Couple things -
- Through 145 G in 2011, the Red Sox had a 4.5 game lead on the Rays in the WC. Through 145 G in 2013, the Red Sox have a 7.5 game lead on the Rays in the AL East. In order to lose this lead at this point, it would require a bigger collapse than 2011.
- If the Red Sox play .500 baseball (or a tick above it, I guess, since there are 17 games left), and go 9-8, they would win 96 games. For the Rays to win 96 games, they must go 18-2. Hell, if the Red Sox go 4-13 the rest of the way, for the Rays to tie they'd have to go 13-7.
- The Sox still have games against TOR (who no longer has Bautista, as he has been shut down for the year) and COL. Those are two very easy series.
- The Red Sox play 17 games in 20 days from here on out. The Rays play 20 games in 20 days. And they're coming off a horrific west coast trip. Their bullpen arms are obviously getting tired, and their starters aren't performing well at all. Not to mention they're ice cold with the bats.
No, this is not another 2011. If the Red Sox and Rays play exactly like 2011 from today on, the Red Sox win the East with a 2 game lead.