sk7326

Pedroia is still a GREAT defensive player - so much so that he is still a very good starter despite the bat sagging. One of the funny things about life is when writers do the right thing for the wrong reasons. In 2008, they voted Pedroia MVP for scrappy mcscraperson reasons most likely, because his counting stats weren't amazing. But when you dig deeper, add positional value and defense - and Pedroia had a truly elite season, but perhaps not in a way that the average BBWAA member understood. Pedroia doesn't have to be the 2008 model to be well above average. Moving Betts to 2B could be a future step, but not to solve the outfield problem. He is the best CF choice by far right now and that should stay.

The Lackey deal I did not like, although there is at least a chance the Sox got more assets from the deal, but not with a ton of certainty. Pitching and defense will win ultimately - but balance matters too. The Sox should be able to hit. And the team profiles to be somewhere between above average to legitimately very good-excellent defensively. (shortstop is the only place where they might be below average, and that might not even be true) Assuming Ramirez does not let the Wall psyche him out the way Crawford did, he will be fine in LF - and with that in place, the outfield has a chance to be elite defensively.

Agreed. I had no problem with Farrell backing the veteran coming into camp. Nobody will hold him to it, and easier clubhouse politics. I'd be stunned if Vic held on. Weirdly the choice to abandon switch-hitting will help him. As much as he wants to say he did it for health reasons, he had not been a good lefthanded hitter for years.

I do think if Victorino gets hurt as the odd man out ... there should be enough ABs between 1B, LF, and DH that Craig can get 300 PAs in at least. You figure that against certain LHPs, Hanley could take a "day or rest" at DH and get Craig in at LF.

There is a lot of weird revisionism I read about Nap's lost season last year. When in fact he was one of the few Red Sox players who actually was every bit the player he was in 2013. There is something about a guy who doesn't put the ball in play a lot that makes him seem worse than he actually is.

Here is the thing - if Craig is just 75% of the 2013 version, his contract is damn near a heist. It is one of the good reasons the Sox acquired him. It does not take much for that contract to become a very attractive trade piece.

I think it's POSSIBLE that Nava is the odd man out. But Nava makes much more sense to carry as a 4th outfielder than Castillo. I don't think any fan or chat show caller is wondering why Castillo is not playing ahead of Betts, so the PR pressure is not really there. There is plenty of PR cover to start Castillo in Pawtucket. He has just not played a lot of baseball - and his talent is super exciting but it'd be nice for him to face some guys who are trying to get him out for real. Castillo tag teaming with Victorino and providing some defensive depth is a sensible way to go too - but I think having Nava on the big league roster makes more sense in the near term. The other option is to carry 11 pitchers, but I don't think that is happening immediately.

Most likely - although just as true is that he's bad at it.

hey i'm excited. but he could use more reps

I think he said it for the vets and to not needlessly harm Vic's value. Guys don't want injury to drive job loss - so you have to at least go with the program a little politically. If it scores some clubhouse points - good. I suspect the brass is much more unsentimental about it. And besides, the contract thing kicks in too - this is kind of the path of least resistance until the glut gets solved via trade or injury.

I don't think any condition is permanent here. But Castillo just has not played a lot of baseball lately, period. MLB or not, he has just not faced a lot of guys who are actually trying to get him out. Betts and he and the only guys (Bradley too, but his fate is known) who have minor league options. Assuming you don't want to cut one of the other guys (although if you want to cut Victorino, you shouldn't hesitate - last year, sunk cost sort of think), the moves to start the season are limited. Now, if the team carries 11 pitchers, then a spot opens up. I would be genuinely surprised if they started the season with 11 pitchers given the need to ramp up guy's stamina and such. And if they carry 11 pitchers, in some sense Bradley makes more sense to call up than Castillo. Castillo needs the ABs more, and Bradley makes more sense as a defensive substitute.

I swear, anybody who starts getting wound up over spring stats after living through Grady Sizemore's March last year deserves to be slapped.

Oh I'd want at a minimum a projectable lottery ticket for Bradley if I deal him. You know, raw, toolsy guy in Single A - that type. If Bradley focused on contact and gap power and less on a long homerun swing, the batting eye is still excellent. A .270/.330 sort of slash is not crazy to expect, and that combined with a glove like his is an above average starter to maybe fringy All-Star. He and Castillo will start the season at AAA - the contractual and roster reality more or less dictate it.

Doesn't hurt - but I think the industry view on him is clear and hasn't really changed. He is a special defensive player - and what it comes down to is whether you think he can hit at the big league level, or is he doomed to be an extra guy. He's not going to do anything to address that here. He can hit AAA pitching and he can hit in the Spring. I do think the industry view on him is as divided as ever- but on the bright side that means there are believers. But will the believers give the Red Sox something approaching 75 cents on the dollar in a "sell low" context? I don't know. I have not given up on him - the batting eye is there, he just needs to stop pretending he's Mike Napoli. But clearly the outfield situation here has crowded him out. I'd definitely kick the tires on him if I were someone else, but that was true before the spring too.

