sk7326

(one of Alfonso Sorianio's extensions with the Cubs IIRC) LF is where teams park guys who can't field and the DH spot is occupied - the history is long and vast. Hanley's inability to it is a remarkable outlier. LF is the easiest position on the field (well that or 1B, and you can argue both). For whatever reason it didn't work - on to the other easiest position.

I think that number is higher than you think and largely a function of opportunity. For instance, compare with Tampa Bay (who is a useful control group here) and their highest save guys since 2010 2010: Rafael Soriano v Papelbon (93.8% v 82%) 2011: Kyle Farnsworth v Papelbon (80.6% v 91%) 2012: Fernando Rodney v Papelbon (96% v 90%) 2013: Fernando Rodney v Papelbon (82.2% v 81%) 2014: Jake McGee v Papelbon (83% v 91%) 2015: Brad Boxberger v Papelbon (87.2% v 92.3%) Tampa Bay could approximate Papelbon's performance (and if you think of it - the differences in pct results in only a couple of wins over a season if that) while sifting through the dumpster. I am sure Papelbon could deliver a solid closer's performance this year. But so could a lot of others for a lot less. Hopefully Kimbrel can do a lot more than that.

Keith Foulke in 2003 struck out 26% of the hitters he faced, 23.7% in 2004. Better than Mariano Rivera during that time. Koji struck out 38% of the guys he faced in 2013 (to give you an idea how absurdly brilliant he was). Papelbon's seasons were generally in the high 20s with a couple higher than that. Foulke missed bats plenty. You are right - you don't need hulk smash power, but missing bats is fundamental. The thing about Foulke which was unappreciated is he pitched no fewer than 77 innings between 1999 and 2004. That is more work than Jonathan Papelbon or Craig Kimbrel have delivered in any of their big league seasons. Tito turned to Foulke in their darkest hour, yes - but few relievers of modern vintage were able to take the ball with that sort of frequency.

That the bell curve here spans 1 or 2 wins MAX says a lot about the value of closers generally ...

Or the Rangers signing Ian Desmond - and DOING THE VERY SAME THING What happened to Ramirez was a legitimate freaky outlier. Shaw will have a chance and clearly Sandoval looks more likely to get voted off the island than Ramirez.

His take home pay

The spring numbers don't bother me - I just don't know what he was supposed to work on. One hopes the strikeout-flyball approach he took last year is mothballed, because he has a track record of a very effective ground ball pitcher - I am fairly optimistic about him as a fringy #2, #3 sort. Rodriguez has #1 stuff - sometimes there looked to be issues turning over the lineup on that third look. He definitely had that "one bad inning" issue also. Those are not the sort of things he can work on in the minors - because his stuff is good enough to conquer that without worrying about feel or adjusting. Owens to me has kind of turned into an underrated prospect. He got swings and misses with big league bats - and that is much more to build on than most pitchers have. Now if I were dictator, I'd have him up here as a 100 IP kind of super-reliever where you can manage workload (twice a week, once through the lineup sort of thing), but more likely Pawtucket is the starting spot, and that's ok.

What was interesting was that Papelbon was not really a fastball pitcher as early as 2009. There were definite cracks in his control and (eye test here) his own approach to hitters. He switched from the splitter to his slider as his primary off speed pitch, even though he did not throw it as well. He seemed to relish a more hulk smash sort of approach to me. The more important thing though is whether Papelbon now is significantly better than a median closer - that is, is Papelbon spitting out twice the value (or more) than one of those names who flies by in the later rounds of a fantasy draft (say Cody Allen or Glen Perkins). The answer is pretty clearly no. That's not even really a knock on Papelbon so much as the closer position - there are really only a few who provide a significant leg up.

Dojji is half right. The Papelbon of 2006 to 2008 was as good a closer as ever. Clearly he morphed into a very average one after that - stopped throwing his splitter, too many fastballs (and his fastball was quite good but not amazing enough to not use other pitches)

It was useful for Murphy to get into a camp where he has at least a chance to make it (because he is left handed and there is not tons of evidence that Castillo can hit), and just play. Obviously if a team was going to give Murphy a guaranteed deal he would have taken it.

Koji was a machine that postseason - funny thing is that the most memorable high leverage at-bats involved Breslow and Tazawa. You just hope this team can achieve that sort of game shortening.

What kind of message does it say when a team trades for one with that hanging over him. Not exactly gunning for the "females who didn't date Derek Jeter" vote there. Between that and their ticketing hijinks, Yankees really doing their fans a solid.

What Foulke did was heroic - I have no idea how he got the save in that Game 6. Papelbon in 2007 had one moment for the ages in Game 7 of the ALCS, entering the 8th (when the game was still in doubt, Sox up 3-2) and slamming the door. Boston blew it open in the bottom of that inning. Koji was better in his appearances - but the Red Sox were never down to the felt in that playoff run, so I'd put it a teeny tiny half step down. Well, I'll add one missed one and drop the mic Pedro Martinez - Game 5, 1999 ALDS

No precedent, no charges filed. No smoking gun (like say, a security cam video). The fact is the only thing that they could prove was the gun stuff - and note the only thing Chapman is copping to. Manfred was in a tough spot - this was not a pending case, and the union (correctly) would fight tooth and nail over something large because of the precedent it would set. (essentially a giant suspension on what effectively becomes hearsay) 30 games is a good outcome here. Now the Reyes business - where there ARE criminal proceedings - will be much more educational. That could be much higher. Manfred was in a tough situation here.

