DocHolliday

Would probably cost less than similar pitchers, certainly less than what it would cost to get a Felix Hernandez type. Problem would be finding a match - the Sox seem to be very reluctant (IMO, rightfully so) to part with higher end prospects. Another issue - how would the rotation fare in Fenway Park with 3 lefties who aren't exactly Cliff Lee level performers (Lester & Doubront as the other 2)?

Not only is their money not endless, Hamilton will cost a draft pick as well- a fact that seems to be ignored in many circles. Yes, the Rangers won't receive the 1st round pick since its protected, but its pretty easy to see that the Sox, along with many teams, are far more successful in the long run with player development and draft picks than free agency. The new CBA has made draft picks more valuable than they have ever been. I'm sure the Sox recognize this and will be hesitant to sign Hamilton even if given the option of limiting years.

Step in the right direction with the Napoli signing. Icing on the cake - no draft pick given up.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/rays-close-to-signing-james-loney.html No big surprise here, but another 1B option appears to be off the FA market. That being said, wasn't very impressed with Loney in his brief time in Boston. Definitely hoping they sign Napoli to a 3 year $36 M range deal. Don't have to give up a draft pick and 1B vacancy is filled. Also gain a spot catcher, fill in DH, and RH power perfectly fit for Fenway.

I would have been on board if they would have dealt Olt for Ellsbury, but I doubt they would deal Olt, even for a better known commodity like Granderson. They are really high on him, and obviously, Profar is not going to be dealt. Andrus, to me, seems like the logical fit. They've been on record several times suggesting they won't deal Andrus, but I think they would deal him in the right deal for an elite OF, and I feel Granderson would fall into that category for them because of his ability to play CF. Andrus is a Boras client, and is set to be a FA after the 2014 season. He's certainly not going to be moved off of SS at this point in his career. There has been rumors that the Rangers would try putting Kinsler in the OF, but I don't see that as a fit for next season. With Cruz signed and Murphy still on the team, Kinsler would be forced into CF and I personally think that's not what the organization wants to do. Even though Rangers Ballpark is a home run friendly ballpark, it is similar to Yankee Stadium with its expansive CF. Beltre is locked into 3B for the next couple of seasons. The Rangers still have Moreland for the moment as the primary 1B, with Olt getting mixed in with playing time. And, they have Michael Young signed through 2014, who will almost certainly be the primary DH and super utility player. In other words, they have too many IF and not enough OF - particularly up the middle. My guess is they will look to trade for a CF to replace Hamilton, and Andrus, despite their public denial, represents the most logical chip they have to obtain OF help. Obviously, if they dealt Andrus, Profar becomes the starting SS, solving their dilemma there. And I feel that they will ultimately look to deal Moreland for rotation or bullpen help and let Olt take a more full time role at 1B.

If Granderson is really on the block, then the Rangers would certainly be a possible fit. With their need in CF and plethora of prospects and surplus in certain positions (SS and pitching to name a few), I could see a fit there.

I wouldn't go so far to say that I'd like to see them suffer through things like generations of Sox fans did and generations of Cubs fans still are. After all, their team is still one of the few that have yet to win a world series. But for the vast majority of Ranger fans, a year round commitment to following baseball was unheard of until a couple of years ago (and arguably, was helped by the Cowboys prolonged demise). It will be interesting to see how much attention and commitment will remain if the post Hamilton/Wilson teams don't share the same type of success. That being said, I still don't feel comfortable committing to Hamilton. He certainly will be tagged as a scapegoat by media and fans alike in Boston if he ends a season like he did this year and the Sox aren't the last team standing. We all certainly remember how he started the 2012 season. By the end of May, many critics were ready to anoint him the MVP of the AL. Sadly, if you look at his track record, he's consistently inconsistent (only his high points drastically overshadow his low points and paint extraordinary expectations for his future performance). Perhaps a contributor to this notion could be his splits against the lower tier of pitching and the upper tier of pitching. I believe I saw on Clubhouse Confidential (a baseball analytics show that airs on MLB Network) last week that Hamilton had the highest difference in stats when he faced the lower tier "dumpster diving" level of pitchers compared to when he faced the upper tier (Verlander, Hernandez "aces" and most team's number 1's and 2's). Supposedly, the sample was over a 3 year time period, which seems to be enough PA to suggest some sort of reliable conclusion.

