Yeah but that's certainly a limitation of xFip, which i like, but is not always reflective of the effectiveness of certain pitcher's skillset. Per xFIP, Lester was better in 2012 and has been better this year than he was in 2008, mostly because of K rate, and the normalization of HR rate, that is the reason why his xFIP was so high relative to his ERA too. I think both of us know that the 2008 version of Lester was better than the current version, even though the 2008 Lester actually had lower velocity than he does now.
I think that instead of immediately assuming that he got lucky with homers, we should instead look at the difference in Lester's pitch sequence and pitching habits. He's constantly behind in the count in the innings where he gives up big run totals. I know it's observation, but so many people talking about Lester's tendency to nibble and eroding command can't be wrong. Most of the problem is in his head.