Scouting and Analytics represent a stupid (and false dichotomy). You don't assemble a premium farm system using analytics - that's just finding great athletes and baseball skills and bringing in talent. (between the uselessness and unreliability of high school statistics, and the simple matter that you are only getting wood bat looks at a small number of American kids) Nobody has ever used just SPSS and spreadsheets to make all of their player decisions. The analytics complement the scouting (when done right of course). Spreadsheets don't see makeup or physical projection ... scouts don't always know which areas of emphasis really matter to producing good baseball players. The best example (from early on) was the idea of approach. Old timey baseball might have seen it as something coachable - but analytics demonstrated that it is really a "trait" which is very hard to improve. So that goes into what scouts have to think about. I hope these silly Henry comments was just somebody on the NESN side telling him he should probably shed some tears for ratings.

I hope so. Really the .291 OBP was the hard part - the walk rate plummeted by over 50%. Now it could be explained physically - pitchers had no incentive to nibble. But that tendency is the one which seems like it should turn around - Ramirez has been better than that. He clearly pressed a lot.

What is interesting is that his approach has always been really good until last year - it is hard to think that he has forgotten how to take at-bats.

Pablo has gotten by because he is a very gifted athlete that could transcend the conditioning (see Tony Gwynn, Dave Parker at various points, Roy Nelson in the Octagon) - there is a flashpoint now I think - where the gifts can't compensate for the lack of work.

Oh dear - numbering this: 1. This analysis totally whiffs on how trades work. Go back to 2006 and the Red Sox internally developed the stuff which got cashed into Josh Beckett, a 25 year old ace coming off of a rookie deal. The Red Sox farm system provided stuff to deal for Victor Martinez as a deadline bat, and the stuff to get Adrian Gonzalez - who was the premier catch of that offseason. Now, shoulder problems ended up turning him from the sort of player you write songs about into a good 1B. His tour here was a disappointment - and obviously he was dealt in the Dodgers pitchfork and torches trade. You have to consider the prospects used in trade as part of the farm bounty - because the front office certainly does. This team produced the greatest decade in its post-integration history, and it was done via farm and trades. Your analysis considers the former without the latter. 2. Where the team has made mistakes is almost entirely on the free agent front. That - from all evidence - looks a lot less like "overreliance on numbers" and much more like wantonly choosing the top name on the free agent heap. Pablo Sandoval was one of the two or three top free agents in the 2015 class. You could squint really hard and see a decent signing - good athlete, youngest of the premium FAs - but there was a lot of evidence against it, and signing him and Ramirez together smacked of "winning the press conference" more than any serious analysis. 3. It is hard to cite decline in 2008 - where we were 6 innings away from winning consecutive pennants. Also hard in 2009 where they just lost to an Anaheim team who also had a very successful decade. It is hard to cite in 2010 where they won 89 games despite having their two best position players injured for large chunks of the season. It is even hard to cite it in 2012 where a poor manager and crazy injury luck caused a spiral which they could not steer out of. 4. This team since this ownership took over managed to win 3 titles while successfully re-building the roster at least once ... this second rebuild has been trickier and less successful because of (I think) a lack of many of the stabilizing forces which helped the rebuild the first time around.

The horsepucky is strong here since the numbers were not in favor of the Sandoval signing.

He never had to evaluate players professionally

I think there is some - all of the above to a degree. But the CBA (justly) does I think mandate that these guys get time away, and that their offseason work is theirs. Otherwise you run into the NFL situation where Organized Team Activities are only statutorily optional but are essentially mandatory. And even if they did - the monitor has to go home. And it's not like they can cut a guy for what he does in the offseason (especially if it doesn't involve the sort of thing Aaron Hernandez got into).

One thing that is obvious is that fans are (somewhat) more savvy about defense than even in 2007. The measurement is better and while I don't think the average fan really understands UZR or DRS, it is clear that errors and fielding percentage are not nearly sufficient. It is always striking how a player's hitting colours the assessment of defense. Unless a guy is a known defensive substitute - poor hitting I think does impact perception of defense. Crisp was a good CF. Damon was below average although CF in Boston those years were tough jobs given they kinda sorta had to play LF too.

Horrible defense feels less horrible in your mind when there is a .321/.439/.619 as a chaser.

Here is the key to Hanley. I remember years ago I'd shake my head watching the dumpster fire that was Manny being Manny in LF and sigh, "Well, at least he can hit." Hanley was a disaster in LF, and more than that - between any effects to confidence and any shoulder issues - he stopped hitting, and stopped seeming to know how to construct an at-bat. I don't expect him to be a good 1B - but I do expect him to be good enough for it to be comfortable for him so he can hit again and be a positive force overall.