I think its highly doubtful that Hamilton will return with the Rangers. By all accounts, he was not the most respected player in the clubhouse and had his share of inconsistency on the field, as documented by many of the reports that came out the days after their season ended. But streaky is certainly who he is - the downward spiral he had at the end of 2012 was the polar opposite he had from about June 1 of 2010 to the end of the season. I remember going to a game that year in June and seeing his stat line at around a .240 average and .320 OBP. He finished the year batting .359 with a .411 OBP. He's always been streaky - for good or bad. When things went badly for him this year, the Ranger fans really turned on him, even more so than they did to CJ Wilson at the end of last season. In a nutshell, Hamilton is a unanimous MVP when he is at his best, and a AAAA level player when he's at his worst. For me, that's too much variability to succeed in a baseball town like Boston, which is similarly the baseball mecca when things are going well, and what we witnessed the last calendar year when things aren't going well. Even with the protected 1st round pick, I'd be hesitant to pursue Hamilton, even if its for 3-4 years.

True - they almost certainly have to bring someone else in (if they keep Lester), whether its for a 1 year or multiple years. But I think it makes a lot more sense for the FA addition to be on a 1 year basis - even if its an overpay AAV. I'm not going to suggest that any of us will be giving the Sox a lot of slack if the option they brought in turned out to be a 2011 Lackey or a 2005 Wade Miller or Matt Clement. But if it did turn out that way, they could cut ties at the end of the season, as opposed to having to bring them back for another 2 or 3 seasons, and that would probably save us (and probably them) a lot of agony. They've made the mistake with FA pitchers on multi year contracts so many times, even when they had competitive teams and the mistakes were less significant. If they went out and signed another dud for multiple years, many of us would be giving them a lot more hell than we would if they made the same mistake on a 1 year deal.

Sad for Ranaudo. With that level of talent, he'd sure look good as one of the depth options for the 4-5 rotation slots right now. Problem is he can't stay healthy, nor consistent when he is deemed healthy enough to pitch. At this point, I really can't see his ceiling being any more than a 5th starter or middle relief option. Might be the best way to keep him healthy to limit the innings. Still young though, but his opportunity to be considered as a true future rotation option is beginning to dwindle.

Even with his talent, I'd only want to sign a guy like Webb if he's part of the "deep depth" that LL and BC keep referring to (ie, the depth options for the depth pitchers). Webb hasn't pitched in the majors since 2009, when he was 30 years old (he would be 34 in May of 2013). He had TJ surgery in 2010 and then was signed by the Rangers as a "depth" option for 2011, only to not sniff the majors at all. As we've seen over the past couple of seasons, this team doesn't currently have the talent nor the health to afford the "dumpster diving" options they've looked to in the past for slots 4-5, let alone the 6-7 depth options that always find their way into the 1-5 slots at some point. Webb is certainly one name among many, and represents a reasonable gamble, but only for an 8-10 option going into ST. He would have to prove he was healthy AND capable of getting hitters out to be considered for a spot starter/long to middle relief bullpen type of role. In Webb's case, his injury history, age, and time away from the game, he can't be relied on for 100+ innings demanded from the typical starter.

My only issue with the proposed deal is the future of the pitching staff, with or without Lester. To this point, the only pitcher on the Sox roster who has shown any capability of filling the role of ace at ANY point in their career is Lester. Granted, the last resemblance of that type of dominance came in the latter part of 2010, better than 2 years in the past. Maybe some of the drop off can be attributed to losing Farrell as pitching coach. But I think we can all agree to some extent that Lester has lost some of the edge he had in 2010 - whether its due to health, approach, hitter adjustments, or poor coaching, its clear Lester has lost the edge he had from 2 seasons ago. So its not a given that even if Lester stays that he will return to be a semblance of his old self. Say he does get traded for Myers or another highly regarded positional prospect - who do the Sox have in the current staff or in the upper levels of the farm system that could step in and replace Lester's assumed role of ace (whether we agree that he truely is that or not)? Buchholz? Doubront? De La Rosa? There are plenty of question marks and varying levels of doubt with all of these and any other current candidates that could be thrown out there. I'd say its safe to say that a trade of Lester for a positional prospect could be an unofficial punt on 2013. Assuming the prospect wasn't subsequently shipped out as part of a trade for a pitcher of Verlander or Felix Hernandez caliber, many chips would have to fall in the Sox favor to seriously contend in 2013 without having a ace like pitcher at the top (and reliable depth starters in slots 2 - 6 or 7).

