sk7326

Now, the Red Sox also had Swihart (switch-hitter but so far much stronger from the left side) and Bradley behind Holt. Would Tito have gone for the matchup when there were multiple "lefties" left afterward? At least in that particular situation. Joba's wOBA vs righties was .368 last year ... Detwiler's against lefties was .299. Given that it is game 1 of 162 (the same reason you could argue for Holt staying in against the lefty) might as well let Young take a righty on righty turn and then go to LF. As noted - it's not a big deal - to me it's more of a 60-40 than something scandalous. But it probably slightly reduced their chances of really adding to that lead.

Detwiler was the lefty in the game when the bases were loaded (pbp here: http://espn.go.com/mlb/playbyplay?gameId=360405105) Top 7 Chamberlain was in the bullpen - so a pinch hit might have brought him in earlier. And Holt has shown some evidence of a reverse platoon split - but the sample sizes are pretty small, so not a ton proven. For me, with a chance to make it a huge lead, Chris Young's ability to mash lefties, Joba's inability to get anybody out easily, and Young's much higher possibility of hitting it out of the park or somesuch - would have made me go to the pinch hitter there. After all, if LF is truly a job-share, then act like it. But if it was a mistake, it was a misdemeanor.

Well, that settles it!

1 baserunner final 3 innings, 15 strikeouts. If you get 15 Ks, defense hardly matters. That said, just moving up from Hanley/Panda to "adequate" on the left side really helps the defense ... should be "plus" at three spots a night minimum. Good approach today. Lot of good stuff here. Farrell made one non-move which was little baffling, but ultimately did not matter. (not going to Chris Young against the lefty with a chance to blow the game open)

Never lost it - just need to make sure his arm stays attached to his body

maybe he didn't know you could switch platoon guys DURING a game too

Hard part watching this at work on gamecast is not being able to tell if Joba still looks like a mass murderer

Imagine if there was an outfielder who had a knack for hitting lefties on our bench to handle a bases loaded spot ...

IIRC it is because they traded for a projected star 1B, and they had one of the league's ten best hitters moving to 3B. What they got wrong was Yook's body falling apart piece by piece.

funny how it went down the toilet since Duquette was batting eyes at Toronto for that president's job.

1. I think the $$/WAR number I see is from Fangraphs. It's a silly metric anyway, because every market is different - that said the Sox have a very high marginal value of victory - wins are a big boost financially for them, so they'd be on the high end of this in general. 2. The huge difference between bWAR and fWAR comes from the defense accounting - fWAR starts from FIP, bWAR from runs allowed. There are two competing assumptions at work here. First - bWAR is kind of starting with the pitcher getting a majority of the onus for runs allowed and works from there, fWAR starts from lower assignment of credit/blame. Second, fWAR assumes BABIP is entirely random - which is not true. Running the numbers today using 2015 qualified starters, there was a 0.43 correlation between BABIP and line drive rate. (in English, they rise and fall together, generally ... they are not independent, but they are not linearly related either) Last year Price had a 23% line drive rate, which put him in the bottom quartile and an outlier from his normal 20% or so rate (solidly above the median). So there is some cause for concern maybe - but right now, regression is the bet. 3. I wrote that entire #2 not realizing you (as I) misread the bbref entry. They gave him 2 lines (or 4 lines for the last 2 seasons) because he was dealt each of the last 2 seasons. His bWAR in 2015 was 6.0, and his bWAR in 2014 was 4.6 bWAR. Both are actually close to fWAR. 2013 his bWAR was 2.8. He also pitched about 40 innings less in 2013 than he did in 2015 (and 60 less than 2014!). 2014 and 2013 were two years where he had poor BABIP luck relative to other years in his career.

I think the plan is to get Castillo work. Key (and this is the human being part of managing) is whether they think Castillo benefits from just getting the job, or he might feel less pressure in a lower profile role. It might be the latter. That is the bet at least. If this will help him stop pressing, it might work. I respect Sandoval's track record vs Shaw - but Shaw has been a better player the last season. Again, Sandoval might still get work - the question becomes what does Farrell do to start the season. Sandoval and Ramirez were both awful last season, but clearly Hanley's way forward was much clearer. Now can Sandoval turn into the middle class Wade Boggs the Sox were projecting. (in terms of how he swung and such - obviously not the patience) Last year did not have the sense of a weird outlier with him - the ceiling was never that high.

