sk7326

Most likely - although just as true is that he's bad at it.

hey i'm excited. but he could use more reps

I think he said it for the vets and to not needlessly harm Vic's value. Guys don't want injury to drive job loss - so you have to at least go with the program a little politically. If it scores some clubhouse points - good. I suspect the brass is much more unsentimental about it. And besides, the contract thing kicks in too - this is kind of the path of least resistance until the glut gets solved via trade or injury.

I don't think any condition is permanent here. But Castillo just has not played a lot of baseball lately, period. MLB or not, he has just not faced a lot of guys who are actually trying to get him out. Betts and he and the only guys (Bradley too, but his fate is known) who have minor league options. Assuming you don't want to cut one of the other guys (although if you want to cut Victorino, you shouldn't hesitate - last year, sunk cost sort of think), the moves to start the season are limited. Now, if the team carries 11 pitchers, then a spot opens up. I would be genuinely surprised if they started the season with 11 pitchers given the need to ramp up guy's stamina and such. And if they carry 11 pitchers, in some sense Bradley makes more sense to call up than Castillo. Castillo needs the ABs more, and Bradley makes more sense as a defensive substitute.

I swear, anybody who starts getting wound up over spring stats after living through Grady Sizemore's March last year deserves to be slapped.

Oh I'd want at a minimum a projectable lottery ticket for Bradley if I deal him. You know, raw, toolsy guy in Single A - that type. If Bradley focused on contact and gap power and less on a long homerun swing, the batting eye is still excellent. A .270/.330 sort of slash is not crazy to expect, and that combined with a glove like his is an above average starter to maybe fringy All-Star. He and Castillo will start the season at AAA - the contractual and roster reality more or less dictate it.

Doesn't hurt - but I think the industry view on him is clear and hasn't really changed. He is a special defensive player - and what it comes down to is whether you think he can hit at the big league level, or is he doomed to be an extra guy. He's not going to do anything to address that here. He can hit AAA pitching and he can hit in the Spring. I do think the industry view on him is as divided as ever- but on the bright side that means there are believers. But will the believers give the Red Sox something approaching 75 cents on the dollar in a "sell low" context? I don't know. I have not given up on him - the batting eye is there, he just needs to stop pretending he's Mike Napoli. But clearly the outfield situation here has crowded him out. I'd definitely kick the tires on him if I were someone else, but that was true before the spring too.

Realistically, Escobar, Barnes, Wright and Johnson are probably your candidates for "first man up" if the rotation needs to be plugged. Owens or Rodriguez might come - but they won't be part of a taxi squad. If they are recalled, it is probably with intention of them staying.

There are only 10 aces as we think of them in the league now (and possibly less, I'm just using a number). 10 out 150 or so everyday starting pitchers. The reason the Red Sox have not developed an ace in a while is the same reason the Yankees haven't. Because it's hard. And you are right, the draft gobbles these guys up quickly. Occasionally you get a Corey Kluber who was drafted in the 4th round and then developed a knockout pitch coming up ... but that is not a frequent occurance. I have been fanatical in my devotion to not following the spring aside from injuries (and whatever directly influences my fantasy draft). It's just too easy to get swept away, and we know the Red Sox screwed up their outfield for a solid month last season because they got swept away Grady Sizemore's entrails. Another piece of assurance for Fred I think (if he needs it) is that given the realities of innings limits and not wanting to box themselves in like the Nats did with Strasburg in 2012, Owens' big league contribution this year (if any, and this applies to Rodriguez) wasn't going to be for another 2-3 months AT THE EARLIEST. If there is anything to glean from the kids this spring from what I've heard - it's that Rodriguez has a slightly better chance to be a 2015 contributor than was anticipated. (and I still take that with a giant block of salt)

Owens has been terrible. Clearly he is not the pitcher the scouts and the industry think he is. After when you've lost the spring, you've lost the career.

The bigger picture with the rotation - barring a trade is probably more in the ballpark of: Guys who are here now: Porcello, Miley, Buchholz, Masterson, Kelly Guys who could take some spot turns: Escobar, Barnes, Wright, Johnson Guys who could be here later in the year for real: Owens, Rodriguez Frankly, even if Owens or Rodriguez might be better than Kelly or Masterson this year, the sort of innings limits that younger guys have these days would preclude them from making a strong big league contribution until June at the earliest anyway. IMO the odds are very low (barring health) that the Red Sox will be sitting here in June or July legitimately out of it to the point that they'd absolutely won't be buying starting pitching.

