Palodios
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Everything posted by Palodios
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Sure there is money coming off the books, but there will be money going onto it as well for more long-term team friendly deals, along with several additions to the bullpen, and whatever necessary money needs to be thrown around. What I am talking about is being able to anticipate who will cost what, and which prospects will contibute where, and my conclusion is that Ellsbury will not be part of the long term equation.
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Money to value ratio, his will be the least team friendly.
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No one seems to realize that there has been a significant gap in the farm system. Buchholz debuted in 2007. From 2008-2010, the only player to emerge was Bard, and that will definitely drain on this team's resources. There is also a very real possibility that the Red Sox may continue to lose popularity to hockey and football and won't be able to charge 100 dollars a ticket anymore. There is also the possibility that Crawford turns into a monster bust, and the team will have to deal with that. Of the "Core-Five", Youkilis is probably the most expendable, but Ellsbury is a close second who is significantly more expensive.
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Drew/Cameron/Scutaro's number are already accounted for in escalating contracts. Losing Beckett will leaving a very large hole to replace as-is, and I could very easily see Youkilis taking over as DH. You also have to factor in those new player friendly contracts for the younger guys.
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The two biggest concerns about Crawford-- terrible splits and playing on turf-- are not issues with Ellsbury, which is why I think someone will be willing to pay bigger money for him. A small market team like the Nationals could swoop in and grab him.
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I wouldn't disregard that post. It is usual Sox-pesimistic Jacko, but it is very true. Pedroia, Youkilis, Buchholz, Lester are all worth 15-20 million. Is it worth keeping Ellsbury if it means we'd have to get rid of Pedroia/Buchholz/Lester/Youklis?
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The Cards are having a fit giving 300 million to Pujols. There is a big difference there. Ellsbury is better than Crawford was last year in several different ways, plus he has Boras, and we'd be looking at two years later in an OF starved market. 200 million is not completely out of the question.
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Would you like a list of the players that the Red Sox have let walk when the contract got out of hand? This organization makes those hard decisions. When Ellsbury's legs go, he's half the player he is now, and you think they'd want to sign him till he's 39?
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If he were to hit free agency right now, he'd be worth 200 million. Compare his season to Crawford's 2010-- higher OBP, less strikeouts, quite a few more HR, more steals now, defense is probably a wash since Crawford plays a corner, even splits, hasn't played on turf. The Sox will not pay him that much.
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Just because this team has three guys with ace potential doesn't make them aces. There is one legitimate ace on this team, plus Beckett who is incredibly inconsistent, and Buchholz, who has exactly one great season in his career. I see no problem trading a guy like Ellsbury who is going to be gone in two years for potentially a career of an elite talent like Felix who is 25 years old, and will be a 300 game winner if he stays with the Red Sox.
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Wilson will demand a contract of 80 million, easy. He won't be worth anywhere near that, and the Sox will need to make significant cutbacks if they put that kind of money on him.
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I also think we'd be selling high on Ellsbury. He's a good player and all, but I seriously doubt he'll hit 25 zingers in 2012.
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Once again, I emphasize, trading Ellsbury would be a longshot. He will only get moved for one really awesome piece (an ace), or two very good pieces. Really good player, MVP potential, women love him, unlikely to resign with the Sox. Sounds like a certain SS doesn't he? I also wouldn't put it out of the question for him to be traded to Oakland for one of their three aces, since their offense is so abysmal. Ellsbury for Cahill could be an interesting idea.
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Dejesus and Willingham are hitting .230 and .246 respectively, but will still demand big money because Dejesus has usually been a .300 hitter, and Willingham has some good pop in a weak OF market. If the Red Sox are going for Felix, they'd probably be a bit short on money, use Reddick/Kalish for their OF, and pick up a platoon RHH that hits lefties well.
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Lester-Felix-Beckett-Buchholz-Lackey. Kind of makes me giddy, I don't know about anyone else. And that is still with an offense that has Crawford, Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez, Youkilis, maybe Ortiz, Saltalamacchia/Lavarnway, Kalish, Reddick, +SS.
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I called it a longshot. What I'm assuming is that one of the team's four very good LHH OF will be traded, and Crawford is not going to be that player.
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Why is it that whenever I talk about big monster trades, the first impression is a two-team deal? When it comes to trading big players, there is atleast a 50% chance of a third team involved. Ellsbury to X, Prospects from X to Seattle, more prospects from Boston to Seattle, Felix to Boston. If it would cost Ellsbury, Ranaudo, Doubront to get Felix, would anyone blink for a second?
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Definitely count on one of Reddick/Kalish/Ellsbury to be traded next year. I know Ellsbury is a longshot, but I think that if he's not willing to sign with the Sox longterm, at this point he is so valuable, he may be good enough that the Red Sox could get an ace for him in return.
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Tito may not like him, but re-signing him is an absolute no-brainer. If the organization has to go over Tito's head on that one, they will. He has had an excellent career, will be incredibly cheap, and has been very very consistent-- something that is very valuable in relievers, who as a group tend to vary from year to year.
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Also, I would pretty much assume Wheeler's $3 million option will be picked up next year. He had a really rough start to the year, but he has a 1.86 ERA since the All-Star game. A bullpen arm of his caliber for a one year deal at that price would not be found anywhere on the FA market. I think they do go over the luxury cap this year. Ortiz is staying in Boston, and I definitely think they'll try to find a good #3 pitcher to close out this rotation, and none of that is cheap.
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I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox asked Scutaro to re-negotiate a deal to stay in Boston. The buyout is 1.5 million, the player option is 3 million, and the team option is 6 million. I could see him staying aboard for 4 million (as in, the Sox spent 2.5 million to keep him here).
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