Orange Juiced

BC should call Theo and offer Gonzalez for Rizzo straight-up. What's Theo going to say? "No thanks, we like Rizzo better." - Um, wait a minute. Just 2 years ago you traded Rizzo *AND* two other top prospects just to get Gonzalez. And now you won't do Gonzo for Rizzo straight-up? Rizzo is exactly who you thought he was going to be. "No thanks, Rizzo makes too much money." - Um, wait a minute. First of all, Chicago is a major market, so contracts are no issue. Second, YOU were the one who gave Gonzalez all this money, so obviously you think he's worth it. "No thanks, I realize now that I made a huge mistake with Gonzalez." - Um, wait a minute. So you did, in fact, screw up majorly with that trade? Thanks for leaving the Sox in the lurch. (just saying)....

I would love for that to happen. Bring up Lavarnway, hope Lester and Beckett get it together and away we go.

Don't know if the plan is to limit Morales' innings. Maybe they do that by going to a six-man rotation, adding Cook to the list I gave a few posts ago. We'll see.

Tazawa for the time being, most likely. And then Bailey when he returns. A bullpen of Padilla, Melancon, Miller, Breslow, Aceves, and Bailey is pretty solid and really versatile. Leaves them with a rotation of Buchholz, Lester, Beckett, Morales, and Doubront. In theory, that *should* be a plenty good rotation.

A solid lefty so that Morales can move back to the rotation. Pretty smart move, IMO.

I'd try to do the following by 4:00 today: (1) Kick the tires seriously on Justin Masterson. Not having a good year, but has a live arm, was terrific last year, is just 27, and is cost-controlled for a couple more years. (2) Trade Cook and something else (a minor prospect, Aviles, Albers, whatever) to get a solid lefty reliever. Maybe to the Reds for Sean Marshall. (3) Move Morales into the rotation. (4) Wait-and-see on Beckett. Good chance he could be moved after the trade deadline. Why? Because he'll almost certainly pass through waivers, but if he gives the Sox a few good starts after that, teams might be interested in him. You have Masterson there to take his spot. Until then, Masterson serves in the bullpen as a nasty right-handed option.

Interesting quote from Joel Sherman of the NY Post: "The Red Sox earlier this month did try to flip Carl Crawford to the Marlins for Jose Reyes to address the shortstop situation. One AL executive said of Crawford, that Boston “wants him out in the worst way.” But the deal died." I think Reyes also has an overblown contract, but still....I think I'd have done that deal. His contract is a little smaller than Crawford's, and he provides them all kinds of offensive help at a position where it's difficult to get a lot of production. Maybe they wanted the Sox to throw in a prospect and/or take on Heath Bell as ballast?

From the mlb trade rumors site: "The Angels are telling teams they’d rather trade Vernon Wells than keep him when he returns from the disabled list. They’re looking for a trade partner and saying they don’t want to eat all of his salary, Stark reports. It’ll be challenging to find a taker for Wells’ salary; he earns $21MM per season through 2014." Ok. So do Crawford for Wells, straight-up. Crawford's contract: $122 million from 2012-2017 Wells' contract: $61 million from 2012-2014 Wells at this point still is possibly a better Fenway hitter than Crawford is, and he'd be fine in the small LF. Crawford, meanwhile, would probably do better in a larger ballpark where he could use his speed more. I could see him flourishing under Scioscia. It would give the Sox a little more pop from the right side, and it would free them up financially some 3 years earlier. I know that Wells isn't a very good baseball player anymore and he makes a ridiculous salary. But again, it gets them out from under the albatross three years early. And here are last year's stats, just for comparison: Wells: .218/.248/.412/.660, 83 ops+, 25 hr, 66 rbi, 9 sb Crawford: .255/.289/.405/.694, 83 ops+, 11 hr, 56 rbi, 18 sb It's not clear to me that Crawford at this point is a better fit for Boston. Those OBP numbers are hideous for either guy, but if you want to get rid of garbage, you're going to need to take garbage in return. At least Wells can still drive the ball and his contract is three years shorter.

Good question, Reddick v. Kalish. Here are their minor league career numbers. Keep in mind that Kalish is one year younger. Career minor league season stats Reddick (5 seasons, 466 g): 1821 ab, 86 hr, 299 rbi, 35 sb, .278/.332/.500/.832 Kalish (7 seasons, 412 g): 1553 ab, 45 hr, 212 rbi, 95 sb, .282/.370/.436/.805 AVERAGE PER 162 G Reddick: 633 ab, 30 hr, 104 rbi, 12 sb, .278/.332/.500/.832 Kalish: 611 ab, 18 hr, 83 rbi, 37 sb, .282/.370/.436/.805 I mean, both were good minor league players that offered the Sox a lot. Different emphases, really: Reddick with less speed and more power, more slugging and less OBP. Kalish just the opposite - more speed and less power, more OBP and less slugging. Pretty similar in terms of fielding. Minor league fielding stats: Reddick: .974 fld%, 2.18 RF/G, 62 assists Kalish: .977 fld%, 2.22 FG/G, 25 assists So Kalish a little better fielder, Reddick a better arm. All in all, probably six of one, half-dozen of another. Plus, keep in mind this: when they made the Bailey trade, Kalish was hurt so Oakland didn't want him. They wanted a healthy player in return. So they couldn't have traded Kalish even if they had wanted to.

