DocHolliday

I'd say that many of us may not have coveted Bauer specifically, but the type of player Bauer represents. If they were going to be able to get any type of impact pitcher in this offseason via trade, it was going to have to be a close to ML ready prospect with a high ceiling. The player the Guardians gave up is essentially in the same quality and future payroll obligation as the Sox biggest trade piece in Ellsbury. When you also consider the package that was given up to acquire Bauer, it makes the lack of Sox involvement (at least on the pirifiral) an issue. With the way this organization has handled things in recent years, they have ALOT to prove to win the majority of the fans trust back. Seeing a deal like this that makes sense in so many ways go down without any involvement on their part, certainly doesn't help win that trust.

Possibly, but with Farrell on board, I think they will be hesitant to trade Doubront. Farrell was on the record in his last year as pitching coach praising Doubront and his potential. In much the same way as he was with Lester during the trade talks for Johan Santana, he may play a big role in the FO decisions regarding players leaving in any deal.

Not sure if they would trade Martin Perez, who is by far their best pitching prospect anywhere near major league ready. Holland is signed to a team friendly deal through 2016, with an option for 2017. They're pretty high on Harrison and are trying to extend him through his Arb years. All 3 of these guys are LH, which would make 3 LH in the rotation if one of them joined Lester and Doubront - that's a risky proposition at Fenway Park. Not sure which of these guys I'd like to acquire the most, but right now I'm leaning towards Perez.

Lots of reports coming out of AZ saying that Justin Upton is no longer available for trade. That means Texas is almost forced to resign Hamilton or trade for an impact CF like Granderson or Ellsbury. Makes no sense to get into a bidding war with the Rangers or Mariners over Hamilton. Stand firm on 3 years and focus on improving the pitching in the meantime.

Looks like you can add Trevor Bauer to that list. So much for the "deep depth" LL famously coined. I can look at that list and see atleast 3 names that would have been a good fit for the Sox rotation next season at affordable $. Even if the interest in Hamilton is real, other teams appear to be picking up the legitimate depth options the Sox stressed were desperately needed to help the rotation going into next season. Yes, there are still names out there that can help. But this organization can't seriously be banking their hopes next year on getting bounce back/improvement years from ALL of their current 4 rotation starters can they?

Well it looks like Trevor Bauer is off the board now, as he's being reported as the pitcher going to the Guardians in the Choo deal with the Reds. A 3 team trade made it happen, but this is the type of deal the Red Sox could have made to address some of the pitching issues. I've tried to maintain patience with the FO to this point but it is beginning to wear thin. The whole thing with Napoli is becoming a joke. His signing was first reported 8 days ago and he has yet to be announced. Now we are hearing reports of a move made by the Guardians for Bauer that the Red Sox could have easily made with Ellsbury, who is all but gone after next season (as Choo was with the Guardians). They sure aren't going to win the fans faith back if they stay on a path of no action and no communication.

Even if the Sox FO believed that these projections were either conservative or accurate, why wouldn't they see this as an opportunity in a year when the division was as wide open as its been in years and sign some FA pitchers to short term, mid level AAV to add depth? The Rays just dealt their 2nd starter and, for the time being, have a questionable offense and a back end of the bullpen coming off a spectacular season. The Orioles had a season of the ages for good fortune and unexpected performance. The Jays just moved all their chips to the middle of the table banking on some big ? marks in the moves they made. And the Yankees have an aging and expensive roster, which, coupled with their determination to get below the luxury tax threshold, seems to be hindering their ability to supplement it for next year. Maybe they are just waiting out the market until the top FA SP come off the board and will pick up the leftovers on team friendly deals (which wouldn't be a bad strategy if the caliber of pitchers leftover is reliable and doesn't cost them a draft pick). But I'm afraid if they keep waiting, they will be left sacrificing on one of those fronts (more likely, the reliability front) and be forced into the same dumpster diving fixes that haven't panned out for them in the past (penny, Smoltz, cook, etc.) They still have the financial flexibility to sign SP at the middle range of the $ in hopes of adding quality to the back end of the rotation without forcing them into a LT predicament. In addition, they have depth in other areas outside of the rotation that other teams would be willing to trade them the SP depth they need. Hopefully they recognize this and are weighing options to figure out what is in the best interest of the team- while recognizing that they aren't the only team looking for depth and each passing day without movement could take more viable options off the board.

