sk7326

Pitch F/X ... whether that data gets on the scoreboard is another matter (my guess is no)

It is a fair way to go - and the big arms in Round 5 to 10 are still being drafted as starters (every pitcher is drafted as a starter). But then you determine quickly - does the guy have the third pitch, can the guy hold his velocity. If the answer is no (the answer is usually no) - then to the bullpen, where you don't have to worry about things like that. The Red Sox if they have erred, is taking high probability starters in those spots - you know, guys with command 88-92, know how to pitch. The ceiling is limited, and the bullpen utility becomes dicier. For a good reliever, you're looking at one or two wipeout pitches, and the other things (great control - still has to be acceptable, third pitch, turning lineup over) are less important.

Actually the rotation as is the last 2 months has been legitimately "decent" ...

Bringing back Lackey is a totally reasonable idea.

Could easily see Miley and Kelly as trade filler one'd think. Also looking at the approach to the rotation generally will be worthwhile - honestly, based on the last couple of months, razing the bullpen might actually be more important than finding a premium starter. (they are not mutually exclusive goals)

The stadium guns (the ones that make it onto the scoreboard) are usually jacked I think - Pitching equivalent of chicks digging the longball. But the scouts bring their own guns (and one assumes the Sox are no different). There is no real reason for the opposing teams to not know what the guy is actually throwing. And anyway, straight, poorly located 97 gets hit.

Pedroia's salary looks bad because it has 8 figures, but that is cheap for an above average starter. Is he more valuable to the Sox than to someone else? Yes - but that's ok. The shape of his contract makes it very hard to be an actual albatross (and it's downright cheap when you consider baseball inflation). Betts has done everything a superstar would do in an age 22 sort of year. Bogaerts is not that far behind. This team is ready to contend next year - the pitching staff needs a lot of help, but the prospect tools are there to do so.

I think it is a pay increase - you figure a raise from NESN was still cheaper than paying Dick Enberg

San Diego is not bad place to end up - weather is better.

It will be an interesting mix. If Wren is #3 it's ok. In Atlanta his staff hated him - all left and came right back when he got canned. That of course is the most dangerous red flag for a management person. But he knows baseball - and if he is not in charge of any people he could help.

There is enough without "the farm" to do it. Key thing to remember is some of the guys dealt might end up quite good - occupational risk.

It might mean they are trying to free up 3B too.

That is a lot of money for a full time DH (an absolute full time DH - Hanley may or may not be one) who cannot hit lefties. That trade makes sense in a world where you think Hanley's hitting is a permanent problem.

I think shopping for Harvey or Sale will be on their list. But otherwise, yes the starting pitching is competitive. The team has played well the last 2 months - and at least on the lineup side, that looks sustainable. As far as who gets deals? Betts and Bogaerts are untouchable. Bogaerts looks like he's going to be a rock solid player - where the only question is whether the ceiling is All-Star or MVP level. Betts has done everything you'd expect a superstar to do relative to his age. Swihart would be close to untouchable if the Sox did not have a really solid alternative in house. Everybody else is some form of negotiable. That said, on the farm Devers, Moncada, Espinoza and Benintendi in limited run have all shown a lot of signs of having star+ level in them. They would be hard to let go. Margot has admirers across the league too - but the Red Sox have a lot of centerfielders, and Margot could help a trade along.

BTW: It is also funny somebody that a guy some of my high school classmates played in South Shore League baseball is the Red Sox GM now.

I said Vasquez because Swihart is probably a centerpiece of a significant deal. My view on the catching thing is simple - Swihart has proven he can start for somebody. Vasquez sure looks like he could start for somebody (he has had less big league experience at this point, so there is less which is solid). If one of them will get 110-120 starts, it makes more sense for the 40-50 starts to be soaked up by a Hanigan sort and use the other guy to fill holes elsewhere. One thing to note when dealing some of the guys who are tradeable - some of them will turn out really good. And that's ok - as long as the guy we got back is good and the guy who we chose for said position is doing the job.

Sensible, good choice. Huge in the player development area which has gone ... will help keep the stuff which has worked here and to limit the brain drain that the org feared I imagine.

He is interesting trade filler because of his contract - but he is what he is ... a useful starter for a marathon.

This is not basketball where there is any significant difference between a wild card team and a top seed ... you get to the tournament, you can win it. The best team only wins it occasionally. This team in terms of hitting and defense is ready to content next year - the pitching is another matter, but the Red Sox are flush with resources to address that. Vasquez is not sufficient for said deal - but as part of one? Absolutely.

