If CC and Peddy would have the same OBP and Same Protection (Six4Three's argument) (translation: get on base in equal circumstances [not how many bases]) all would be reduced in measure their power (SLG) in order to know how close/far are from home once they got the base, and their ability on the paths (SB ), in order to rest a R's expectancy case; (some would say, take the OPS[OBP+SLG] & SB, i would say you can't, since it is important to measure separately, and clearly mark the difference once the guy take the base) but let me start with the OBP and see where it goes. Since their OBP are different, you can analyze their metric from any period of time in order to compare apples with apples; so... I would ask you all, which split time do you want to take/set/or would be fair? (ORS's (last 162 games) P's .369, CC's .335//// P's MVP's year .376 vs CC's last 5Y without 2008 (his best record) .355//// 2011 P's .361 CC's .283//// Last 28 P's .365 CC's .337), Which period?
I would say in order to be fair and set a tendency, that CC is a .355 OBP player (considering he's been around that number in 2006,2007,2009,2010 although he hasn't showed it in Boston yet in any split time, hope/waiting he shows) and Peddy is .373 (considering he's been around that number in 2007,2008,2009,2010). I would say that those 4 years/avg. are a decent base to start a case, so... .355 is not a bad OBP for a 1-2 spot; the thing is that you have already two better in that department and as i said, CC hasn't shown those numbers yet.
Since the OBP is not a "true" percentage because the SF is considered in the equation, i will despise the SFs number(or just keep it as a constant in the equation) in order to rest my case. With those numbers, Peddy would be on base 242 times/650 AB and CC would be on base 230/650 AB, so… A 5% deficit would represent 12 more times on base by Peddy if both take the same turns ABs this year. The fact would be: Peddy will take more times the bases, but... are 12 more times on-base taken through 650 ABs a big deal in order to score more Runs and take that spot?, even more; considering that the other guy once on base could use his better athletic conditions, and already hit, his bat power could send him further on the paths... Check out the numbers in the same period of time... CC's (avg.) SLG 473 & SB 53; P's(avg.) SLG 468 & 20 SB (his highest SBs ever). Here i found out 3 more bases taken by power (SLG) and 33 by SBs; BottomLine: 36 more bases taken by CC's once on base.
Who would you chose in order to generate more Rs early/trough in the game (assign a 2nd spot)? A guy who would be 12 more times on base in 650 AB or a guy who would take 36 more bases once on base in the same number ABs.? THINK!,
EDIT/TIP: That difference could be analyzed via linear weights!
The most recent version of the formula is:
BR = .47H + .38D + .55T + .93HR + .33(W + HB ) - ABF*(AB - H) or
BR = .47S + .85D + 1.02T + 1.40HR + .33(W + HB ) - ABF*(AB - H)
Where ABF is the coefficient calculated so that the Batting Runs for a league is equal to zero:
ABF = (.47H + .38D + .55T + .93HR + .33(W + HB ))/(AB - H)
