Forsythe, let me clarify: I do think that we have the players to MAKE the playoffs. What I was referring to is being a factor once we get in. A team can bash its way into the postseason, but you must have good to excellent pitching to hope to contend for a ring. Lets look at who we have:
Beckett/Lester: serviceable #2-3 SPs, but certainly not aces
Buchholtz: one great year, thats it. An X factor.
Lackey: the worst SP in baseball and we are stuck with him
Wakefield: he will be back if Epstein remains. Part of "the good 'ol boy network"
Bard will likely become our closer when Papelbon leaves, and its likely, IMO, that he will take the best deal which probably won't be offered by us.
Aceves: could start. Thats really where he belongs, but his results as a SP have not been nearly as good as as a reliever
Albers: are you kidding me? Reverted to his career norms late in the year
Wheeler: likely gone at $3M/y
Jenks: yup, he's ours. Signed for another year.
Morales: inconsistent
Atchison: up and down from Pawtucket. Good mop up guy, but not good for much else
DiceK: gone until August at least. Unlikely to pitch again for the team, fortunately
Bowden, Tazawa, Doubront etc: have proven nothing so far.
I think thats a fair assessment. Remember: we finish NINTH in the AL in overall ERA. While its possible that some guys could have career years, I am not counting on it.
As far as the offense goes, we will score a lot of runs, even with Crawford performing poorly, and even with Gonzalez fattening up his statistics against lower tier clubs (except the Rangers) and choking against the Rays and Yankees and Tigers. As I said, we can bash our way into the playoffs, perhaps, but that will be worth nothing if our pitching staff cannot stop the other guys from scoring. That WILL NOT HAPPEN with the current pitching staff. Period.