Certainly the core group of fans will stick with the team through the good and bad times. To use the majority of posters on this site as an example, we continue to have hope that the team will rebound and return to being a competitive team again. The mere fact that we are all still rooting for them after what we've had to witness the past 3 years, culminating with the calendar year of September 2011-2012, shows that the core fans will stick with the team through anything. Personally, it makes me feel even more proud of myself, knowing that I was able to stand by the team through the worst of times and it will make me be even more proud when they do get back to being competitive year in and year out. That being said, I feel many of us are growing restless with the lack of progress that's been made to improve the team from our vantage point. It goes without saying that the off the field antics had to be put to rest, which I think most of us would agree that they have. But this organization needs to act on their words of promises of improving the team for 2013 and beyond in some timely fashion. Hopefully next week we will begin to see some movement in the right direction.

Interesting to see the Braves make the Upton move. Obviously they needed a CF, but after reading the Fangraphs article about team local TV contracts, the Braves were depicted as one of the teams with the least friendly local TV deals. I figured they might be a bit priced out compared to the other teams, even with the boost in national TV revenue. Nonetheless, glad to see Upton out of the AL east. Despite not ever becoming the player with all of the promise he had as a rookie, he always seemed to have his good games against the Sox- particularly in the 2008 ALCS.

Hi again everyone, Took a bit of a hiatus from the forum and baseball in general the last couple of months. Got married and took a couple of vacations. The time was obviously very rewarding for me for many reasons. But it also helped me clear my head by taking a break from the raucous the Sox seem to have become in recent times. Glad to see Farrell was brought in and see promise in the organization moving forward. Hopefully the minor moves up to this point will be followed by calculated, opportunistic decisions that will help the team be competitive in 2013 and well into the future. Glad to be back and discuss baseball with everyone. Hope all is well!

This is an intriguing alternative to signing a FA like Napoli who could platoon at 1B and C. Obviously we know that Victor can succeed in Boston- what we don't know is how healthy he will be. During his time here, he had some injury issues then. If he comes back, he will presumably see much more time at 1b. I believe I remember when he left that he didn't want to become a full time 1B / DH and catch part time. Maybe after his injury this year he just wants to go somewhere and play a less demanding position. He seemed to really enjoy his time here and would be able to play a leadership role as well. If its a salary dump, presumably the prospect cost would not be as high as other alternatives like Smoak, Olt, or Moore. Worth looking into.

What advantage did the Sox have over other teams the past few seasons when they had zero financial flexibility due to LT commitments to acquired "superstars"? Superstars don't necessarily have to be paid like superstars - particularly when they are already under team control. Giving away affordable talent that has the potential to become elite for expensive "elite" talent is part of what made the Red Sox the mess they are now. Certainly, I will be disappointed if the Sox field a team next season similar to the team that ended 2012 for the same reasons you described. My opinion differs in that I feel there are better ways to field a competive team for both 2013 and beyond than by acquiring players at positions that the organization seems to have the LT answer for in house. In the case of Tulo, the only way I'd make the deal is if the Rockies will take a lower caliber prospect or agree to pay a significant portion of Tulo's remaining contract, neither of which I believe they would do. But honestly, even acquiring Tulo in and of itself won't make this team significantly better than they presently are because it does nothing to address their biggest need - elite pitching.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. There's no doubt that Tulo is a great SS right now. But I wouldn't want to commit to a player who is under contract for the next 8 seasons, no matter who the player is. Especially when you would have to give up some highly touted prospects and pick up $140+ M to boot. Boegarts isn't a complete guarantee, but he's certainly talented enough to keep around and close enough to the ML that he could be a significant contributor in the near future. It isn't completely out of the realm of possibility that Boegarts could be contributing at a similar level to Tulo's current level by 2015-2016. At that point, Tulo will be earning $20 M and be signed through 2021. Boegarts would be making league minimum and will probably be signed through Arb and his first few eligible FA years, at a fraction of the monetary cost of Tulo. To me, hanging onto more of our higher end prospects and resisting the temptation to acquire LT commitments, no matter how good they may be right now, will allow the team the flexibility to fill gaps with shorter term, less risky FA acquisitions.

