redsoxfan3

In 2012, we saw Youk get traded away to make room for Middlebrooks. You are absolutely correct. If a player is talented enough and is producing, there will be playing time for him. Look at Bogaerts this postseason. He stuck with Drew for the entire postseason, but he eventually gave Bogaerts a chance to start over Middlebrooks and never looked back once Xander proved he was going to produce.

Oregon lost (I am an Ohio State fan, by the way; I went there for two years). Now it is time to screw the Buckeyes again. With Stanford being ranked 5th and beating Oregon who is ranked 3rd, I have this feeling that a one loss Stanford team jumps Ohio State. It would be unfair in my opinion, but the weak Big 10 schedule the Buckeyes have might allow that to happen. We shall see. Hopefully 'Bama loses to LSU and FSU will be #1 and the Buckeyes will move up to #2.

That is from MLBTR. There have been contracts projecting McCann in the 5 year and 80M range. I do not know what "slightly less" actually refers to, but maybe around 5 years and 75 million?

You mean OBP, right? I was referring to 2013 numbers. I do admit that it is an extremely limited sample size for Ross.

What does Theo Epstein have to do with signing FA's for 2014? I never mentioned anything about Theo Epstein, not to mention I was using McCann as a comparison that I think he would be a better option to platoon with Ross. Everyone needs to get over Epstein. Cherington is going to try his best to sign short-term contracts, but there are going to be exceptions along the way. McCann might be one of those exceptions. I think you are referring to OBP. Ross had a .273 OBP last year against RHP. It was well below his career average. No one knows if Ross will bounce back to his career average against RHP. I just don't like a platoon with Ross and Hanigan as my first option. Maybe it is just me. I do understand that Hanigan is the "type of batter and defensive player the Sox employed this past season to win the World Series." I just don't understand why we need two of the same type of player. We already have one of that type of player in Ross. Last season we did not have two types of the same player at catcher to win the World Series. I think it is a better option to have a guy like Salty or McCann to hit LH against RHP. While Ross was huge in the postseason, he only played 36 games during the regular season. Not to mention Hanigan only played in 75. I realize we have Lavarnway if need be, but I would much rather have a guy like Salty or McCann to do the bulk of the catching, with Ross platooning and doing more than your average backup catcher. Ross and Hanigan had injury problems in 2013. We can agree to disagree on this. I am not completely against getting Hanigan. Maybe I should be more clear in saying that if we cannot sign McCann or resign Salty, then look to get a guy like Carlos Ruiz or Ryan Hanigan. They are both realistic options that we have to consider. I just am saying that I would prioritize McCann or Salty as plan A. If McCann is too expensive and we think Salty is asking for too much, then we can go with Hanigan or Ruiz as plan B.

That is the problem that I see here. We already have David Ross. We do not need two of him. I am all for a good defensive catcher, but we don't need to platoon two backup catchers. Ross and Hanigan can both be considered more than an average backup or as a platoon catcher, but in my mind, I don't like having both on the same team, especially since both are RH and hit lefties better. I am not too comfortable with that platoon at all. Salty is better against righties and Ross is better against lefties, therefore we had a pretty effective platoon last season. Brian McCann is better against righties as well, that is why a platoon with Ross and McCann could be effective, just like it was in Atlanta.

I do agree with you about that. If we could keep all of Bradley, Bogaerts, and Owens, I would be happy to land Stanton. Replacing Ortiz is going to be tough. I am not disagreeing at all with you about acquiring Stanton or your outlook on him. I just sure as hell do not want to give up Bogaerts, Owens, or Bradley in doing so. Count me in if we can package Cecchini, Betts, Ranaudo, and Barnes for him. Fair enough. As I already said, if we can land Stanton with your aforementioned package, then I am all for it. If we have to include Bogaerts, Owens, and even Bradley, then count me out.

Do you think that we can realistically land Stanton without giving up Bogaerts? If I were Miami, I would not accept any offer from Boston without a package that includes Bogaerts.