The most important factor for the success/failure of the bullpen will be the starter's ability to get into the 7th with some regularity. If the bullpen has to be pitching the 5th and 6th a lot, it's going to be terrible. And I'm not even digging at the Red Sox specifically here. Almost every team has a relatively lousy "early innings" bullpen.

It will or won't iron itself out. The closer is the right guy because he closes. The Giants last year won with their 2nd choice for closer The Red Sox won in 2013 with their 3rd contestant The Cardinals got to the WS in 2013 with their 2nd contestant The Dodgers got to the 2013 NLCS with their 2nd choice The Tigers got to the 2013 LCS with their 82nd choice When Uehara melted down and they ran out Mujica, he was ok. Now having a special guy like Uehara or Rivera is amazing to have - but the gig often figures itself out.

They are - and Badenhop was a crap shoot too. You plan to cycle through guys until the answer pops up. As far as the kids go, I think Barnes and Escobar could help in the pen, but much has to do with how the starters shake out health and form-wise. I suspect the bullpen will be fine as long as it is not overtaxed.

I was watching the other day Olbermann on ESPN2 responding to criticism of Will Ferrell's thing in Arizona. He told the story of Francona having him in the dugout during the spring games and coordinating a prank on Ortiz. Francona said "the guy's would get a kick out of it". For more than anything the games are there so the folks in towns like Fort Myers can make some money out of the deal. The real work largely is done before first pitch. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTHYfD7q_OQ

tricky part of spring training linescores (the same with minor league ones too) is that you don't necessarily know what the guy was supposed to be working on. If Farrell told Buch that we're gonna have you throw 25 changeups, situation be damned - then it's going to affect his performance. The scouting of opposing lineups is limited - I'm not even really sure they are game planning approaches. I share the caution, but more because of last year. It is hard to glean from pretend games whether a guy has gotten in the work he was supposed to.

I think there is truth there. Personally I think they doubled the offer because Lester fundamentally changed his valuation with the 2014 performance. I think - in a way - it is a compliment to the front office that they were not stubborn about the valuation, and were willing to change based on the facts on the ground. But by the time they made that decision, the open market had a chance to take a spin. What the Red Sox did this offseason is a sort of parallel to what the Patriots had to do once Darrelle Revis left. Instead of saying, "let's pay a lot of money for an inferior man to man guy" they just decided "we'll just have to not do that anymore and try something else scheme wise". Once you lose the ace, for whatever reason - you have a few choices. You either find another one, which is hard because those generally don't exist, overpay for an inferior model (James Shields), or you change your mousetrap for what can work given the hand that's been dealt. So the Sox have chosen to boost the offense (and count on the additional marginal value of better offense in a run poor environment) and focus on cheaper guys in the rotation to hold the fort. I still expect them to try to upgrade the rotation - but what that will look like is very much to be written.

No, because they never had to - no draftee has that kind of leverage, especially a collegian

with negative run differentials both years! so they've been lucky too (although their bullpen work has been good both years, and i do think that can help the close game stuff a little bit). I know jack talks about the rotation being key - but the yankees pitching last year was excellent - it was a hideous offense that was the problem. Now will Stephen Drew without a full camp no longer be the major league's worst regular? I think that is a reasonable bet - especially if BJ Upton is still breathing. But him and Tex do not a 100 run difference make. The AL East is a coingflip again - just like 2013 and 2014. Now I think that Baltimore probably has the lowest probability of a bad season, but I don't think that means they will win the division either. Tampa probably needs the most help, because the youngsters do not seem as good as the group which led the 2008-2013 explosion. Really it's going to be all about close game luck and injuries - which should make it a fun ride.

maybe, but look at it this way. If there was no draft, this is about what the #1 overall pick would be making. The bar for Moncada to make the money stand up is not that high (basically 2-3 average-above average seasons)

When a good hitter strikes out in a big situation - it sure feels like he choked to me. Losses ruin my night. But I'm also not a GM or talent evaluator - I wouldn't want them to look at players so reductively.

they complement each other. And let's be real here - stats tell you what happened, and perhaps why it happened. Turning into actionable stuff on the field is tough - and that is what baseball lifers are for. It's what separates managers in this day and age.

me neither (and neither him clearly) - but it's a pithy expression

And thus ends the competition in CF. Obviously this injury is not a season stealer - but oblique is tough to heal, and if it means not working out for 2+ weeks, everybody has the requisite cover to start him in AAA (or extended spring with a cup of coffee in Pawtucket when it's go time)

And just like that, the CF position is resolved in the near term ...