1. They will try to contend in 2016. Some simple reasons here. First of all, the fans pay too much money to not expect a sincere attempt at contention. (this year was a sincere attempt - failed, but sincere) Second, the changes needed to get to reasonable contention are significant - but very much in the realm of possible. 2. As the last 2 months have shown, the everyday lineup is in good shape. Yeah you need to find a 1B you like ... the notion of lineup protection is basically bunk, but still the odds of Travis Shaw being anything more than Daniel Nava in terms of an "answer" is low. Ramirez could be an answer - or somebody else. But the team has significant ways forward at all of the positions - and will be above average in most of them (in terms of total package - I agree a corner bat in the outfield would be nice, not urgent but it'd help balance things), and have serious star capability in a couple. Even positions I have less faith in (hello, third base) isn't that bad. 3. Pitching staff needs a lot of work - at least one good starter, and basically reshuffling the bullpen. This is all true - but that's Dombrowski's job - and the team has a lot of prospects who HAVE to be moved soon. It sounds nice to build a cache of blocked starters like this is the reserve clause days. But as a practical matter, guys who get blocked will often go sideways or worse (hello Cecchini, Jesus Montero). Sometimes this is revelation of limited talent - sometimes it is just human nature (staying hungry, keeping your head up or whatever is cute until it looks like a promotion is flat out never going to happen). The Red Sox are bursting with middle of the diamond talent, among the hardest things to staff - and so moving that for significant big league return is a good idea. 4. Swihart's .680 OPS has to be looked at in terms of the shape of the production - considering how overwhelmed he was (and how overpromoted) he has settled in well. He was very bad for a couple of months and pretty darn good since. He's a baby. But the Red Sox have a surplus of catching - so moving one is a good use of resources in the right deal. So is moving Margot - who is probably going to be a Top 20 prospect in the next batch of rankings by folks who do that sort of thing - because the Red Sox have 7000 quality centrfielders including one right behind him (Benintendi) who has been the best performer of the Class of 2015 Draft so far (the entire class, not just Boston's). 5. One of Cherington's mistakes perhaps was - well not overvaluing the Boston prospects (the major league evidence is in his favor), but not being aggressive in moving the non-superstar sorts. Dombrowski won't do that. You look in the system, and Moncada, Espinoza, Devers, Benintendi (who can't be dealt anyway except as a PTBNL this offseason) have the sort of ceiling a team like Boston keeps, while the other guys are bulk to get major league stuff. There are some really good players in that bulk - our bulk is better than a lot of other teams - but now Dombrowski will probably take it for a walk more readily. The GM's job will be to make more.

Fair enough - although the word puppet was an interesting choice. GM will be in charge of keeping the machine running - whether it be for Red Sox talent or trade currency. Somebody from the Astros or Cardinals makes sense - both have had created an organizational advantage in developing pitching. Clearly the Sox have had no issue with the position players.

Disagree - the job description changed. DD's focus is on the major league roster - I don't think he has the time or interest to focus on the rest of the baseball operation (which is a pretty big job). GM in Boston under this org chart is the guy in charge of the "other stuff" which DD is not looking at - and probably the guy the day to day staff interacts with the most. It's a promotion from an assistant gig - but no, it's not a chance to be the one true baseball fuhrer. A guy who can step in and keep the executive talent here will not be nothing.

That is a fair assessment - but also noting that (and this goes for Vasquez too) 23 year olds do not stay the same. What will be interesting for Vasquez will be the future of home plate umpiring. Will balls and strikes be automated in the next decade? It will impact guys like Vasquez particularly. But his pitch framing is remarkable, and as long as flawed humans are forced to do that job, he is a legitimate source of advantage. Basically you are looking at one guy with some sort of Molina brother upside - obviously the offense will steer you to which one you think, and another with some legitimate "middle class man's" Buster Posey. The latter has a significant age advantage. I think the odds are he gets moved because of his market value. The value has been enhanced by this year, when he was overpromoted because of injury - had to figure out the big leagues on the fly, and has turned out to be pretty darn good with flashes of a hell of a lot more.

Makes sense - job now is a gussied up player development director gig - which is good if you are moving up the ladder. Astros shop (which is tied to Saint Louis) as good an any there is.

Swihart is a great athlete - which is uncommon for a catcher. Really there is a possibility that long term he might do something like Buster Posey where he plays some 1B or 3B just to not have his bat out of the lineup for 40 or 50 games. But is also makes his toolset very rare for catchers, and thus the decision for the Red Sox legitimately interesting. This decision is doubly fascinating since a lot of posters are assuming Christian Vasquez can actually hit - which is a largely untested assertion. We know Swihart can cut it defensively - maybe not as good as Vasquez, but that is because Vasquez is very gifted on that side.