We've been agreeing a lot lately. Strange.
That being said... I do think this is a good team. I think they're one move away from being World Series contenders again, but I think that getting that other pitcher is absolutely 100% crucial to the season.
We're looking at the same problem we saw last year-- replace a good player with a league average player, and you don't lose much for production. However, if you replace a guy like Buchholz with a guy like Kyle Weiland, not only do you lose most games with him on the mound, but it also kills your bullpen. That's just as big a problem, because it not only means you lose games with the bad pitcher on the mound, but you wear out your bullpen for when your quality pitchers are out there.
In 2010, the Red Sox's starters pitched 6.24 IP per game.
In 2011, the Red Sox's starters pitched 5.80 IP per game. Going into 2012, they replace their durable closer with a closer who will need rest, and move their setup guy into a starter role where he'll actually be contributing to the problem-- overworking the bullpen.
During Weiland's starts, he average 4.333 IP.
During Bedard's starts, he averaged 4.70 IP
During Miller's starts, he averaged 4.84 IP
During Aceve's starts, he averaged 5.02 IP
Lackey and Wakefield? Both around 6 IP.
Even if they keep you in the game for those innings, the bullpen has to pitch 4-5 more innings after they leave. These are similar to the numbers we'll see with guys like Padilla/Cook/Doubront/Tazawa out there. It will be a fundamental issue that is going to wreck havoc on their bullpen.