SoxFanForsyth

I don't know how this has gone so unnoticed, but the 2011-2012 offseason is almost an exact replica of the 2009-2010 offseason. Saving money for the upcoming FA class. Would not surprise me in the least to see the Sox sign a guy like Cole Hamels and trade for a guy like Matt Garza mid season this year, and sign to an extension. Very much like the 2010-2011 offseason.

Just simmed the entire season on MLB 12 The Show. Here are the results. AL East: Red Sox 96-66 Yankees *WC* 94-68 Rays 88-74 AL Central: Guardians: 102-60 Tigers: 92-70 AL West: Rangers: 107-55 Angels: 92-70 This game doesn't have the 2 WC's but if it did, it would have been the Rangers and Angels fighting out for the 2nd slot. Red Sox Stats: Ortiz had 39 HR. Gonzo had 33 HR. Ells had 32 HR. Pedroia had 26 HR, 114 RBI (I had him in the 3 slot). Crawford sucked, .247 with a .735 OPS. Pitching: Lester: 13-5, 3.18 ERA Beckett - 15-9, 3.63 ERA Buchholz: 10-5, 3.76 ERA Bard: 12-9, 4.59 ERA Miller: 10-7, 5.86 ERA Doubront: 7-9, 5.22 ERA (They have Doubront rated very poorly in this game) Aceves: 3.44 ERA Bailey: 2.21 ERA, 50 Saves, 8 Blown Saves Melancon: 3.61 ERA Morales: 2.50 ERA A lot of the numbers are pretty true to form (Beck, Buch, Lester, even Bard), some are way off (Doubront, Ortiz HR total, Crawford). Regardless, that's the simmed season. EDIT: For what it's worth, I simmed the 1st month with Crawford out of the lineup. Also, Buchholz only had 26 starts because of an injury.

Everytime I turn around, I keep hearing people comparing Cody Ross's swing to that of Jason Bay. Maybe not 36 HR power, but if he can be 25-30 HR power and hit .255-.265, that would be a huge addition.

You can look at ST numbers if you'd like, I prefer not to because they're extremely deceiving (See: Toronto Blue Jays). But if you want to - the Red Sox have a 3.90 ERA this spring. The Rays have a 4.46 ERA, and the Yankees have a 3.72. For the Sox, Beckett has a 0.95 ERA, Lester a 3.50 (but was nothing short of outstanding in his last outing), Buchholz a 4.80, Doubront a 2.70, and youv'e cited Ace and Bard. For the Yanks, CC has a 4.50 ERA, Pineda a 3.31 (albeit with lower velocity), Nova a 6.86, Kuroda a 2.91, Hughes a 2.03, and Garcia a 2.92. For the Rays, Sheilds 2.04, Price 3.79, Moore 9.00, Hellickson 10.13, Niemman 4.05. If you're just looking at those numbers, the Sox have the 2nd best rotation, well above the Rays, and have a much, much better offense. But, the Blue Jays have a 2.60 team ERA, which is why I don't read into these numbers, both for team and individual.

Requiring 200 IP of 3.00 ERA baseball from your #3 starter? Who in the AL East has that pitcher? Lester and Beckett won't even give that to us. Buchholz will be good for 180-200 IP of 3.35-3.50 ERA baseball, which is plenty enough for this team to win the AL East. And bomb prone? Going all the way back to 2009 for that one. And by the way, over the last 2 years, he's thrown 256 IP to a 2.70 ERA. His ERA was bumped up to 3.48 before getting hurt last year, but he was finally starting to settle in right before he got hurt, going 5-0 with a 2.59 ERA in his final 9 starts.

I have an excuse for not getting laid. I'm married. But since ST is so important and stats and records mean so much right now, I guess we're in good shape because the Rangers and Rays are going to be sub-.500 teams this year.

Wow. Reading through the thread today. Just wow. Some people need to get laid.

Uh. What?!? Pedroia had a 17.9 UZR last year (best in MLB ). How is he a plus to neutral defender?? Pedroia is an elite defender. Not sure what you're saying with him. I would say Aviles and Youk are both average to below average defenders, and I think the left side of the infield is a big hole right now. I think Iglesias gets about 150-200 AB's in AAA and then gets called up in mid to late May, and he'll significantly strengthen the left side of the infield. But until then, I am concerned about it.

