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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    I don't think anyone is actually arguing this point. Lavarnway is something of a false comparison. The view of most of the industry was that Lavarnway couldn't catch - but was worth trying there because if he could, with the bat that is potentially an All-Star. As it turned out his failure was because of both factors at the same time - 1) he couldn't catch and 2) his bat did not really play anywhere else that he COULD play. The projection from those who rate Swihart so highly is that he absolutely can catch - at a very high level. This is not trading Vasquez for Lavarnway. The idea would be that Swihart's bat AND glove would be well above average major league catcher level. Now, if his bat turns out even better than that, there will be pressure in the future to reduce his catcher workload so he can get his bat in the lineup 20-30 more times. But that is a future "good" problem to have - and you can find a Ryan Hanigan clone to take up that slack if it comes to that.
  2. sk7326
    Vasquez is probably a 70 or 80 glove. His replacements are more like 60 or 70. Swihart if he comes up scouts as a 60 or 70 glove too. That could cost the sox a win or two tops. That is a drop off but might be more than offset by say us replacing our 2014 third baseman with an actual breathing human.
  3. sk7326
    I think veteran ballplayers do not believe a guy should be supplanted due to injury. They want the guy to lose the gig on the field. I think that is all Farrell was doing was backing up the incumbents. Farrell does not want to hurt the guy's trade value or undercut him in front of his mates. I take what gets said with a giant block of salt here.
  4. sk7326
    Keith Law's writeups on Sox in updated top 50 http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post/_/id/3754?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_law_marchtop50prospectsupdate
  5. sk7326
    Sports is a silly reason not to love somebody. So she is a Yankee fan. I am sure I have poor taste in aspects of my life also.
  6. sk7326
    Hard to regulate work in the pen ... although the idea of stuff playing up is not unreasonable
  7. sk7326
    Tom Yawkey's relationship with black players was ... flawed
  8. sk7326
    Oh I see the argument by tradition and hurting delicate flowers by not discussing it. But if you are a team like the Phillies, where Hamels is literally the only reason to go to a game possibly ... and opening day is the only date you know you'll bang the place out - it feels like common sense
  9. sk7326
    From a perspective of major league value, we should be ok in the short term ... i feel worse for him than I do for the Sox 2015 chances necessarily
  10. sk7326
    BTW: worrying about the opening day starter is the stupidest thing fans and teams do. If I were a team, I'd start the ace on the second day anyway (if you are at home) - that's when you actually need the ticket bump of starting the #1 guy.
  11. sk7326
    I am not trying to downplay the loss - I feel bad about it. But I think in the bigger picture, our failure won't be because of THAT dropoff. (assuming failure)
  12. sk7326
    Yes. As long as she wasn't one to spike the football after games involving our teams that she wins. I'd certainly promise the reverse.
  13. sk7326
    Here is the thing too - and I know this makes it sound like sour grapes - but we are lamenting the loss of Vasquez' potential, not his demonstrated past performance. There is little to say that we are losing a ton offensively or defensively. It sucks to lose a starter, but it would be like lamenting the loss of Bogaerts at the beginning of last season because you were sad about losing a 20 HR shortstop.
  14. sk7326
    Without runners to drive in, alas ... the idea that clogging the bases is an actual problem is ummm ... not right
  15. sk7326
    It also can help provide a natural experiment to one of the biggest research questions about baseball - how much does pitching matter? Obviously a lot - more than any other individual position - but how much credit do you give pitchers for their role in preventing runs. We have a rotation of meh pitchers on some level, but backed by a team that should be pretty good at the fielding game. The latter seemed to be a crucial component of Kansas City's team last year. If the pitchers can keep the ball in play, can the defense help fill in the gap and how much so?
  16. sk7326
    Defensive metrics can have a blind sport for throwing arms - at the same time a throwing arm in center field is more luxury than mandatory. Bradley's is extraordinary. Betts is nothing special clearly but nothing awful. Tracking balls > throwing into the infield. With young guys you have to rely on scouting outcomes - but nothing that has been written on that end about Castillo says he won't be anything but solid in the outfield. Betts in his limited exposure was fine metrically, and every projection of consequence (Zips-Steamer) has him being above average also. I think the projected optimism for them defensively is warranted. It won't cure all the flaws with the rotation, but it will help the run prevention operation.
  17. sk7326
    Bogaerts is the only defender who should not project as at least above average positionally (and he could be above average, but he has some catching up to do). Ramirez of course is harder to predict, since a lot of it is just mastering the wall. Crawford was the league's best defensive LF, and was a catastrophe in Boston (and now back to fine in LA). If Victorino is healthy, right field is clearly elite - and if it's Castillo, the early evidence is promising. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-2015-al-east-preview-red-sox-blue-jays-orioles-rays-yankees/ Now with Vasquez out, the framing and throwing might go down a bit - but the larger point still holds. The team is well equipped to catch the ball, if the pitchers keep it in the yard.
  18. sk7326
    No, although the above average to excellent defense at 7 of the 8 positions does.
  19. sk7326
    I expect that is the "ideal path". Given they are starting Swihart in AAA, they had plans for him to potentially get to the Show for some time. They have enough catching depth not to rush it. And - to be fair - in losing Vasquez we lost a guy who had a lot of promise, but not a guy who was a sure thing stud either. The idea that Hanigan and Quintero as a two fisted solution is not a huge dropoff from Vasquez is not unreasonable. And Swihart also has an above average-elite defensive projection as well. The pitch framing is something that AAA will help evolve (and where much of Vasquez' promise as), but in terms of throwing arm and athletic ability - there is not a lot lost there. But yeah, you want to give him time to make his developmental targets.
  20. sk7326
    I think that was a non-issue with regards to Lester. What is clear is that they let Lester go because they think there are better options in trade.
  21. sk7326
    1. It's not even a death sentence for pitchers 2. He's not a pitcher. He is probably gone for this year but next year will be fine. I feel bad for him that he might get Wally Pip'd because of this.
  22. sk7326
    Our catcher depth does show here. I think Hanigan-Quintero makes sense if this injury is a matter of "weeks" or less. If this is something like a UCL injury and Swihart continues to show what he has shown recently - he should be in the Show.
  23. sk7326
    With Petey the question with his decline the last two years is how much decline is left. Honestly though, as long as he can still make a lot of contact and field his position at approximately his current level, there is no real near term reason to look to replace him. Betts is an entirely qualified 2B, but if he is established at CF that might be the more valuable spot. That said, could I see a future in three years of Betts at 2B and Margot in CF? Why not? But it's not a "current problem" or "elephant in the room".
  24. sk7326
    Exposed? It shows it's pretty good. They actually have a real contingency plan! Hanigan is perfectly fine. The temptation is whether to move Swihart up immediately. How many teams can actually put a tolerable starter out there with a guy like Vasquez out? I feel worse for Vasquez himself who could get Wally Pip'd for forces out of his control.
  25. sk7326
    Dude, Pedroia is STILL A 4-win player despite his hand problems. He doesn't have to hit any better than this as long as he still picks it with the same quality.
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