jung

So is there something about Lannan that is not really in the stats? The Nationals just beat him in arbitration so they have him at $5M or something like that. CBS included in its report on Jaxkson that the numbers for Jackson are somewhere north of $8M for the one year deal. Why would they want Jackson at $8M and want to part with Lannan at $5M at the same time?

This is just opinion but I think the Sox interest in Oswalt is not what it once was if it was ever very great to begin with. I am not even sure they would be that interested in him at the $5-6M they appear to have offered him earlier although that would be a steal. I think they and other baseball professionals (which I am not obviously) think there is some downside to Oswalt that is driving their offers south to places that Oswalt finds unattractive.

They will have to be below the cap two years running to avoid the loss of the rebate though. Granted. 25% is not as bad a bite as 50% but avoiding it will require that they are under for two years straight. That is the only way to get back to 0% tax rate and get the rebate. So if they go over in 2012 making 2013 the first year under the cap, they will be hit for the cap penalty % rate in 2012, the 25% rebate in 2013 and the 50% rebate in 2014. If they stay under for 2012, 2013 and 2014, they pay no % rate penalty in 2012, 2013 or 2014 and get their 25% rebate in 2013 and their 50% rebate in 2014.

According to CBS, Edwin Jackson just signed with the Nationals today

Going over the LT slightly no longer works as a plan because it now costs you your revenue sharing rebate as well as the rate penalty that you have to pay.

I think we will come out of this offseason saying that the Sox did not want to spend big money on the likes of Jackson or Oswalt, made offers they thought they could make them and have decided to wait and see if somebody distinguishes himself out of all these arms they are bringing to ST. I now don't think they will take a shot at Floyd either unless they can get him under terms ridiculously favorable to them, preferring instead to see where the team is at the trade deadline. So be it if that is the case. I still think the Sox will be fun to watch, will be to an extent competitive if the players extend themselves and will have made progress digging themselves out of a kind of whacky group of contracts that they have been left with from an era of somewhat undisciplined spending. They have spent a good deal of money pursuing that one last deal that would put them over the top the last few years. When you do that and it works you are a hero. When it doesn't work you are stuck with the consequences. The Jenks signing is just a pure waste and the Crawford signing regardless of whether the player did well or not, was a huge overpay that has left them in an ugly spot once Ells hits the FA market. Those are two good examples. There are things I wish they had done differently this off season but they are not things that anybody that has watched the Sox over any period of time would have considered completely unlikely. I guess the degree to which they seem willing to bring in this pitching pot luck group seems un-Sox-like, but that is the other shoe dropping from the really huge expenditures they have made that did not pay off. I do think they are also inclined to look at being "competitive" from the perspective of players being more responsible for their performance on the field both from the perspective of how well they take care of themselves ala' conditioning and then their actual play. I don't think Sox ownership is even interested in building this "paper tiger" projected into the WS from day one. The responsibility is squarely on the shoulders of the players this season more than usual. If they sink into a cesspool of self pity I think you will see the housecleaning of players at the end of 2012 that you might have thought would happen at the end of 2011. If they play solid baseball, doing their best with what they have, then I think ownership will feel better about spending money again going into the 2013 FA season. I don't really like their chances this year but I think I see what they are doing whether I like it or not.

There must be some print media on this somewhere but the Sports Tonight talking heads are reporting that there is a snag now in getting the extra WC team this year. The Players Association is stepping in and asking the "what is in it for us" question from what I can see. The extra WC can very well be derailed for this year according to these guys.

Actually Selig has been pondering Theo's potential value for a long time now and can't decide weather the Sox should send Ells or Peddey to the Cubs to compensate for Theo! Sorry, could not help it.

I think Gammons might have gone Hollywood. He seemed to have better insight at one point in his career. Must have started to read his own press clippings. Pardon my own bias but Edes is an idiot. YMMV of course.

Well I do think the Sox at some point must have switched gears and went from focused on Oswalt to focused on Jackson. I suspect that Oswalt's rumored preferences are more than rumored and the Sox finally decided they were pissing into the breeze. That said I still don't think the Sox are willing to engage in bidding wars for any of these guys and I think that will finally if anything end any real chances they have with regard to Jackson or Oswalt. That does not mean they will not end up with somebody. However the closer we get to ST I wonder if they will give the "gang of 12 or whatever" their shot to impress hoping somebody distinguishes himself before trying to reengage with some team for a pitcher. That might be another takeaway from BC's most recent comments which coincidentally come as we are getting closer to ST.

I would not be so fast to call what the Sox FO announces as posturing this year. They have so far stayed pretty close to what their stated intensions have been I think. I would say that on balance they seem to have been penny wise (Scuts for a salary dump) and pound foolish (Ortiz Arbitration). I think their pronouncements of being content with the current roster is more an indication that they are not going to get into bidding wars for pitchers or anybody else for that matter. Whatever they have been offering these guys is likely as far as they are willing to go. That may at the end of the day be what governs their ability to sign Oswalt or Jackson. Hard to imagine they have active offers for both Oswalt and Jackson. Much easier to see them concentrating on one of the other.