I usually agree with your work - but I do not get this. I mean seriously, the 25 man roster did not change. How is the bench weakened if Sandoval is there as a backup 1B/3B. If Sandoval is a 2 WAR player clearly it improved. The 3B move is not that crazy - Shaw has been a better baseball player than Sandoval since 2015. It's not a spring based fluke. Now I agree with you, it's hard for Sandoval to be worse than he was last year, but so much of that was defensively - which is influenced by physical skills which may have diminished, who knows. I think you overread the Castillo thing. I read it as Farrell taking the question off the table in a way which suits him. Gives Castillo a chance to work at this without pressing. There is going to be huge improvement in LF this year - simply because Hanley was so bad there last season. This team will be better with Castillo doing what he is capable of - but he needs to get there, and perhaps he is the sort of guy who does not want to struggle publicly day after day. It's Farrell's job to know what will help each player in this regard.

Dombrowski can do whatever his bosses want him to do. That is the interesting thing. He has built farm systems, he has run a "now, now, now" shop. I made peace with the Cherington business. The major league ballclub is all that matters (the organization is super important, but only in service to the big league team) - and the major league club did not do its thing well enough. Now the process had spawned the best era in the post-integration part of Red Sox History. Changes needed to be made - I just think Henry went to the sledgehammer and by his press comments, seems entirely at leave with his senses. (his statements on analytics particularly bizarre since that is how he got rich) It's like he was a born-again of some flavour. The offseason has been strong - even with the fetishizing of the closer position. I am curious how this will work out - especially if John Henry caught the same bug Mike Ilitch did.

There is no real clogging of the roster. The fact is that Panda-Shaw-Castillo-Holt-Young were going to be the five guys occupying those positions leaving camp. (assuming 12 pitchers, which i always thought was going to be the case) Now the identities of the starters vs the bench guys changed - and credit to Farrell for actually making a merit based decision and not playing dollar signs. I think the LF deal is fairly open - Castillo has not been shut out of anything. Heck if Castillo plays well, Young might be deployed more as a platoon partner with Bradley. All of these decisions can be changed - and it's not like the roster would have been deployed differently. Shaw would have been backing up 1B/3B. Sandoval will be backing up ... now it is embarassing that he is being compensated so lavishly for this job, but that is not my problem.

The team's lack of organizational arms - at least high ceiling ones - is mostly a cause of them being too good to get into the draft position necessary to find them. Now that does not absolve the Red Sox entirely - the Cardinals, White Sox seem to have processes which add value there in a way the Sox have not hit on. But a very large part of it is the draft - which is not random. David Price (for instance) was the 2nd pick in the draft - Tampa's big accomplishment was being terrible enough to take him, and unmiserly enough to sign him.

I know Cubs are feeling the burn of that development philosophy

Well for two of them, that question is already answered. For Porcello - the Red Sox bought some insurance with Price - at least some insurance that if Porcello stinks, the team can work around it somewhat. Hanley - well, there are some answers there too, but I actually am not worried about him. I pegged 84 wins with some substantial upside - and talked about improvement from within being necessary. It is necessary, but it's also pretty projectable. 1. Bogaerts and Betts are excellent bets to improve. You have a reasonable possibility of two Top 20 players without having to do anything. 2. Bradley is almost certainly not the guy who went on that hot streak at the end of last season. But he showed some evidence of being a bonsai Mike Napoli - take a ton of pitches, ride a major BABIP-related roller coaster, strike out a ton while walking enough to keep the OBP from cratering. With his glove, that is a solid starter. 3. Swihart will be better. With the rock bottom replacement value for the position - Swihart does not have to do a ton to be a very positive force. He was obviously raw when the Sox discovered him, but he has learned stuff quickly. There is real "Port Authority Knockoff Quality Buster Posey" ability there, and we saw some glimpses last season. If he fails. then it's Vasquez whose WORST case scenario is living a nomadic life traveling from ML town to ML town wearing a "Will Catch For Food" sign on him and living off of continuous annual gigs as some pitcher's personal receiver. 4. Rick Porcello will almost certainly not be that terrible again. His post-DL appearances showed a perhaps better window. He will PROBABLY not justify his salary - but he should be a useful pitcher, capable of turning around 200 innings where he leaves the Sox with a decent chance to win. 5. The closer will be more stable - simply because Uehara is still a really good reliever and can backup Kimbrel if something bad happens.