Reposting from yesterday before the server crash: I'd be ok with signing Otani if there is no posting fee. For me, this similar to signing international free agents from the Latin American countries when they are at a young age. Although the posting fee paid for Matsuzaka did not affect the luxury tax value the Sox were assigned, it still has to be included when evaluating whether his contract was a good or bad decision. For all other intents and purposes, Matsuzaka was acquired for $103 M with the posting fee and contract, or an average of around $18 M per season over 6 seasons. If Otani can be signed for somewhere around a 4 year, $15- $20 M contract- or $4 a $5 AAV per season, similar to Jose Iglesias as a 19 y/o amateur FA, I would say that's a risk worth taking.

Only problem I have with this is dealing Boegarts for Tulo. Tulo is signed through 2021, or his age 36 season, at an AAV of around $20 M. That's just too much $ and years to take on, particularly for a player who has been spent significant time on the DL for 2 of the last 5 seasons. He certainly has a good mental makeup, but he seems like too big of a risk to take on unless Colorado was willing to take on a large percentage of his salary. I'd much rather keep the SS prospects out of a trade for a SS and try to use them, or other tradeable pieces to fill an organizational wide vacancy at 1B and anywhere on the pitching staff. Before the server backup that deleted some of my posts from yesterday, I mentioned the possibility of an Ellsbury for Mike Olt trade with the Rangers. In short, the Rangers have too many players with guaranteed contracts who are going to be back next season - without enough positions on the field for all of them and the prospects. The way their core and payroll is shaping up, they are looking to win now and most likely feel their window to win hasn't closed. Ellsbury would fill the some of the void for them in CF better than just about any other OF they can acquire through a trade or FA. They won't give up Profar in any deal. Mike Olt is their next best positional prospect, but he may be closer to contributing on the ML level than Profar since he had several years of development at UConn. This deal makes sense for both sides and insures the Red Sox would get more for losing Ellsbury than they would under the new CBA if Ellsbury leaves after this season. Of course, this move would largely depend on Ellsbury and the Rangers agreeing to an extension beyond next season - similar to the Adrian Gonzalez deal.

Not sure if this issue is related to the server being down last night, but all of my posts from yesterday are no longer showing up in the threads.

For this season atleast, I think Pedro helps the Sox most by acting as a minor league pitching instructor or coach. He'd be perfect working with our younger pitchers on their stuff and mental approach, as you've mentioned. As most of us tend to agree, the next pitching coach should be the sole decision of the next manager. They have to be able to work together in harmony for the Sox to have any hope of improving the under performing pitchers and helping the younger pitchers emerge.

Stephen Drew is with Oakland now. If it wasn't for Crisp and the other late inning heroics last night, Drew would be the goat of that series for being thrown out at 3rd with no outs in the 6th. As far as the deal with Texas, it would make no sense for the Red Sox to trade Ellsbury for Andrus simply because they have such depth at SS in the org. If they have to, they can let Iglesias play SS next year while Boegarts progresses in his development. The only guy I'd want coming to Boston in a deal for Ellsbury is Mike Olt (they won't trade Profar). Mike Olt would fill the 1B vacancy and has a lot of upside to be a big time player. Only way Ellsbury gets dealt to Texas IMO is if he will agree to a LT extension with the Rangers. The Rangers wouldn't just give up a prime player like Andrus or an up and comer like Olt for 1 guaranteed year of Ellsbury.

I sure hope LL is enjoying the food and wine over there in Europe, but that has to be a pretty ill timed vacation. With the way this team played this season and the perception of most fans that this organization has a lot to prove, it would seem logical to most that the trip might have been able to be put on hold. How many other team presidents are out vacationing right now? The Rangers just had a collapse to end their season along the lines of the Sox last year, and Nolan Ryan sure isn't exploring the Irish countryside right now. There's plenty of other times in the offseason where a vacation would be less noticed. Unless JH told LL to get away so he would stay out of the managerial interviewing and selection process, this doesn't look well on the organization.

Like I said, if they are able to get Smoak for a reasonable cost, then I wouldn't blink at making that deal happen. Smoak is still young and hasn't had a whole lot of playing time for his age. He was blocked by Mitch Moreland and Chris Davis while he was in Texas. He never got the chance to play 1B much until this season. Last year, he split time with Mike Carp and has really only played full time 1B this season. He's under control until 2017 and won't hit arbitration eligibility until 2014. Looks like the perfect cost controlled 1B until he hits FA if he is able to fulfill his potential. And, I agree he would cost less than Ike Davis in both $, prospects, and a draft pick compared to signing a guy like Napoli - who I also view as a viable option if a value adding trade can't be made.