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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    There is a budget yes, but it is a choice. I don't think they are tight but they do have valuations they want to stick with. But in terms of "budget" it is really about how much of John Henry's money does he want to commit vs whether anybody can keep the lights on.
  2. sk7326
    I don't love the rotation - but I am 100% certain that this is not going to be the rotation this team enters crunch time with.
  3. sk7326
    86-76, wins the division. The 86-76 probably undersells what I think of the Sox qualitywise, but the division is so even that outside of Tampa, it is hard to predict anybody getting away from the field. Now the last two years, in fact a monster team emerged, but predicting four teams around 83-87 wins is the percentage play.
  4. sk7326
    If the catcher defense is good, then things will be fine. The offense was going to be lousy most likely regardless. What might be worrisome is that industry guys absolutely gush about Vasquez' pitch framing and I don't know enough about the other guys to see where they are in that area. But I am assuming it's not "horrible".
  5. sk7326
    The Porcello deal is an overpay. At the same time, does he have a reasonable probability of providing sufficient WAR for the investment? Yes. Absolutely. I have no idea if Betts is going to be a star - but he is doing everything a star does. (handled every jump in level given to him quickly) It's one thing for us to say "slow down, let's be patient with him". But it's another when he is forcing us to believe in him. HamRam will hit, and hit a lot. Question is entirely about keeping him upright. Pedroia of 2013/2014 level offense is a well above average starter (when you consider the defense). Pedroia with his pop back is a legitimate MVP candidate. I am not betting on the latter, but clearly day 1 is positive. Of course besides the small sample size caveat - Philadelphia is a bad team.
  6. sk7326
    I am nervous - to be on the cusp of an undefeated season like this. I hope you all appreciate the history that is being made here.
  7. sk7326
    I don't even think you have to look it up much. As a general rule, every pitcher is at least tried as a starter. There are the odd Craig Hansens or Josh Fields who are drafted to close right away, but those have not turned out well. I think it's just common sense - you try them as starter, but once you conclude the guy doesn't have a third pitch (for instance), then they move to the reliever pile.
  8. sk7326
    The idea that starters can be broken in via the bullpen has been around since Earl Weaver. In a case like Barnes, to me it is less about what is good for him than how can he be maximized. If Barnes has 3 pitches already and is not going to be learning a lot at AAA then he can make a big league contribution. If there is not an opening to start now, the bullpen makes sense - especially with the severe lack of multi-inning guys in the league generally. An innovative idea that I think would make sense these days would be to put a guy like Barnes in your bullpen for semi-planned 40-50 pitch outings. Doing that you could get 100 innings of good relief pitching maybe.
  9. sk7326
    There is some truth here, but it's not like it's 1983. Teams run more now than they did in say 2007, but teams generally don't run all that much. And very very few runners have green lights that the pitchers influence. Hell, the Red Sox led the league in SBs in 2013 based on Jacoby Ellsbury and basically cherry-picking. I am also generally not sure how much catchers influence hit and run calls, which is where significant amounts of "managerial aggressiveness" takes place.
  10. sk7326
    Breathe. Here is the basic bet they made. A durable rotation with some measure of youth + a good offense + a good defense + a good bullpen = a team good enough to stay near the top of the table while the starting pitching market reveals itself. Considering that the Red Sox in such a pitiful 2014 season did not actually truly fall out of the race until the all-star break, this seems like a safe bet (health caveat noted) What is unfortunate for the Sox is how good the baseball economics are. The days of a Montreal team needing to deal an incumbent Cy Young award winner after the first of his "Koufax years" for monetary reasons is more or less dead. You take that and add the second wildcard spot - and most teams have to (because of fan expectations) start the season as if there is a Kansas City Royals run in them. If the team gives management the chance to add another guy - they will. Everything they have done to this point is set up to do so.
  11. sk7326
    Because people shouldn't get worked up about guys getting their work in against the Crash Davis' of the future.