That is understandable. I would highly doubt that Beltran takes over in CF. We would have to move Victorino to CF and Beltran would start in RF. We lose a lot defensively by having Beltran in RF rather than Victorino, but we also gain a lot of power offensively with Beltran's bat in the lineup. BC was saying the other day that it would take a lot to move Victorino out of RF. I think that signing Beltran would be a reason to move Victorino or trading for Stanton, however, I prefer signing Beltran over trading the farm for Stanton.

Stanton turned 24 today. He is young and isn't a FA until 2017. I just don't see the need to give up several top prospects to get him. I have never liked the idea of trading several quality prospects for one player. I know Stanton has a lot of power and is really young, but I would rather keep the prospects and try to resign Napoli and sign Beltran on a short term deal. Beltran and Stanton posted identical WAR's this past year at 2.4. Beltran's dWAR was -1.5 and Stanton's was -1.4. Beltran's oWAR was 3.2 and Stanton's was 3.3. I know that Stanton is the younger player, but why potentially trade guys like Barnes, Ranaudo, Bradley, Bogaerts, Webster, etc. to land one guy? I think it makes more sense in the short-term and the long-term to keep our prospects and try to sign a guy like Beltran if we are looking for a power bat in RF. Defensively we almost get the same type of production in the short-term, and we could deal with everything else in the long-term as needs arise.

The above is from MLBTR. Napoli has a multiyear offer from the Red Sox and he has said that he wants to return to Boston. He could just be saying he wants to explore the market to possibly gain some leverage in negotiations maybe hoping for a higher AAV from Boston. I do not know what the offer is in years or money, but I think there is a high probability that he returns next year. There is mutual interest. The above is also from MLBTR. The thing that I do like about the possibility of signing Beltran is the chance for a short-term contract. The thing that I do not like about the possibility of signing Beltran is his age and how he can play. Can he hit as well as he did in 2013? He will be a veteran guy in the clubhouse and on a short-term contract, he could be a really nice addition to this lineup. He would almost certainly shift Victorino to CF and would play RF if we sign him. If he were to sustain some sort of injury, we do have Bradley ready to go. I would love to see a lineup of something like: Victorino Pedroia Ortiz Beltran Napoli Gomes/Nava Middlebrooks Salty/McCann/Ruiz/Ross Bogaerts Of course that lineup is just a rough draft. I don't know the exact order. If I remember right, Beltran hit second for the Cardinals quite a bit. I am not sure if Farrell would have Pedroia or Victorino lead off. I imagine it would be Victorino because Pedroia does not like to lead off, although I think he would be successful as a lead off hitter. I think Pedroia will regain some power next year if he can successfully recover from this thumb surgery. If he is fully healthy, that could be a scary power lineup. Ortiz, Beltran, and Napoli have a lot of power in the middle of the order. If we would sign McCann, then McCann, Middlebrooks, Gomes, and Bogaerts also have the potential to hit for a lot of power. This is just my personal opinion, but I think Ellsbury and Drew are gone. I think we resign Napoli. Salty is still up in the air. That depends on how bad we want to go after McCann or Ruiz, and if Salty is willing to take a hometown discount. I also think we try to heavily shop Dempster around, even if we have to eat some of his salary. With five solid starters, we still have depth of Workman, Webster, RDLR, Wright, Barnes, and Ranaudo. I would rather have a #4 and #5 of Peavy and Doubront over any combination with one of those two and Dempster. I also am hoping we go hard after one of Brian Wilson or Joe Nathan to help as a set-up man and as closer depth. Bailey is a question mark, and even with Tazawa and Breslow, I think we need to add a reliable arm to help out in the late innings.

