Will617

Montero's issue isn't arm strength, it's his throwing mechanics apparently. I'm not sure either is good enough at catcher right now to make a comparison matter, but I do think that Lavarnaway has improved faster than Montero has, and that his defensive ceiling has been underestimated since he sort of came out of nowhere. Personally, I think that Lavarnaway can stick over the long-term with mentoring from Varitek/work, but he's definitely not ready to catch right now, and with Ortiz raking there's really no reason to bring him up. Of course, I'm probably biased about Lavarnaway's future ceiling, but I do think that he'll be an average to slightly-below-average catcher in the future.

This is only true of this year, and was definitely not true last year. Lowest fastball velocity was 90.7 MPH in 2008, when he had a decent season (3.75 ERA and 3.83 xFIP). This season his velocity is 90.8 MPH on his fastball. Last season his fastball velocity was 91.5 MPH. His career average was 91.1. So it's more than just fastball velocity.

I could see Hanley getting traded in the offseason. Definitely not now, while his bat's cold. Apparently the Marlins organization doesn't really think it's a good idea to keep him around anymore, but Loria loves him.

The Sox have $126 mil on the books next year. They need a 5th starter, DH, RF, closer and money for arb raises/bullpen. If they fill out the 5th starter and RF positions internally (Doubront and Kalish), and spend about $10 million on the DH spot, they still have about $30+ million to play with, which should be plenty to resign Reyes. If they do trade for Reyes, I don't think there is any way they don't extend him.

a700 - article's about HanRam. I have really high hopes for Lavarnaway. Even if he turns into a below-average catcher, if he keeps hitting the way he is he could be a valuable piece going forward. And I think his trade value is lower than his actual talent.

Personally, I think that Lavarnaway, Ranaudo, and Kalish are our most important prospects. I'm not sure if Iglesias can develop his bat all that well, but Lavarnaway has shown he can hit at every level, and I don't think Salty gets much better than he is now. Those three are the prospects that I'd want to part with least (unless Reddick turns into an All-Star, or Salty proves me wrong and hits 40 HRs or something). I'm also not sure how highly other MLB offices value Lavarnaway, since he flew under the radar somewhat for the performances he had.

Only problem is, it also sounds like the price might be lower because he isn't envisioned as a SS for much longer. Basically, we would be trading for a 3B or corner OF.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trading-hanley-ramirez/ Sounds like price tag will be 2 top-10-ish prospects from the system. I'd imagine for the Sox, it would involve either Lowrie or Iglesias and someone else.

What was Lackey's injury? Was it something that would affect his delivery in some way? His dip in BABIP is also possibly a result of different outcomes (i.e. fewer line drives), or better movement and location, or luck. .270 isn't a ridiculously low number, I think that it's possibly sustainable.

Maybe we could offer them Andrew Miller as part of the deal. I wonder how much the Marlins FO would appreciate the irony.

HanRam is signed for 3 more years after this one, but those 3 years average $15.5 mil per year. I don't think the Marlins are looking to dump payroll though, since MLB has been pushing them to up their payroll. My biggest concern about him is his defense. I think that he's a more talented player than Reyes in every way (and he probably stands to benefit from playing at Fenway more than Reyes does), except his defense is pretty awful.

HanRam hitting the market would be pretty interesting. I'm still not sure if I like the idea of gutting our system now, but I think that this might be a better deal than one for Reyes (although not necessarily more likely, just a better target IMO). If we do deal for HanRam or Reyes, I think Lowrie will move the other way, because he's 1. expendable, 2. super-cheap, and 3. a decent player. Which will certainly help lessen the impact on our farm, but I still think it will cost a lot. I'd imagine the asking price would be similar to what the D-backs wanted for Upton, and more than what the Padres got for A-Gon.

I don't know, getting the Marlins anywhere right now would be a pretty good debut...

Where's this great offense of the Phillies everyone's talking about? They're just about league average in the NL. Of course, they missed Utley for awhile, but it's not like they have a ton of great hitting talent besides him, and Victorino's having a career year which helped make up for it. Reddick's performance is probably due to small sample size, but I'd like to see him get another shot. Problem is I think he's a better left-handed hitter than he is right-handed, so he wouldn't see much playing time when Crawford gets back. Kalish is going to be playing in the minors before the end of the month, is what I remember hearing.

Anyone with that much past hype and pedigree will get another shot. Teams are always willing to make that kind of investment. High hopes for this kid's start. I think the most important thing to see is good command of his pitches.

I know, I'm saying that when you look at it from Cincinnati's perspective, they lose 3 prospects and they gain Scutaro. Scutaro's salary isn't big at all, it's something that they could cover. I don't think that they would be willing to give up that much just for Scutaro.

I don't think there is any incentive, because I think it's really easy for the Mets to get rid of Beltran. Contending teams are willing to take on salary without giving up prospects, if they think they're on the bubble and need a bat. And it sounds like the Mets are willing to eat salary to get prospects back. So I doubt that there's any incentive to get a lesser deal for Reyes and get Beltran off.

First, I was only referring to deals involving Reyes only. It's pretty obvious that no one needs to make much of an effort to acquire Beltran. But it's not like we're going to demand value or leverage from the Mets for the privilege to have Beltran off their books. 1/4. You can't have your cake and eat it - if the Mets were so desperate to dump salary this year, AND they were in trouble for future years (as you would suggest by arguing that the deal proves they're in deep s***), there's no reason to leave Wright untouchable. But if the Mets aren't in so much trouble for future years, I'm sure they can afford the $3 million Reyes is due for the rest of the season. Also, the stake in the team was sold without anything from SNY, which is a major part of the Mets revenues (maybe even the most lucrative parts). Which explains why they had to cut a pretty terrible deal. But that doesn't mean they sell off any player for mediocrity. 2. Acting quickly doesn't matter, at all. If the Red Sox make a move, other teams will also make a move. If the deal gets done 20 games faster, the Mets save about 15% of Reyes' salary. 3. Like I said above, I don't think Beltran matters at all in terms of this trade. I'd think of it as two deals, basically - one deal for Beltran, and one deal for Reyes. Any team can acquire Beltran for very little, and I'm sure that there will be some suitors. But giving up Reyes could possibly cost the Mets more in monetary terms than keeping him.

1. You're making a bigger deal of this "omg he could buy the team for $1" issue than it is. They wouldn't have that provision if they weren't confident of paying back the $200 million. 2. Even if the Mets FO is completely idiotic, it's not like every other team in baseball couldn't top that offer to get Reyes. It would literally make no sense for the Mets to take an offer made up of players projected to become utility players if they could get a better deal. 3. It would be completely idiotic to dump your star player to save $3 million. They lose so much revenue from trading him that it's not likely to be worth it. 4. They're not trying to trade David Wright, and he's making a ton more than Reyes. That doesn't exactly sound like a team so desperate to dump salary that they would give up Reyes to the first bidder, does it?