Hang on, hang on, hang on. Joba does this to his ankle, and Jackso says it's feasible that he comes back in 3 and a half months. But DiceK has TJ Surgery last May, has been making huge strides, and has physically looked great both in BP sessions and in live batting practice as well, has a target date of June 1, but he won't be back until September?? How does that make sense.

Sounds like both Bobby V and Bard are up for the challenge. There will be growing pains, but there will also be brilliant games as well. The good thing is that Bard has been efficient with his pitch counts. Like I said earlier - His strand rate is going to be more than 30% this year, so a lot of the runners that are scoring right now would even out during the year. But that's beside the point, because ST stats are meaningless. If they weren't, the A's would world beaters and the Rangers would be cellar dwellers, etc. Bard's got another start or two before the season starts. His walks are progressively lowering. His offspeed stuff is progressively getting better. And his K% is progressively getting higher. I'm good with him as a SP or in the bullpen, but I think he will succeed in either role.

5.1 K/9 while in Boston. How is that having put away pitches??

Derek Lowe put up 3 seasons of 4.07 ERA sinkerball baseball in the AL East as a starter, and that was during the steroid era. He had 1 horrible season (2004, 5.42 ERA) and 1 brilliant season (2002, 2.58 ERA). So average those together with his seemingly normal season in 2003 - 4.47 ERA, and I think that's around what you can project for Cook. Around a 4.1 to 4.4 ERA. Lowe had a 5.1 K/9, probably around what you're going to get from Cook. Threw a lot of strikes (2.8 BB/9) much like Cook (Career 2.8 BB/9). I think Lowe is a very good comparison, and I think you can probably expect to get the same out of Cook as you got out of Lowe - a low to mid 4's ERA.

That's a horrible comparison. Aaron Cook is not going to come out and throw to a 5.85 ERA like Byrd did. Cook was hurt in 2010 and 2011, and for the 4 years preceding that, he threw 748 IP (averaging 188 IP per season) to a 4.11 ERA. And it's not like he played at Petco. I'd say Coors is a pretty good hitters park. I'm not saying he's going to be a sub-3 or even sub-4 ERA guy. But if he can go out there, grind out innings and throw to a 4.2-4.5 ERA, eat up 180+ innings, what more can you ask from your #5 guy?

Against the Yankees last outing, albeit a not-so-regular Yankees line up, Cook threw 48 pitches over 4 IP. Averaging 12 pitches per inning is fantastic. That gets this team through 7-8 innings right there, and even if it is 7-8 innings, 3-4 ER, that's still a 4 to 4.5 ERA, which is exactly what this team needs. Someone to go out there, get quick outs, grind out 7-8 innings from the 5th slot, and keep this offense in the game because if we can have a guy who goes out and does that, he'll win 10-12 games for us from the 5 slot.

I have no idea what you guys are talking about. Doubront has stepped up big, big time. How many of us were talking about him in December and January? And what has he done? Come out and put up quality outing after quality outing after quality outing, thrown to a 2.70 ERA even though stats don't matter much in ST (see Pedro Ciriaco), and been extremely efficient with his pitches (78 pitches in 6 innings vs MIA). If that was Buchholz, Lester, or Beckett, we would all be very pleased with those results. If that was Bard, we would all be glimmering with hope. Doubront has absolutely stepped up. And I'd actually say that Aaron Cook has stepped up as well. The guy is the definition of efficiency. 9.1 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 0.86 WHIP, 2 ER, 1.93 ERA. It's the guys that we expected to step up (Bard, Aceves) that have let us down. But the unexpected guys have been throwing lights out. I would absolutely say that Cook and Doubront are the favorites for the #4 and #5 slots right now, and I'm 110% ok with that because that bolsters our bullpen tremendously.

Definitely still a very encouraging outing. I like him in the 4th slot, but at the same time, if he gets moved to the pen and Cook takes the 4th slot, I'm not going to complain. That would make our bullpen pretty lights out.

Yeah - website was messing up. I had same problems. I thought Bard looked good, especially for a #4 starter. He essentially went up against the Jay's A line up. Luckily we don't have to count on him to be an ace, but if he can consistently throw like he has today, this team is going to win a lot of games.