BTW, let me start off by saying I do not necessarily think that the guys I mentioned in my post above are the right guys or best guys for this team to sign. I was just throwing options out there. Young played 24 games in LF, 26 games in RF, and the rest in CF last year for Oakland. He does have the flexibility to play all three OF positions, which is a plus. He could start against lefties in CF and Bradley could start against righties. That might not be a bad platoon. It is definitely interesting, not to mention that Young is capable of playing LF or RF if need be. If we have Carp, Gomes, Nava, Bradley, Victorino, and Young all on the roster, odds are Carp is the odd man out. I know it is nice to have him play at 1B if we need him to, but with Nava capable of playing 1B (assuming we sign Napoli or another 1B, then I don't really see a fit for Carp on the team if they were to carry him as a 6th OF or backup 1B). Also, I do not know how realistic it is to sign Beltran, especially after having interest in the Yankees, but I could see Victorino moving to CF if we sign Beltran to play in RF. We would lose a lot of speed in RF, so I know BC is probably trying to avoid that. The bat would be the main reason to sign Beltran. It is just something interesting to think about.

We all know Papi and Pedey are here to stay. I want Ells to stay, but I am in the same boat as you. It just goes to show the difference between a franchise player and a player that wants to make a big payday. Pedroia is a franchise player and took a discount to stay in Boston. Ellsbury, with Boras as his agent, is ready to make a big payday, which it is not fair for anyone to be upset with him because this is a business. I agree with you about the off-season. It will definitely fly by. Spring Training will be here before we know it. There are five areas that I think we need to focus on this off-season (in no particular order): 1) C- McCann is an option and so is bringing back Salty. Pierzynski is an option on a one year contract. Obviously there are other options. 2) 1B- Napoli is the guy I want back. James Loney, Justin Morneau, and Kendrys Morales are also options. We would be taking a big risk on Corey Hart, but he is another option. There are other options as well. 3) CF- Do we resign Ellsbury? BC recently said that it would take A LOT to move Victorino out of RF. Is Bradley ready to take over CF? Choo might be an option that would put Victorino in CF. Rajai Davis is an option for CF with a lot of speed. He only played in 108 games last year and 95 in 2011. His career OBP is only .316, which is a long way away from Ellsbury's .350 career OBP. There are other options as well, I just wanted to throw Davis in there because of his ability to steal bases. 4) Bullpen- Uehara is our closer. Bailey is arbitration eligible again. Hanrahan is a FA that I am willing to take a pass on, unless he comes cheap on a one year contract to rebuild his value. Brian Wilson and Joe Nathan are free agents. I would be all for signing another guy to be in the set-up role. Tazawa, Breslow, and Workman will all be back. Hopefully Andrew Miller can bounce back. Morales is arbitration eligible. We do not need a lot to complete our bullpen, but signing a veteran like Nathan or Wilson could really help. 5) Utility IF- If we do not resign Drew, Bogaerts starts at SS and Middlebrooks starts at 3B. If we can find a solid utility infielder who has a decent stick, then we will be a good position. The problem here is finding that. A lot of the utility infielders are good defensively, but are not so good offensively. Is a Nick Punto or John McDonald reunion possible? McDonald is a long shot. Punto would be a better option.