I think 95 wins is very much within this team's potential outcomes. But for me the questions? 1. Rotation - it is better because of Price. While I think Porcello will go back to being a durable, useful pitcher, who could maybe justify his salary (through John Lackey-ish consistency) - it is clearly an open question. Buchholz gets hurt a lot. Joe Kelly is probably being pressed into a job he is not qualified for - he is the classic tweener, and nothing so far changes that. But I don't see the 95 Braves rotation here. 2. LF Defense - on paper, Holt and Young should do a good job. But we have seen over and over again that left field defense in Fenway has basically nothing to do with actually being a conventional good outfielder. It brought a really good outfielder to his knees (Crawford), while working nicely for, ummmm - less nimble sorts (uhh, Jim Rice). 3. Pitch Framing - Vasquez is a wizard at it. Swihart is not, or at least was not a year ago. Our pitchers could use all the help they can get. 4. Bullpen Management - While Dombrowski has improved the arm quality in the pen, Farrell has fewer options than a manager would normally have. Given Koji's age and his recent health, Farrell not only has a finite number of innings, he probably has a finite number of throwing sessions. If you're going to warm up Uehara, you're going to put him in. If you get him loose with the Red Sox up a run and they score 7 runs - you're going to burn Uehara on an 8 run lead. Will Farrell be able to count on Uehara for back to back days? Kimbrel is younger - but is also similarly inflexible. He has (like most modern closers) precious few 8th inning appearances. He's your 9th inning guy - but he's not going to be anything else. It's a little trickier for Farrell to negotiate - and it might make it harder for Farrell to manage the staff aggresively during some of the mid-rotation starts. 5. Farrell himself. John Farrell in 2013 was exactly what this team needed. The Red Sox in 2012 had this ungodly run of poor luck, injuries and whatnot. They also replaced a manager of tremendous integrity (and you can argue Tito's time ran its course - does not change that he was a decent person) with a guy who was kind of a dick and fancied himself a Bill Parcells-Phil Jackson voodoo wizard. While simply replacing Bobby V with a normal human being did not have the majority of impact for the 2013 title - it mattered. But I think there have been real issues with how Farrell has managed his coaches (last year the hitting emphases seemed all wrong for a large part of the season - sacrificing power for contact as if we were playing in Yellowstone National Park), and whether he is doing the best things by his young players. 6. Hanley. Can he get back to hitting again? Can he get back to patience, having a good approach and not giving away so many outs - which he did at a career worst level last year. I refuse to believe he lost it that quickly - and his fundamentals do not reflect a guy who has lost bat speed. I think the Red Sox had a very strong offseason and did a lot of the things they needed to do in terms of roster improvement. But a lot of their improvement has to come from within.

Benintendi has been out of the SEC for less than a year. I would not be stunned if he does have a chance to make a big league impact this season, but not betting anything at all. Moncada too - just because of the probability he will flat outgrow the infield. Castillo should be getting ABs - but I think the LF situation is a lot more fluid than 3B. Now one potential reading of this is that now Farrell can stop answering questions about Castillo and give him turns with lower pressure - and let the situation iron itself out. But me, I'd start him in AAA.

Really the key questions become: 1. Is their run scoring at least as good as last year? I say yes. Shaw has very little to do to clear Panda's production level. Hanley is a solid bet to provide better value than our 1Bs last year. LF was a bit of a train wreck last year, so again there is not much improvement necessary. 2. Is their run prevention better? Yes. There was improvement across all areas of run prevention. For me the over/under is at about 84 wins. If the summah is ruined, it will be towards the end of it.

an average starting OF who can play CF is probably worth $12M in 2016 dollars. The years are harder to swallow. Now Castillo was a bit of a reflection of management panic - something endemic of the post 2011 Sox. Think about it. Step 1: Let go of guy because you have a young replacement Step 2: Express confidence in new guy Step 3: Sign ambulatory guy who was an MVP candidate 8 years ago for competition in March Step 4: Give Step3 guy starting job based on march at-bats against future minor leaguer Step 5: Cut Step3 guy because ... of course Step 6: Sign Castillo because 300 ABs of new guy proved he stunk out loud Step 7: Promote budding superstar who is killing AAA levels Just a lot of reactionary moves without a real big picture in mind.

Castillo can be moved - although with the usual caveats (eating salary and whatnot). If there is a starter there - then his salary is somewhere between reasonable and low. The Red Sox won a bidding war of some kind to sign him, and he has not actually had that many at-bats to prove anything one way or the other. So there should be somebody who'd be willing to take him on if he were available etc etc etc.

If by Dombrowski, you mean Henry. After all, Henry's bizarre comments entering the season showed where this is all coming from.

Great deception and arm action and perfect location