As much as I take note of these types of predictions, I don't think Bill James - or anyone for that matter - could have predicted absolutely random stats that had an impact on final outcome, like the 29-9 Orioles record in 1 run games. Even though there has been publicized feelings about the lack of James being involved with recent personnel decisions, I think these stats, particularly the pitching stats, should be taken with a big grain of salt. The Sox pitching has been an issue for several seasons now, so it makes sense that such stats related to the same pitchers who have had issues in the last few seasons would suddenly put up a season of significant improvement.

I'd say the Doubront and Lackey IP projections are atleast 20 IP over what would be expected.

I like the promise, but I'm waiting to see more when he returns to health. That being said, can't understand why some on this board are discrediting Bradley. He did about as much as anyone could've expected of him in his first year of pro ball, even making the adjustment at AA. And, any reputable source that follows the minor leagues projects him as an above average regular in the ML.

This is what I would hope would happen if they signed Hamilton. I just have my doubts about his ability to perform to the expectations we all would have for him. And even if he did, if they don't address the SP issues, they would still struggle and we would all be saying things like "they should have spent more $ on a pitcher like McCarthy or Jackson instead of dumping it all on OF and 1B." By default though, Hamilton signing here would come after the SP was addressed. Hamilton would only sign here if they traded Ellsbury. And the only scenario I see them trading Elllsbury is to address the SP.

They're certainly the favorites right now, but they will miss Shields production and innings. They will need Hellickson and Moore to step up and help fill that void. The key for them has been their ability to compliment the SP with a lights out bullpen built from scratch every year. I'm not convinced Rodney can have the same kind of year he had last season. If he's the same guy, then they certainly will be tough to beat.

Not sure if this is true with Dempster, but I know Lohse declined the qualifying offer and would cost us a draft pick. Even more reason for the FO to stay away.

I agree that Hamilton will likely end up back in TX, especially with the way the market has developed to this point. The only other possible trade I could see the Rangers making to address CF would be an Andrus for Granderson swap. Given the Yankees issues on the left side of the infield and their reluctance to resign both Cano and Granderson after this season, this would make sense for them (move Gardner to CF and put Jeter in RF or 3B, sign someone like Ichiro to play LF). For the Rangers, it addresses their CF need and allows them to move Profar to SS and let Olt/Moreland split time between 1B and DH (with Olt also giving Beltre occasional days off at 3rd base). Still, there are a lot of ?'s with this type of move and I think it's unlikely they go this route.

Its certainly arbitrary to debate what "star" power is. But if you're going to throw names like Bogaerts, Barnes, and Webster out there as potential "stars", Bradley's name certainly has to be included at this point. At this point, I'd definitely put Bradley's potential higher than Webster. Certainly not the same potential as Bogaerts, but nonetheless, its pretty much unanimous among the team and independent minor league talent evaluators that Bradley has a high ceiling.

If BJ Upton ever had a breakout year like Ells did in 2011, I'm sure they would have traded him then too. With their small market model, they can't afford to take on any additional risk and are forced to avoid the costly FA and arbitration eligible players outside of 1 or 2 core players. Still, in agreement that the Sox should have traded Ells last offseason - knowing he wasn't going to be a part of the LT plans. Sure, there would have been some backlash among the fans and media initially, but did they seriously expect that Ellsbury's value could have gotten higher than it was at the end of last season? Now, we have to hope that they can salvage something for Ellsbury - whether its part of a trade this offseason or sometime during 2013 that brings back a future rotation mainstay or a compensation draft pick in 2014 for losing him to FA.

Still holding out hope that they make something happen now that the top SP is off the board and a highly regarded SP on the trade block was moved. Would be pleased if they sign a guy like Edwin Jackson to a 2 or 3 year contract at reasonable $ and avoid giving up a draft pick.

Bradley not considered star talent?

