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iortiz

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Everything posted by iortiz

  1. iortiz
    Yup, U? Loves it. U? Said that he hates me more than 100 suns burning or something like that. Probably Fred is at 80 Suns and my friend A700 at 60 Suns according to his hateometer LOL!
  2. iortiz
    Me too.
  3. iortiz
    I would like to make you a bet about Lester vs Porcello but I do not want you get offended, since your are kind of sensitive.
  4. iortiz
    Naah he calls *******s to players and some of the FO, on the other hand UN? Insults other posters a diestra y siniestra, FACT!
  5. iortiz
    Are you done bullying Fred? What happened?. Also, didn't you have on ignore?, what happened? isn't for pussies anymore? I'm confused. Make sense! Stop whining! What in the hell are you even talking about? ...
  6. iortiz
    I used 4% since FG use this rate to project salaries. Let me make the math about this and project the NPV.
  7. iortiz
    Hi Bell, I haven't read it, I will. On the other hand as I said, one thing is projections and other what the market is willing to pay and what he will end up posting. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but how many SP with a track record of an ERA of 4+/2.5 WAR got a contract like this. Furthermore, and that's my opinion, I do not see any team throwing at him this contract if he posts what his track record suggests 4+ERA/2.5 WAR at the end of the season which is what at very best he will end up posting. On the other hand, if he improves in terms of WAR what a good player according to FG suggests, and if he is capable to keep his ERA aroumd 3.5 like he did last year, this contract will be fine. The debate about Porcello is if he can post that. IMO the answer is no. Probably the majority around here think that he will and easily, reason why I offered that bet which given the projections is really,really friendly for those who believe in those projections.
  8. iortiz
    You can not emit an opinion/projection about the team until August (unless it is good one), Fred. Don't you get it? Haha
  9. iortiz
    Seems like a new cliche is in effect.
  10. iortiz
    Well Fred, some posters like UN? will always see all like a rainbow regarding the Sox and always will try justify the thing like the pitching, no matter what, it is what it is. Listen, this thread is like blasphemy here Fred LOL! Beyond the debate, unfortunately the answer to the question which I used to start the thread is going to be likely Yes at the end of the season, we'll see though.
  11. iortiz
    Porcello is 3 steps downstairs from Lester in my books. He is a 4+ ERA pitcher with horrible SO/9 rates.
  12. iortiz
    Growth/variable rates through the life of a project make sense when the excersise is long, at least 10 Y I would say. A simple compound discount rate represents pretty well the behavior of a cash flow of a given excersise when the time is under 10 Y. On the other hand, as you said, the Sox are expecting this guy improves because his age, sox defense or whatever the thought is behind, but not to perform as his track record suggests (2.5 WAR/4+ ERA). IMO this guy doesn't have the stuff to survive in ERAs under 4 in the coming future reason why I offered that bet, and reason why I think this commitment is horrible . Of course still to be seen how this ends up.
  13. iortiz
    The salary inflation that FG uses to project salaries, does not justify high AVV unless he improves. As I said you do not understand how engineering economics work
  14. iortiz
    The discount rate to project salaries is at 4%, so 20 M in three/four years for a #3 is still too much. My approach to grab a 4 ERA pitcher in a year basis would have been different without commit 80 M and likely cheaper.
  15. iortiz
    I That's the thing. I do not think he is going to improve. Some here disagree which is fine. IMO, At very best He'll post what his track record says and given the NPV of the contract, there's no way he worth 20 M in the next 4 Y, If he doesn't improve those numbers. Probably everyone here disagrees with my opinion, reason why I offered a bet which on paper was very friendly for those who think the opposite. It's going to be interesting.
  16. iortiz
    Nice try, but the fact you don't understand how the time value of money works is not my fault. Paying high AVV with discount rates at 4% is stupid.
  17. iortiz
    To understand the cash flow and NPV we are talking about.
  18. iortiz
    What you do not understand is how engineering economics, time value of money, cash flows, and discount rates work. The discount rate used by FG to project salaries is 4%. This rate is not even comparable to some discount rates used in other industries which are at times above 2 digits. If we were talking about, say a discount rate used in some verticals of the chemical industry which are around 20%, I could understand and justify this 4 Y-contract looking forward, since the NPV would look pretty decent. Said that, the only way this contract works, is that this guy improves his track record, which is to be seen.
  19. iortiz
    Wow! De la Rosa is nothing but a bust.
  20. iortiz
    You mean last season?, if so I'm Oks with that, although his WAR was not good.
  21. iortiz
    He has not shown to be a very very good pitcher, nor good pitcher. He is nothing but a solid one in terms of WAR. His track record does not justify 20 by any means. Something around 3.5 makes you a good pitcher, nothing more, nothing less... Say a decent No. 2 .My guess is that our FO is expecting this from him to justify his contract.
  22. iortiz
    The terms of the contract are not that long. It is only 4 years, and given the discount rate that FG use to project salaries, the NPV is not that different from the current salary in a year basis (20 M). Said that if he still posting something around 2.5 WAR/4 ERA, this contract will be a disaster. Every offseason out there are some pitchers who can post something around those numbers in a year basis without commit all this money and cheaper.
  23. iortiz
    Expecting ace performance from Porcello? Not at all pal. If he post an ERA around 3.5 (No 2. Type) or in terms of WAR around 3.5 (good player), I will call it deal. Put that in your sig.
  24. iortiz
    oh, that is a very different animal. Some here were saying that this FO is expecting what he has shown in the recent past which is something around 2.5. I agree with you, I think this FO is expecting more from him to justify this contract. If he continuous posting a 2.5 WAR in the next four years, this contract will be a disaster since as far I remember no one with a 2.5 WAR track record is making 20 M. As you said time will tell, though.
  25. iortiz
    Again, how many pitchers with a 2.5 WAR track record are making 20 M these days aside Porcello? it's a honest question.
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