sk7326

It was difficult for Ben - because he kept trading for Proven Closers (for whatever reason) without noticing the underlying pitchers (and none of them were actually that good - although Melancon is a good reliever the Red Sox bailed on) ... instead of just getting pitchers and figuring it out. You look at teams who have won recently - and they found their 9th inning guy from the existing inventory. The Red Sox won a title with this - and the dumb luck that they were stuck with Koji who was brilliant. The best approach to a bullpen is churn and sheer numbers - that has not changed. I agree the bullpen needed help - but the cure and the price to get it seem very off kilter. Starting pitchers have been moved for less. (Hamels was moved for not much more for par exemple)

Nobody gets hurt by the option - worst case, it's not my money ... realistic range = mild overpay for mediocrity or a good pitcher at a robbery rate ...

The bullpen was a key element in 2014, 2013, 2012 and 2011 too ... let's not pretend this is something hip and new. And all of those title winners had "closers" who were not the team's original idea.

This trade is paying Maserati prices for a Camry - at a time when nobody is paying Camry prices for a Camry.

Harder to carefully manage a workload in the 8th - many of the highest leverage spots pop up there. Now if the other 5-6 relievers they sign or whatever can help, so be it. But bullpen performance has historically been very volatile, enough that signing particular names to big deals is riskier than other aspects of a team.

A closer does not make LOTS ... certainly not 2 premium prospect LOTS

It's not a salary cap - just a lifestyle choice. That said, this was too much for a single reliever - even a good one.

I am amazed you are making the "battle proven, 9th inning, grumble grumble" thing - I thought you were smarter than that. Wade Davis was a retread - so was Koji Uehara. They were just retreads who were either old or did not have the third pitch required to make a competent starter. Arms are proven by proving. Craig Breslow was a retread also. There was no real need for a proven closer - there is a need for a starter. Now, signing a starter via free agency was always available. But a trade puts you in play to get a younger, cheaper starter. Every free agent of any stripe outside of Jason Heyward, you are carrying significant "other side of the mountain" risk - but you knew that. I don't even care if Margot turned out to be a superstar - it is that a quality position prospect who is close to the bigs (like inside of 2 seasons) is worth more than any single reliever. If he was in a Chris Sale deal, then you shrug and say "that's the price". You seem to be thinking I am against trading prospects - heck no. I am against trading premium prospects for so little major league value.

No, he is replacing Koji - Kimbrel has no experience doing anything but three out - no baserunner 9th inning pitching. Koji goes to some sort of setup role, which is a bit more taxing for a dude his age. There are still four other relievers to land. And none of this exempts the exorbitant price paid to get Kimbrel. That cannot be separated from the acquisition. Apparently there was a "holy s***, we need a closer" movement afoot I did not read about being out of the Sports Hub/EEI range like I am. Who knew?

It's the sting of trading 4 players for Kimbrel. Getting Price for money is reasonable. Separate moves. Separate thoughts.

Price is fine. The moves are evaluated separately. One is a good move, one is a silly one. The bullpen did not improve that much since fixing the 9th inning a little doesn't help this team that much.

It is modestly improving the one part of their bullpen which was actually pretty good. Panda was an attempt to improve a position they got literally nothing out of. Year 1 was a failure - but the attempt actually made sense. Panda being an average regular would have been a significant (overpaid, but significant) improvement because their alternatives were piles of garbage. Ramirez (well, Ramirez and Panda together) was genuinely weird, and was stated at the time. The Red Sox are getting more than they did when they dealt for Andersen - they are also paying more. And even if the prospect is blocked, it doesn't make the "near big league premium position prospect is worth a 9th inning reliver" calculation any more sensible.

Kimbrel's FIP was 2.68 - which is fine, and a run over his career otherwise, and a shade worse than Uehara last year. The defense was atrocious.

Honestly converting Kelly made more sense than trading all that stuff for Kimbrel.

Of course. And making Bagwell for Andersen flavoured (obviously time will judge the results, but it's the valuation) moves never stop being bad ideas. It's not that they got a poor pitcher - they got a good pitcher coming off of his worst season (but still good). It is the price they paid, the opportunity cost and what is says about priorities and valuation. And Kimbrel helps settle the one inning where things were actually not too bad. You'd like a much more significant MARGINAL improvement when trading quality stuff.

Indeed - and for the price of one Craig Kimbrel, they'd sign 10 of them and keep the 5 that worked out. Note that Kimbrel came off of his worst season as a pro.

Oh I wouldn't want Papelbon either. You could probably get the job done necessary for an entire bullpen for that price. It's just classic glazed eyes at the 9th inning. Almost every team that has gotten to the finish line the last few years got this gig done for much cheaper - in terms of dollars and prospects. Padres get credit - turned a luxury item into four prospects, one who might do more for their team next season than Kimbrel does for Boston. (not likely, but not impossible)

Glad you mentioned Foulke. Foulke pitched 105, 89, 81, 77 and 86 innings in the years before he got to Boston. (and yes, this might have been causal to his arm troubles, but flags fly forever). He pitched 83 innings for Boston. All of those numbers are more than any season Kimbrel has pitched. Foulke was used to get 8th inning saves, and the reason he was the choice was because he could pitch (and was called on, all the time) in very high leverage spots. Kimbrel has been dynamite in the 9th inning, 0 runners inherited spot that is 2015 closing. He has excelled at a far easier gig than Foulke had. And indeed, Foulke excelled in multiple obscenely difficult spots.

The guess is Price. Now that the industry knows what the Sox will pay for a solid closer, they might not be able to trade for a guy without giving up Betts. That said, they might have already decided it's worthwhile

Papelbon is fully capable of being a "proven closer" - which is not a particularly taxing gig. O'Day is basically the best reliever in the league at his specific job - getting righties out. This move limits the Sox options in other deals (without being similar overpays) and is just a fairly myopic view of bullpen construction.

Not much less than Kimbrel. Uehara was the better pitcher last season, even when you account for bulk. It's a lot easier to regulate a dude's workload as a Mr 9th inning. Uehara has experience with coming into tougher spots than Kimbrel, but clearly he has to be managed like a faberge egg now. That also happens to be how Kimbrel has been managed his whole career. Now I see a lot of "Dombrowski did what he had to do" and excitement the Red Sox traded for a reliever they had heard of. Some fairly classic Mel Hall-era Yankees thinking there. This was a bizarre use of prospect heft, and a fairly risky pickup.

no silly. i am saying we built an elite bullpen for peanuts. so did the royals. wade davis was a failed starter. so was uehara. all relievers were at some point.

It's why the Padres get a lot of credit - they got four guys with major league projection for 60 innings.

Well you hoard them to get a starter, not a "proven closer" ... runs counter to how teams have been sourcing that position i.e. their own pitchers, sifting through other team's garbage, converting failed starters

Tyson Ross was not good last season. Carrasco is interesting. But the Sox used a couple of their best bullets for a 60 inning pitcher.