AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Angels
WC: Yankees
WC: Rangers
Yankees beat Rangers, CC over Yu.
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: DBacks
WC: Giants
WC: Braves
Couple things about the Rays. First off, their offense is horrid. Last year, they OPS'd .724 as a team. They lose Kotchman and pick up Pena, more power, way less average, way more strikeouts. Increase of OPS by .019. They pick up Luke Scott, and lose Damon. Again, I see very little or no improvement there.
Think about everything that had to go right for them to make the WC last year. Hellickson threw to a .223 BABIP and an 82% strand rate. His xFIP last year was worse than Lackey's. His FIP (4.44) will probably be more indicative of his ERA this year. Not saying he'll be a mid 4's ERA guy, but a 3.9-4.1 ERA is about right. They had Kyle Farnsworth cut his ERA in half last year and post a 2.18 ERA (and he now has a barking elbow and is going to start on the DL). They had Joel Peralta come in and somehow throw to a sub 3 ERA as well. The entire bullpen overperformed (ERA of 3.73, FIP of 4.14). The SP staff well overperformed as well (3.53 ERA, 3.99 FIP) whereas the Red Sox SP underperformed (4.49 ERA, 4.36 FIP).
I think the Rays have a very good SP staff, one of the best in the game, but I don't think they are as good as they were last year in the SP department, especially not the bullpen, and I don't think their offense will be able to pick up the slack when Hellickson's ERA starts to trend toward his FIP, or when Matt Moore starts to have some rookie hiccups, and especially not when the bullpen implodes.