I do wonder what the heck the Cards actually told Oswalt. Hard to believe that they would not let him compete for the 5th spot in the rotation and hard to believe that Oswalt would be shortsighted enough to think that at least one if not more of the five guys that start the season in the rotation don't end up going down to injury or fail to meet expectations at some point. When push comes to shove if I had to bet, I would bet that Oswalt does finally end up with the Cards based on the premise that he competes for the 5 spot and wins it or is the first option if somebody falls from the rotation due to injury or over some other issue. That might make Jackson the more likely candidate to come to Boston. He may be the most likely candidate between the two of them anyway regardless of whether we like Oswalt better or Jackson better. At least Jackson does not appear to have a vested interest in staying away from the AL East.

I agree 700. I don't think the Sox have made serious efforts or offers in the case of either of these two pitchers. I think the Sox presume them to not be falling into the price category that they want although they could get close. That is the rub I think. If they made a concerted effort they might could land one of these guys but I do not think that is what they are interested in doing. I don't think they will get into a bidding war for either guy even if it means only another $1M-$2M on top of what they appear to want to spend. All opinion of course but I think we would have seen more from the Sox by now if that is where this was headed.

The farther into the distance we get from the Scuts thing, the less sense it makes to me. Not having any good or even decent options at SS is one thing. Having the position basically covered and then going from that to this makes very little sense to me. It is almost like they are forcing the issue on Iggy. Is the plan to go with two also rans at SS until midseason and then bring Iggy up? In the background of all of this I guess is the chance that they can still stay under the cap but that seems less and less likely unless they are going to trim even more payroll. They would likely have to win the Ortiz arb to have a shot at staying under if they even have a realistic shot at this point.

Well the Sox though BC had been saying right from the start this offseason that they were looking for some low risk high reward deals to be the payoff. Maybe we just misjudged how far they were willing to push that. I do go back to part of the discussion I had with Jacks yesterday. The Yanks went into 2011 with significant question marks in the rotation in my estimation but had a solid pen supporting them. We have question marks in the rotation and I don't think the Sox 2012 pen can be counted on to do for them what the Yanks pen did in 2011.

The other thing that sort of struck me about V's comment regarding another SP not being number 1 on his player wish list is that I wonder if that is having any impact on the Sox in their efforts to sign one. It certainly is not critical to the process but it would be nice if V thought he needed another SP. I doubt the Manager's input is anything more than that, just one input but it still would help if V was commenting internally that another arm would be the number 1 priority. If it is not a pitcher I cant imagine it being anything other than a SS.

I really did think the Sox would be fixated on this $5-$6M number. Assuming all these reports are accurate, it is almost like they are going to keep offering $5-$6M or less until they find somebody that will take it. I am interested in V's comment that a SP is not number 1 on his player wish list. I would be interested to know what V thinks is number 1 on his player wish list if it is not another good SP. I guess it would not surprise me if he said it was a SS but that would also suggest that he might have had something to do with Scuts being gone after all. As for Ortiz I have been wrong before about the whole damn Arbitration process but the two sides are so far apart that in order to support their offer of $12.5 against a counter of $16.5, the Sox will be forced to make a case that will likely be pretty tough for Ortiz to swallow. It is not like they are trying to bridge a $1M gap. They are miles apart on the value spectrum.

Once it starts falling apart for pro athletes it starts falling apart pretty quickly. With any luck at all Wake won't be able to find the plate with that knuckler with a laser range finder meaning he is truly done and not an option even if the Sox are desperate. The way he was going at the end last year got to be painful to watch. Not sure he could do anything worth talkin' about if he tried.

Crawford's injury should not cost him months of the regular season. But nobody needed a solid spring more than Crawford did especially since confidence in Fenway, what goes on between his ears seems to be as important for him as everything else, maybe everything else combined. Care to bet on his having a solid spring at this point?

I agree Spitball. There is a reason for all of those offers around $5M and I don't think Detroit at $10M was credible or I think Oswalt would have taken it.