  12. sk7326
    The latter is true, but since base stealing is not really a major part of the attack for most teams - the net effect is small. Teams run more now than in the early part of the decade, but the importance of probability has been underlined to such a degree that teams don't really run that much compared to days of yore regardless. Pitch framing depends on the pitcher quality - stop the presses. But there are just more chances to materially impact the game with pitch framing, many more pitches.
  13. sk7326
    That said, baserunner caught stealing has quite a bit to do with the overall baserunner holding concept. The Red Sox for years had been indifferent - the basic idea, get the guy at the plate guy first and foremost.
  14. sk7326
    It's admirable - and certainly simply appealing to pundit's authority is not good. I do caution though that considering minor league stat lines is tricky without considering age and what the developmental goals were.
  15. sk7326
    Rag arm was unfortunate with Crisp, but it's also one trait that is minor for CFs - you don't usually have cannons there anyway. With him it's interesting - it's one of those cases where because he was a mild disappointment compared to the hype in Boston, he is reflected on poorly. But really you look at what he is now - that is a pretty good player. Good base stealer, has some pop, great range in CF.
  16. sk7326
    Swihart if he arrives in Boston in any capacity at all in 2015 would have arrived there a full two years younger than Varitek. That matters a great deal in the view of the numbers.
  17. sk7326
    I think the race discussion as it were was about the former owner - that stuff certainly does not resonate now. Pedro and Papi more or less fixed that for good. I think you are confusing topics here. There was significant evidence of a self-imposed quota on non-white players in Yawkey's time. As far as JBJ goes - he kept getting chances because he was a special defensive player, and he was not going to learn anything at AAA - he had shown he could hit minor league pitching after all. But as long as he kept thinking he needed to hit homeruns, his approach was fatally infected.
  18. sk7326
    Agreed sort of - although the yawning gap in time between Jackie Robinson and Pumpsie Green is baseball too. It's a part of the Red Sox legacy (under Yawkey) and it materially affected the ability to put championship teams out there. As a consequence I suppose, it made the Tiant stars and the Pedro ones such atypically joyous events.
  19. sk7326
    I don't think anyone is actually arguing this point. Lavarnway is something of a false comparison. The view of most of the industry was that Lavarnway couldn't catch - but was worth trying there because if he could, with the bat that is potentially an All-Star. As it turned out his failure was because of both factors at the same time - 1) he couldn't catch and 2) his bat did not really play anywhere else that he COULD play. The projection from those who rate Swihart so highly is that he absolutely can catch - at a very high level. This is not trading Vasquez for Lavarnway. The idea would be that Swihart's bat AND glove would be well above average major league catcher level. Now, if his bat turns out even better than that, there will be pressure in the future to reduce his catcher workload so he can get his bat in the lineup 20-30 more times. But that is a future "good" problem to have - and you can find a Ryan Hanigan clone to take up that slack if it comes to that.
  20. sk7326
    Vasquez is probably a 70 or 80 glove. His replacements are more like 60 or 70. Swihart if he comes up scouts as a 60 or 70 glove too. That could cost the sox a win or two tops. That is a drop off but might be more than offset by say us replacing our 2014 third baseman with an actual breathing human.
  21. sk7326
    I think veteran ballplayers do not believe a guy should be supplanted due to injury. They want the guy to lose the gig on the field. I think that is all Farrell was doing was backing up the incumbents. Farrell does not want to hurt the guy's trade value or undercut him in front of his mates. I take what gets said with a giant block of salt here.
  22. sk7326
    Keith Law's writeups on Sox in updated top 50 http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post/_/id/3754?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_law_marchtop50prospectsupdate
  23. sk7326
    Sports is a silly reason not to love somebody. So she is a Yankee fan. I am sure I have poor taste in aspects of my life also.
  24. sk7326
    Hard to regulate work in the pen ... although the idea of stuff playing up is not unreasonable
  25. sk7326
    Tom Yawkey's relationship with black players was ... flawed
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