Lots of dominoes falling over the weekend with the Grienke signing and the Shields trade. Should be another interesting week of corresponding moves. You have to think a move to address the rotation should be coming soon - with Ellsbury, Salty/Lavarnway, Aceves, and various minor leaguers all as potential trade chips and the FA market for pitchers beginning to take shape.

That would make a lot more sense than trying to move Kinsler to LF or CF. Question then becomes where do you play Olt and what do you do with Moreland? Most likely, Moreland becomes tradeable and Olt is the primary DH and gets time at 1B and 3B.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/phillies-acquire-michael-young.html Looks like the infield log jam has been broken a bit. The DH spot is now open, but they still have too many IF, IMO. 1B: Mike Olt, Mitch Moreland 2B: Ian Kinsler, Jurikson Profar SS: Elvis Andrus, Jurikson Profar 3B: Adrian Beltre, Mike Olt Olt and Profar are too talented and ML ready to play on the bench or continue to marinate in the minors. Still think there's another shoe to fall here.

And keep the tradeable prospects in house. Have De La Rosa, et al as more depth options.

This, coupled with some of his offensive flaws, which will certainly go noticed in Boston more so than Texas, are the main reasons I'm hesitant of the Sox committing to him. Even in Texas, where the media is much less of a factor, certain occurrences with Hamilton were taken out of context. Not only did it affect Hamilton at times, but the media purging spread to other players on the Rangers (Young, Kinsler, etc.) who, by all accounts, became fed up with the whole situation. We just got out of a situation where, warranted or not, controversy over the off the field actions of a group of pitchers became the front and center daily topic of the entire clubhouse. We all saw where things went from there. Is it worth repeating the risk, so soon after the latest debacle?

I respect your opinion re Hamilton and am not necessarily opposed to the Sox signing him. However, I feel there are implications that come with signing Hamilton that must be weighed in the decision, and IMO more heavily than many on this board are giving (which is why I addressed the draft pick and the importance of the Sox draft picks based on their track record of development in another post). In addition, I won't discount anyone else's opinion of any player, free agent or not. But I will say that, having followed Hamilton's track record since he arrived here in Texas, I think it's fair to say that he is viewed differently by baseball fans living here than fans in other parts of the country who don't follow him as closely. IMO, he is certainly a talented player and in the upper echelon of players in the game. But he certainly has flaws- some of which I've addressed in other posts. Since we both agree that Manny was an impact FA signing, I think it's fair to point out that there is a significant contrast between Manny and Hamilton in post season statistics (whether or not performance enchanting drugs played a role in Manny's post season successes). Manny's post season OPS: .937; Hamilton's post season OPS: .720 Of course it's fair to point out that these numbers could be considered arbitrary (different PA's, circumstances, etc.), but I consider them telling when you consider the quality of pitching you're facing in the post season and Hamilton's reputation of feasting on mediocre pitching while being below the MLB average against upper tier pitchers. For the right circumstance, I would be on board with the Sox signing Hamilton and would hope for the best with his time here in Boston. But given the other implications and my opinion of him, I'd rather see him sign elsewhere if his price is, say, above 3 years and $65-$70 M (plus a lost draft pick).

Not a personal attack on you, but winning is the only thing that will sell tickets in the long run. Whether Lucchino is the main person behind the push for splashy signings or not, we all know how risky that endeavor can be (Drew in 07, Lackey in 10, Crawford in 11). Outside of Manny in 01, I can't recall a splashy signing for a big name free agent that ended up working out for the Red Sox (Manny was also 29 in his first year in Boston- Hamilton will be 32 in May). Until the starting pitching is addressed (either by an outside addition and/or improvements from the current group), Hamilton won't be enough to sell tickets at the pace LL or the ownership group wants. We Sox fans, if I can speak for us as a whole, have seen the splashy moves fail far too often in the recent past to commit more faith as a group in next year's expectations until the real issue is addressed. I think it's doubtful that the Sox would see anything more than a normal spike in ticket sales and ratings after a Hamilton signing until there is sufficient evidence that this team's biggest weakness, the starting rotation, has shown improvement (and I think the FO realizes this too).