I was referring to the question marks in the Yankee rotation at the start of the season. AJ has been question mark for his entire career it seems, although he must be your aforementioned innings eater. Hughes had not pitched more than 86 innings in any season other than 2010 and had actually averaged something like 55 innings per year until then. He went 76 innings in 2011. Nova as you mentioned Jackson, was a big plus. I think the big question for Colon was the fact that he had not pitched in the majors since 2009 and his chronic weight problem and knee surgery. Could he keep the weight off and if not would his knee cave? The issue was not weather or not he could still run it up there. By the way now that he has put most of the weight back on or had by the end of last year, the question for his career is likely still the same. Will his knee cave under all that weight. So my point was that CC was a great 1, and while AJ eats innings you expect more from a guy in that spot than eating innings. Everybody has always expected more from AJ and it has not happened. Colon had his surgery and weight to contend with. Hughes had to be a question mark but I think Garcia looked like a good 5 from day 1 but you like to have fewer question marks ahead of your 5. So the Yanks got 76 out of Hughes and bout 150 innings each out of Colon and Garcia. Without the Yanks pen do you really think they would have done as well as they did? That is probably the biggest fly in the ointment for the Sox if they are going to try this. Can the pen make up for the potential injury and/or performance question marks in the rotation? Not many sure things in the pen so far with the exception of Bailey and maybe Melancon and Miller I guess. While the pen is not really full of question marks with the exception of some young guys it is not really full of guys that have excelled in their careers. Some of them have been solid however. Don't see this Sox pen so far as able to do for the Sox what the Yanks pen did for the Yanks in 2011.

Well, for a time, there were reports that a few teams were right around the same $5M offer. I do think it unlikely that with several offers of $5M in front of him there was ever any real shot at luring him to the AL East but I think I see why BC would have offered $5M. That reminds me, didn't I say weeks and weeks ago that the Sox were going to try to get somebody not for $10M, not for $8M but for $5M. That is not an I told you so. I simply mention it because I think we can now use $5M to Oswalt as a benchmark for other offers they might make to a SP. I also really question the Detroit offer at $10M. That would have been way over what anybody else had offered at the time. Oswalt is going to end up pitching somewhere for way less than $10M it would appear to me. If so that sort of says something about how much he wants to avoid either the AL or anywhere north of Ft. Worth unless it is an NL team. I think Detroit offered him something. Boy I find it hard to believe he would turn down $10M to pitch for Detroit. Why...well lets say he does get his multiyear deal next year. What is that going to be? 3/15? A bird in the hand etc. Why turn down 1/10 for a shot at 3/15 even in a tougher pitching environment? and then with everything else swirling around Oswalt what would make Detroit stupid enough to give him $10M to pitch in that tougher environment. I can believe an offer that was part salary and stuffed with incentives.

Agreed, I had given up on Oswalt so long ago I no longer have the memory banks to remember how long ago it was. To be honest I wish he had just not announced anything. Let it be. The professional baseball people likely had this figured out. Hell if we had it figured out what do you think the chances are that they had it figured out? The announcement to me was just salt in the wounds and that is what I did not like about it. I would have preferred Oswalt just shut the hell up about it. You announce publicly that you are going somewhere, not that you are not going somewhere!

Geez the way things are going we may be desperately awaiting the return of Wake at some point. I am beginning to suspect that Wake has been hung out there as a possibility for the most obvious of reasons, the one way all wanted to avoid. That he is in fact a possibility. Aceves and Bard were both going to report to camp preparing to start because.....they are both going to start. Now that Oswalt has made his historic announcement (dick-head), I am not sure the Sox will give what it takes for Floyd so that has them looking past Floyd to somebody if that is the case.....or....nobody. At this point like it or not I suspect nobody is a real possibility....except of course the aforementioned Wake. I think they have got to find a way...a deal that gets them something between Oawalt and Wake. I wonder if the Yanks obvious success last year going into the regular season with CC, Gum and Band-aid for a rotation empowered the Sox to try this route.

True enough. The point is there is no immediate solution for the real problem. The real problem is that there is to much payroll tied up in to few guys. As a result when the Sox have an injury we get dog s*** McDonald or his equivalent. The Sox are just as likely to end up where they did in 2012 as they did in 2011 for that specific reason. It will take more than one year to right this ship in my opinion and it will take a recognition on ownership's part that there is a steep price to pay for stocking up on these glamor signings leaving nothing behind them. It is a sucker's bet because the chance that those few guys where you have invested the bulk of your money will all perform to their potential and/or avoid injury is slim to none. In fact you can just about guarantee that some number of them will be injured at some point during the season which makes leaving dog s*** behind them even more ridiculous. If I had to guess I would guess that the Sox started down this road because they thought it was the best way to compete with the Yankees. That is like bringing a knife to a gun fight and if you think about it, it never worked with the possible exception of 2007. It probably does keep the fan base blissfully dreaming that a $270M revenue line is the same think as a $460M revenue line. That is the lesson they need to take from this and in my view if they have not or don't they are doomed to repeat 2011 over and over again. They have just about become the 25 players, 25 limousines Red Sox all over again except now it is the 25 players, 11 limousines and 14 Yugo's Red Sox. They would be much better off with 25 players, maybe 3 limousines, 10 Audis, 8 BMW's and a few VW's. That would likely be a team that was easier to manage, hungrier, that took better care of themselves and had improved chances of being successful in a division where you somehow have to find a way to compete with the Yankees.