rjortiz

How? How many teams are legitimate fits for Drew?

Most people are saying he's an above-average SS, which I think is an accurate description. The problem is there aren't a lot of teams that are going to want to surrender a 1st round pick for a player like Drew. It doesn't help that most teams are set at SS. It also doesn't help that the teams that have a need at SS are awful (Mets) and Drew wouldn't impact their chances. Also, teams aren't going to forget that Drew was awful in 2012 and has an injury history. He's also in his decline years. I think he's going to have agree to play 2B to get the best offer, unless he agrees to sign for 2/20 to sign with the Mets.

I saw it mentioned on fangraphs when they discussed them signing Ubaldo Jimenez that they have two exempt first round picks.

That pick is exempt because it's compensation for failing to sign their 2013 first round pick.

I don't think that Drew's market will collapse to the point where the Red Sox would be the only team involved. What kind of deal does everyone have in mind? 1/10? I have to believe that there would be other teams that would be interested at that price. I think he'll sign for 2/24 or 3/30 to play 2B for Toronto.

Feb 15th.

I don't think it's a bad contract. Baseball is overflowing with money, and Kershaw is a 6 WAR pitcher. He's also only 25, so they aren't paying for any decline years. He would have commanded this much in free agency. Personally, I think opts out in five, and lands another huge deal.

Yankees are a lot further than one, or even two players from winning at all. I don't think Tanaka even makes them second best in the East.

Saul would have got the suspension dropped.

I agree. New York will buy him out and he'll never play again.

If he's open to playing 2B, I could see Toronto getting involved.

That's why I hate the $$$$$$$$$uxxxxx. They just throw money at their problems. Think the Astros could have filled all those holes like the $ux did? That's the reason the $ux won the World Series. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

They have five good players on that team. Six if you count Tanaka.

A lot would have to break their way to be a contender. Texas is much better right now.

You have to be a resident for five years before you can apply for citizenship. He'll probably establish residency when he signs with a team. I doubt there will be any problems considering who he is, and what industry he is in.

That's a terrible deal for the Blue Jays.

You didn't read what I wrote. I said that this trade would still be a win for the Yankees. I just don't believe it's completely lopsided. Again, you clearly didn't read what I wrote. I never said that Hamilton was a poor fielder. I never said this either, although I could see how you could be confused. I said if the Reds thought that Hamilton was not going to a great CF, and have a sub .300 OBP, (which is entirely possible, because he only had a .308 OBP in AAA in 2013, and is projected to have a .278 OBP by fangraphs) then Brett Gardner would be a big upgrade over Hamilton. A below .300 OBP speedster with just above average skills in CF isn't a valuable player. The sub .300 OBP was a projection, not something he did in the past. I also mentioned that the Reds could play both of them at the same time. Gardner in LF, Hamilton in CF. That's probably the most optimial situation. Gardner's a 3-4 WAR player in LF, Bailey's a 3/4 WAR at SP. Pretty much a wash in 2014 value. That being said, I think the Reds are going to struggle this year, so they would be better off trading Bailey for players they control for multiple years. Bailey's three year WAR totals - 1.1, 2.5, 3.7 Bailey's three year FIP totals - 4.06, 3.97, 3.31 He was 4/5 type in 2011, a 3/4 type in 2012, and knocked at #1 starter status in 2013. His K/9 totals spiked, he got more GB's, and allowed fewer HR's. His breakout year was in 2013. No hitters are nice accomplishments, but I don't put too much value in them. Henderson Alvarez has one. He finished behind Bronson Arroyo and Mike Leake in HR/9 last year. They are even more HR prone than Bailey is, so it isn't surprising to see him finish behind them. Finishing behind them also doesn't take away his career 1.01 HR/9 mark. He made some strides last year, but since we are talking about a hypothetical trade to the Yankees those numbers are a good bet to increase. Why would Gardner take a 1/14 offer when the bidding is probably going to start around 4/48? Even if he accepts it, they would be paying a very reasonable price on a short-term deal to a good player. I don't understand why Arroyo is used as an example. Arroyo is older, had a below average 2013, and hasn't been good since 2008. There was no way a team would outbid 1/14 for Arroyo plus surrender a draft pick. Again, I'm not arguing that Gardner would be a guy they should target for Bailey. My argument was that this trade wouldn't make the Yankees that much better in 2014. Personally, I think they would be better off flipping Bailey at the deadline when they are in a distant 3rd behind the Cardinals and Pirates. Nope. The only suggestion I made was that I wouldn't make the deal on either side. For the Yankees, trading Gardner forces Soriano into everyday LF, and Vernon Wells as the everyday DH. That would erase any upgrade that Bailey would provide to the rotation. For the Reds, trading Bailey for a player who is going to be a free agent isn't the best long term plan for them. As for throwing in Phillips, that would be a nice gift from the Reds. 4/50 isn't a big overpay with baseball salaries booming, and he's still a useful player who would be an upgrade over the garbage they currently have at 2B.

They aren't aces, but they can definitely help a team like the Blue Jays.

That's a pretty good pitcher.

Are you saying that they are going to be bad enough so Tanaka won't make any impact on their chances? I think you are overstating how bad the Yankees are. Adding Tanaka upgrades their rotation, which will help them grab a playoff spot. He could be 2-4 wins better than Pineda/Phelps. That's definitely going to increase their odds of playing in October.

Ronaldo's the huge favorite, so I'm going to guess him.

Tanaka puts them in the Wild Card mix in my opinion. Maybe an outside chance at the division if things break right.

I think Gardner is a 3-4 WAR player in LF next year. Bailey probably provides around that total at SP. I think the Yankees would win the trade, because they land a starter with upside for a player with only one year of control left, but I don't think it would make them that much better in 2014. That's why I wouldn't call it completely lopsided. The Reds would definitely be selling low though.

Phillips only has 4/50 left on his contract. It's not that awful. If the Reds could trade Bailey for Bautista they would have already done it. That would be a huge win for the Reds.

I'd make the offer, because I think it is unlikely that Gardner would accept it. If Michael Bourn can get 4/48 in 2012, Brett Gardner should be able to exceed that. If he does accept, they can always play him in LF in 2015. Bruce and Hamilton can play RF/CF. There isn't a downside to making the offer.