is delayed. NOAA map shows lots of rain.

I know. But he is the 6th starter, so using him tonight would simply bring up the other four (ERod, Eovaldi, Perez, and Pivetta) on their normal rest.

Like you and almost everyone on talksox, I think Sale will be great when he returns next month. But he ain't great yet.

If Richards stumbles badly tonight and has to be pulled early. Houck could be the long reliever, and the other four starters would simply get regular rest and not an extra day's rest. Long reliever Valdez pitched 2.1 innings last night. However, Whitlock last pitched 4 days ago (July 23) and just 1 inning. I doubt Houck will be used tonight because Cora and Bloom both need to know how effective he is as a starter because they must have doubts about Richards, Perez, and ERod.

Exactly. However, tired as he may be, Vazquez has a DWAR of +1.2 and Plawecki's is -.3. Bogey is out because of his wrist. Duran is out because he's 1 for 11 and Ray is a good lefty. Dalbec and Chavis are in because they're available and both righty bats--plus Corduro is a lefty bat and Arroyo is on the IL and Hernandez has to play SS.

About Porcello (yes, again). I was no fan throughout his five years with the Sox and found it painful to watch him pitch. That said, in his five years with the Sox he started an average of 32 games per year and averaged 192 innings per year, which means 6 innings per start, 32 starts per year. That's Kimmi's big point. George Will wrote at book about MLB entitled Men At Work, and to me Porcello fits that perfectly. For six months a year and over five years, every 5th day he brought his lunch pail and worked his buns off. In the John Henry era, I think Jon Lester is the only other Sox pitcher to do that, except he did it for six seasons and for more innings and with better results. Like Lester in 2013 (a WS win season), Porcello in 2018 (also a WS win season) led the Sox in innings and wins even though Price and Sale were the stars of the 2018 team.

What the eff is fWAR?

I think you are right about everywhere. Indeed, it's possible, even likely, the fielding infected the hitting.

How about WAR? Isn't it supposed to take into account all manner of pitching stats? Over 12 seasons as a starter, 2009-2020, Porcello's cumulative WAR was 20.1 and average WAR 1.675, which seems to me to be a tad on the low side. John Lackey, for example, pitched 15 seasons with cumulative WAR of 38.1 and an average of 2.54. His highest salary was $16M vs. Porcello's five years at $21M.

It is indeed a nice 8, which was my point. That said, it does bug me a little to realize that Cora is happy moving Hernandez and his WAR of 3.3 from position to position so Duran and others can have a shot at becoming the 9th. So, even though I think 8 is enough, I agree it probably makes sense to acquire a first baseman who can hit and field. It continues to astound me that Dalbec has struggled at first base, where a zillion other Sox players, this year and in years past, have shifted into and played with ease.

Possible, but, if so, a rarity. I know we all think it's about the money, but almost everyone who gets to play at that level simply loves playing at that level. His career ERA is 4.82, his 2019 ERA with the Sox was 5.89, and his ERA last year with the Mets was 5.49. So maybe he's not sure he can play at the MLB level or maybe his agent says that's what he is hearing from MLB teams.

As Napoleon used to say, back to the WAR's. Here are the current WAR's of the significant and, sad to say, insignificant Sox position players: Devers 3.6 (OPS .935) Hernandez 3.3 (OPS .779) Bogaerts 3.0 (OPS .891) JD Martinez 3.0 (OPS .928) Arroyo 1.5 (OPS .792) Renfroe 1.5 (OPS .784) Vazquez 1.4 (OPS .645) Verdugo 1.2 (OPS .764) INSERT A HUGE GULF AND THEN READ ON Gonzalez .2 (OPS .583) Wong .1 (OPS .636) Duran 0 (OPS .522) Plawecki -.2 (OPS .689) Cordero -.2 (OPS .534) Santana -.4 (OPS .554) Chavis -.5 (OPS .532 Dalbec -1.1 (OPS .656)

Pitching is a great topic for resuming A Realistic View of 2021, part deux. Dgalehouse is adamant that the Sox have too many pitchers: right now they do in fact have 12 position players and 14 pitchers (6 starters and 8 relievers). But I think that is the right mix because you can never have too much pitching, especially when the Sox need quantity to make up for a shortfall in quality starters. In the latest (4 games) Yankees series the only starter to get a win was the Yankees Taillon. The bullpen got all 3 of the Sox wins--and last night Ottavino got the win vs. Toronto. The six starters address moonslav's big point about getting another one because, even with Sale returning (mid-August?), Eovaldi a semi-ace (WAR 3.0), and Houck looking pretty good this time up, the other four--Pivetta (the best of the worst), Perez, ERod, and Richards--do not inspire confidence. Thus too the 8 relievers (currently without Sawamura, WAR .6): Barnes (WAR 1.8), Whitlock (WAR 1.8), Ottavino (WAR .9), Valdez (WAR .5); backed up by two lefties, Taylor and Hernandez (WAR's .7 and .6), and two last resorts, Rios and Workman (.4 and .2). Plus don't forget that Cora's managing of the 2018 postseason demonstrated how starters, regardless of stature, can quickly become relievers with the only criterion being, "can he get guys out?" Also a word about the lineup. Even with a bare bones 12 position players, Cora has been able to rest all his best players and rotate beaucoup guys through CF, 2b, and 1b in an effort to find and keep the best bats and to compensate for Arroyo going on and off the IL. Right now Duran with his speed and lefty bat and reputed potential is getting a shot, just as Dalbec has all season long, Chavis has now and then, etc. But the simple fact is that Cora wants these seven (7) bats in the lineup as much as possible: Devers, JDM, Bogey, Hernandez, Verdugo, Renfroe, and Arroyo. And the 8th bat belongs to Vazquez, who has a lock on catcher (4 of 5 games) because his DWAR is 1.2 (only Hernandez's 1.5 is higher) and his OPS of .645 is par for a catcher. Thus Chavis, Dalbec, Duran, Gonzalez, Santana, and Cordero have all basically been trying out to become the 9th bat and/or fill in for Arroyo. And Hernandez, easily our best centerfielder at bat and in centerfield, gets jerked around so that Cora can keep searching for that 9th bat.

I too suffer--when "A Realistic View at 2021" devolves into an endless discussion of the greatness or ungreatness of one Rick Porcello. As for trades, the subject of this thread, I'm reluctantly in favor of them this month provided Bloom doesn't give away the farm.

A Realistic View of 2021 is no more. It's been replaced by an endless discussion of how to define Porcello statistically. dgalehouse's discussion on how to improve on ERA, ERA+, etc is spot on. Meanwhile, Verdugo is being interviewed on mlb tv, and his tattoos are in full array. And the realistic view of the Sox? They won again, again coming from behind, and are 1.5 ahead of the Rays and leading the winningest conference in MLB. They will likely be tied by the Astros for the best W-L record in the AL.

And, lo and behold, the middle of the order comes thru big time!

Thunder is tangoing! And tomorrow he's going after those french hens.

Whoever said Barnes really isn't that good a closer is absolutely right. He didn't get a single K in the 9th. What good is a save if you aren't striking guys out?

Vazquez takes himself out.

Was that Verdugo? Looks like that slump is long gone. Zoweeee!

Renfroe is so, so lucky. He tried to strike himself out in that at bat, but the pitcher wouldn't let him.