Realistically, Escobar, Barnes, Wright and Johnson are probably your candidates for "first man up" if the rotation needs to be plugged. Owens or Rodriguez might come - but they won't be part of a taxi squad. If they are recalled, it is probably with intention of them staying.

There are only 10 aces as we think of them in the league now (and possibly less, I'm just using a number). 10 out 150 or so everyday starting pitchers. The reason the Red Sox have not developed an ace in a while is the same reason the Yankees haven't. Because it's hard. And you are right, the draft gobbles these guys up quickly. Occasionally you get a Corey Kluber who was drafted in the 4th round and then developed a knockout pitch coming up ... but that is not a frequent occurance. I have been fanatical in my devotion to not following the spring aside from injuries (and whatever directly influences my fantasy draft). It's just too easy to get swept away, and we know the Red Sox screwed up their outfield for a solid month last season because they got swept away Grady Sizemore's entrails. Another piece of assurance for Fred I think (if he needs it) is that given the realities of innings limits and not wanting to box themselves in like the Nats did with Strasburg in 2012, Owens' big league contribution this year (if any, and this applies to Rodriguez) wasn't going to be for another 2-3 months AT THE EARLIEST. If there is anything to glean from the kids this spring from what I've heard - it's that Rodriguez has a slightly better chance to be a 2015 contributor than was anticipated. (and I still take that with a giant block of salt)

Owens has been terrible. Clearly he is not the pitcher the scouts and the industry think he is. After when you've lost the spring, you've lost the career.

The bigger picture with the rotation - barring a trade is probably more in the ballpark of: Guys who are here now: Porcello, Miley, Buchholz, Masterson, Kelly Guys who could take some spot turns: Escobar, Barnes, Wright, Johnson Guys who could be here later in the year for real: Owens, Rodriguez Frankly, even if Owens or Rodriguez might be better than Kelly or Masterson this year, the sort of innings limits that younger guys have these days would preclude them from making a strong big league contribution until June at the earliest anyway. IMO the odds are very low (barring health) that the Red Sox will be sitting here in June or July legitimately out of it to the point that they'd absolutely won't be buying starting pitching.

The most important factor for the success/failure of the bullpen will be the starter's ability to get into the 7th with some regularity. If the bullpen has to be pitching the 5th and 6th a lot, it's going to be terrible. And I'm not even digging at the Red Sox specifically here. Almost every team has a relatively lousy "early innings" bullpen.

It will or won't iron itself out. The closer is the right guy because he closes. The Giants last year won with their 2nd choice for closer The Red Sox won in 2013 with their 3rd contestant The Cardinals got to the WS in 2013 with their 2nd contestant The Dodgers got to the 2013 NLCS with their 2nd choice The Tigers got to the 2013 LCS with their 82nd choice When Uehara melted down and they ran out Mujica, he was ok. Now having a special guy like Uehara or Rivera is amazing to have - but the gig often figures itself out.

They are - and Badenhop was a crap shoot too. You plan to cycle through guys until the answer pops up. As far as the kids go, I think Barnes and Escobar could help in the pen, but much has to do with how the starters shake out health and form-wise. I suspect the bullpen will be fine as long as it is not overtaxed.

I was watching the other day Olbermann on ESPN2 responding to criticism of Will Ferrell's thing in Arizona. He told the story of Francona having him in the dugout during the spring games and coordinating a prank on Ortiz. Francona said "the guy's would get a kick out of it". For more than anything the games are there so the folks in towns like Fort Myers can make some money out of the deal. The real work largely is done before first pitch. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTHYfD7q_OQ

tricky part of spring training linescores (the same with minor league ones too) is that you don't necessarily know what the guy was supposed to be working on. If Farrell told Buch that we're gonna have you throw 25 changeups, situation be damned - then it's going to affect his performance. The scouting of opposing lineups is limited - I'm not even really sure they are game planning approaches. I share the caution, but more because of last year. It is hard to glean from pretend games whether a guy has gotten in the work he was supposed to.

I think there is truth there. Personally I think they doubled the offer because Lester fundamentally changed his valuation with the 2014 performance. I think - in a way - it is a compliment to the front office that they were not stubborn about the valuation, and were willing to change based on the facts on the ground. But by the time they made that decision, the open market had a chance to take a spin. What the Red Sox did this offseason is a sort of parallel to what the Patriots had to do once Darrelle Revis left. Instead of saying, "let's pay a lot of money for an inferior man to man guy" they just decided "we'll just have to not do that anymore and try something else scheme wise". Once you lose the ace, for whatever reason - you have a few choices. You either find another one, which is hard because those generally don't exist, overpay for an inferior model (James Shields), or you change your mousetrap for what can work given the hand that's been dealt. So the Sox have chosen to boost the offense (and count on the additional marginal value of better offense in a run poor environment) and focus on cheaper guys in the rotation to hold the fort. I still expect them to try to upgrade the rotation - but what that will look like is very much to be written.

No, because they never had to - no draftee has that kind of leverage, especially a collegian