They needed (I guess) a replacement for Papelbon. Bailey was available. The price was Reddick. They felt that the price was worth it. Obviously that hasn't worked out since Bailey hasn't even thrown a pitch for them, while Reddick has been really solid for Oakland, but a lot of Sox fans and management felt (and still feel) that Kalish is going to be good. That ship hasn't sailed yet...maybe he will end up being good.

I get that apparently the term "Monday" can be used as a racial epithet. What I don't get is how I am supposed to keep up with all the latest jargon because it seems to change all the time. I bet most people never heard that "Monday" was a slur.

My only hope with respect to Lackey is this: a lot of pitchers, having undergone TJ surgery, come back throwing harder and more effectively than they were before the surgery. So maybe Lackey returns in 2013 throwing 94 mph instead of 91, kind of like he was early in his career, and he regains the form he once had. He is a pretty gritty competitor so if he can regain some lost velocity he could actually be pretty solid. That's the hope anyway.

The issue would be cutting someone from the 40-man roster. So it might not make sense. But yeah, this is a pretty nice story...hope he can help at some point.

Heh. And at least Wells was coming off a good season. In 2010, the year before he got traded, he hit .273/.331/.515/.847, 125 ops+, 31 hr, 88 rbi. So he was productive. Beckett is in the midst of a pretty craptastic season so his value is naturally going to be lower.

I'd trade Beckett for Cole and eat all of Beckett's salary right now if that was actually on the table. And I'm someone who, earlier in this thread, advocated keeping Beckett through 2013 and then trade him after that. I just don't think there's any chance Pittsburgh would be interested in that, though I can see your logic.

The guy just graduated from UConn last year. He hasn't been in the Sox system for years and has "only" made it to A+ ball. This is his first year in the organization. They started him at Greenville (A) and he put up this line: 2-0, 0.34 era, 0.600 whip, 14.2 k/9. Ok, domination. So they then moved him up (after just 5 games) to Salem (A+), where he has put up this line so far: 5-3, 3.07 era, 1.12 whip, 9.5 k/9. Again, tremendous. I wouldn't be surprised if he's in AA by the end of the year. And he should spend all of next year in AA and then maybe AAA if they feel like that would help his development - often times the best prospects stay at AA, and teams use AAA as the place to put rehabbing guys, etc., so I don't know where they'll put him. And then in 2014, he should be ready to join the Red Sox, after just two years in their minor league system. In other words, he's on the fast track to the majors. Again, remember, they just drafted him last year out of college. Don't know what to tell you about Bogaerts, but I agree with what SoxFanForsyth said.

Pittsburgh has Cole and Tallion so perhaps they could afford to lose one of those guys. But if I'm them, I'm keeping them...they have such a bright future as an organization.

True, but again, worth a shot. Why not give it a go?

Given what my post #39 looks like, I think the only real major things I'd try to do if I was the Sox would be as follows: (1) Trade Ellsbury after this season. I love the guy but because he's a Boras client, he will absolutely be testing the free-agent market. And that means he'll get a 6-year, 100+ million dollar deal from somebody. And that will come after he turns 30. No thanks to that. So he's almost certainly going to be gone after 2013 regardless. So I think they would be well advised to move him and get something of value in return. And I think the return could be significant. Seek good young pitching talent that should be in the rotation in 2014. Maybe to the Braves for Julio Teheran, or to the Mets for Zach Wheeler, or to the Reds for Daniel Corcino. Something like that. A top pitching prospect who should make the majors in 2014. (2) Keep Beckett through 2013 and then move him after 2013. For reasons I stated earlier, he should (if his career pattern holds true, which it has for his *entire* career) have a really good 2013, which will not only help the Sox that year, but it will also increase his trade value. So after 2013 they can move him. The plan would be to have Barnes replace him in the rotation in 2014. (3) Try like crazy to move Lackey, even if it means eating a sizeable portion of his contract (which it almost certainly would). (4) Presently, move any and all excess to acquire even nominal prospects: Sweeney, Nava, Albers, Aviles, Atchison, Padilla, Ross, Miller, etc. If they can end up getting a bunch of somewhat useful prospects, those chips could be used to get one or two really good prospects, perhaps.