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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    It was, although I think they might have been too dogmatic in their valuation - model results vs the market as is. I could have told you that he was a $25M pitcher, just because the comps were becoming obvious. (#1/#2 pitcher with exceptional durability) I am not sure their terms read the market correctly. Certainly it missed the market by a large enough margin that hometown discount was a non-issue.
  2. sk7326
    TV rights are holding the whole ship afloat
  3. sk7326
    Daniel Nava/Mike Carp seemed to work out
  4. sk7326
    - I don't know if Lovullo would want it - especially if there could be a league perception of knifing his best friend. (not sure if it would happen, but given what a solid candidate he is for any job, would make sense for him to be protective) - One of the wacky vestiges of the 75 man pitching staffs are decisions like this. Seriously. Look at the roster: C (2): Two of the three IF (6): Bogaerts, Ramirez, Pedroia, Sandoval, Shaw, Holt OF (4): Castillo, Bradley, Betts, Young DH (1): Ortiz 12 pitchers It seems goofy to ask Shaw and Holt to learn 2B, but your non-starters have to cover a lot of ground when you have so few roster slots. Now this is a strong argument for small pitching staffs, but that ship has sailed.
  5. sk7326
    Shields only virtue is that he never gets hurt. The market voted on him last year - fly ball pitcher ended up in a fly ball death zone. Now a Shields for Sandoval and prospect makes sense, but you have to use the Sox depth - someone like a Merrero level or something at best.
  6. sk7326
    Derek Lowe, Keith Foulke, Tom Gordon, Koji Uehara, Rick Aguilera, Jonathan Papelbon ... all closers who have hung up good season(s) ... closer has not been much of a problem for us mostly
  7. sk7326
    Yes he will. And so will a dozen others. A team that has a one run lead entering the 9th with nobody on is expected to bring that game home >80% of the time. (32 saves out of 40 chances for instance) A team that enters that inning-out situation with a 3 run lead is expected to bring it home almost 95% of the time. The closer is almost certainly not adding $15M of win probability to that situation.
  8. sk7326
    No, that doesn't matter either - just guys getting work in. What is that work? Are they really praciticing situational baseball? Altering approach and whatnot (for those situations). Or are they just trying to take good at-bats and see pitching. Honestly, 80% of the reason for the games is to generate gate revenue.
  9. sk7326
    Indeed - that was the real story of that WS. The Mets ran into a team which never struck out and just put balls in play and forced a shaky infield defense to make plays, and they whiffed at key times.
  10. sk7326
    They did - but it was augmented with the bullpen as you noted, but also a phenomenal defense which allowed the starters to play up. Their starters are not terrible, but yes not that much better than the Red Sox were wheeling out there, but they took advantage of their ballpark and their fielders.
  11. sk7326
    The injury might have led to the approach issues - as pitchers were less fearful of mistakes in the strike zone.
  12. sk7326
    I agree to a point here. I think what we've seen is that a bullpen with shifting jobs does not seem to work. Players do not seem to be comfortable with a true matchup-based approach (what a bullpen by committee is - not the hash Grady Little made of it). A guy to consistently pitch the inning does matter - players clearly like the roles. But I am not sure Kimbrel's performance, even at it's right tail, would actually move the standings needs that much relative to simply telling Carson Smith, this is your team and letting it fly. There is value in the late game consistency - but I have my doubts whether the 9th inning is specifically harder, enough to warrant a dedicated specialist.
  13. sk7326
    I forgot how few games 2013 was - he was a 5 win player in 86 games, which made him one of the league's best players when he could take the field. Hanley until last season has always been able to hit - and to recognize pitches and whatnot. Burden is on him on that end for sure. As always spring stats mean zero, and maybe less than that.
  14. sk7326
    Hanley Ramirez was a credible downballot MVP choice as recently as 2013. He wanted to play in Boston so badly he was willing to try a position he was not wild about - to try to increase his durability. Bat the way DD wants him to bat? Does Dombrowski not want walks and hard hits? That would be grounds to fire DD no? It is hard to say anything but Hanley is trying.
  15. sk7326
    Quality of the season? No. The value of his quality over say, a Cody Allen. Yes, a little.
  16. sk7326
    Oh I don't know - anytime you get to the rodeo, losing sucks. Once you see an 83-79 team win the World Series with Jeff Suppan as a playoff series MVP, the idea of a team being roadkill in baseball strikes me as crazy. Even the biggest underdog is 40-60 at worst.
  17. sk7326
    You pitch in a ton of big games, you're going to lose occasionally. Baseball is a funny game. If you remember, the ball Rivera threw to lose the 2001 Series was a perfect pitch. In 2011, you never know what would have happened if the Red Sox had stumbled into the tournament. Baseball is weird. I certainly did not predict the last 7 games of the 2004 World Series coming off of an 11 run loss. Papelbon was a good closer for us - and early on a great one. Now did he add a ton relative to a decent replacement? No - but that is because that job does not have that much separation leaguewide. The win expectancy for entering a game with the bases empty and a one-run lead is 80% or 84% (depends on whether you're at home or not). With a three run lead it's more like 95%. So the "average" level of win conversion is very very high.
  18. sk7326
    I think the big question for them is whether Lovullo would take the job permanently - he is ridiculously qualified. He might be sensitive to replacing his best friend under these circumstances. Jason Varitek has never filled out a lineup card at any level - the idea of him managing is cute but a generally poor idea. If you are going to go a route like that, Alex Cora would be a far far more reasonable guy to look at.
  19. sk7326
    Uehara has been unambiguously better than Papelbon over the last three years. even with 15 fewer IP over the comparable three year span.
  20. sk7326
    That's what Hazen, Farrell and Dombrowski get the big bucks for. There is a solid case for starting him in extended spring - if the Sox want to make it. You could also argue that he could use some more at-bats. I feel bad that injury problems put Vasquez a little behind in the competition but that happpens.
  21. sk7326
    Really the Sox have made a point to sign great athletes and put them in the most athletically demanding positions - at least as a starting point, and let internal competition sort the rest out. Making conclusive anythings about Swihart at the dish without considering context is a bit silly. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/blake-swihart-the-red-sox-mythical-third-prospect/
  22. sk7326
    I actually agree with you - but I don't think being a "good outfielder" in a standard way matters. Carl Crawford was an excellent LF and a disaster his one season in Fenway. I just think it's enough of an outlier that simply having any sort of new guy playing the position is the challenge. It says little about the principle of moving an infielder to LF to hide his glove.
  23. sk7326
    Not so much. The job is a job - pitchers do not like to be shuffled around innings. I understand the human beings at work here - it's like any other job. You want to know your station. But it's very much something you can figure out in house (at least enough to be okay at the position).
  24. sk7326
    The Red Sox mowed through the 2013 season with their THIRD choice for Closer. Three of the four semifinalists that year were using closers they did not start the season with. The Giants won the World Series in 2014 after demoting the guy who was their closer in 2012. The Royals won the World Series with their closer injured and unavaialble Mark Melancon, a pitcher with not especially good stuff who was driven to the airport from Boston became an accomplished closer in Pittsburgh Closers are made not born largely.
  25. sk7326
    I don't know - that put him on par with a #3 starter, which is pretty extraordinary in only 70+ innings. I do agree that a win probability added is a more interesting measure.
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