Tough call because of the disparity between the leagues. Halladay, for example, was very good in Toronto, almost unbeatable in Philly. Sabathia is helped by Yankee stadium. Lee is better in the NL. Hernandez is a slow starter, and doesn't get much run support. Lincecum had a off-year last year, for him.
In terms of expected performance this year, I would say Halladay, Lester, Lee,Lincecum,Sabathia.
Dark horses: Jiminez, Kershaw, Buchholz. Buchholz had that one bad start at the end of the year, which may have cost him the Cy Young. He was ahead in ERA until that start.