The decrease in market value is due partly to discounting the posting fee and to account for uncertainty. We do not know how Tanaka will transition from Japan to the U.S., just like we did not know with Dice-K or Darvish. The uncertainty there is partly the reason why Darvish did not not make more money per year. The other aspect is that a team has to pay a posting fee. It is to be expected that a player with no prior experience in the majors should not earn 20+ million a year. Would a team pay 6 years at 120 million plus a 50 million posting fee? I highly doubt it, but it looks like we might be heading down that road. I cannot tell you what the increase would be if we did not pay a posting fee of 50 million for Dice-K. It is out of my control to predict or estimate something that did not happen. All I know is that with the current rotation that we have, with the decision making of BC, and with the limits set forth by FSG, that is going to be the only way we can make an organizational and team decision to go after Tanaka. Yankees fans are used to overpaying players. We were there at one point and should avoid that at all costs. We lucked out with A-Rod and I am glad we did not sign Tex. This past offseason is going to be a programmed and recurring decision that is going to be a model of how we try to sign players. There are going to be a few exceptions to that along the way, but for the most part, we had the luxury of signing one, two, and three year contracts to put together a championship team. We did not have to sign Josh Hamilton or another 100+ million dollar contract. I am sure we will somewhere down the road and maybe it starts this year with Ellsbury. The main reason I bring this up is to point out that Tanaka is easily going to be a 100+ million dollar investment with a posting fee and contract. I was happy when we signed Dice-K as well. I do not know many people that were not happy. The question is, did we learn from that or are we still going to try to take another chance? It is all within the decision making of ownership and baseball operations. It is out of my control. BC put together a championship team this year. I am not going to stress out about things that are out of my control. If BC and ownership decide to sign Tanaka, then great, I am going to trust they made the right decision. If not, then I am comfortable with the starting pitching as is.

I don't think that he was referring to you calling it "funny money." He was just making it a point of emphasis that the 60 million has to be allocated somewhere. It is a little easier for us to spend someone's money on something because it is not coming out of our pocket. He was trying to make the point that BC is working with a limit that FSG is setting forth, therefore, we do not know what that limit is and it is hard to tell if that 60 million is a reasonable amount of money to be spending on a posting fee of a player. You are correct that the owners are probably having a lot of fun after winning the World Series. It is something that they hopefully enjoy doing. Protecting a valuable asset is huge. You are talking about an intangible asset of winning. There is no physical substance related to winning. It is hard to measure that in terms of dollar amount. The 60 million is an amount that they can easily measure in terms of dollars, it all comes down to whether the owners think that Tanaka will be a good investment or not. 1.3 billion is a lot of money. That would be an extremely nice payday. You could be right that Tanaka will help this team win if we do sign him, but it is really hard to measure the impact that he will have in terms of overall value of the Boston Red Sox.

I am right there with you on finance and investments, I am one semester away from graduating with an accounting degree. jung summed it up pretty good. The main issue here is that it is still 60 million+ dollars that is being spent. In terms of materiality, that is a large material amount of money to be investing just to be able to negotiate a contract for one player. It is hard to really estimate the effect that it has on the net income or net profit without seeing other factors involved on the balance sheet and income statement. We can really get into the acquisition of the Boston Globe and the value of the asset that John Henry was able to capitalize from the goodwill, but that really is irrelevant to the main focus. jung hit it spot on when he was talking about FSG's payday will really be when they sell whatever asset is being held for sale. The idea of adding value or increasing the value of an asset is the main concept. Think about it like buying a house that needs renovated that you are going to sell. You buy the house for $100,000 and put $50,000 in renovations to increase the value of the house. Then say you can sell the house for $200,000. You would yield a $50,000 return on a $150,000 investment. That is not a bad payday. The moral of the story is to add value to an asset to make a profit later on down the road. That is a different strategy that is not related to a posting fee. The problem is that the posting fee has to be allocated somewhere. jung's second paragraph nicely explains about the baseball operations aspect of things.

Another couple of interesting topics. Pedroia is having surgery on November 12th. The surgery is supposed to be more complicated than expected, but will only require a couple of more weeks to recover. Pedroia expects to be ready for Spring Training. As tough as he is, I imagine that he will be ready for the start of Spring Training, if not, definitely before the season barring any setbacks. Salty also has yet to hear from the Red Sox. It is still extremely early on in the offseason, but it is an interesting topic. He did not receive a QO and I can't imagine that he will not talk to the Red Sox at all about a new contract. The only way I do not want to resign Salty is if we can sign McCann, but only time will tell.

You are right that a posting fee does not impact the luxury tax threshold, but it is still coming out of the pockets of Fenway Sports Group. Whether a posting fee "makes sense" is subjective. That is up to ownership to determine, so you are right that we, as fans, do not really know if the posting fee "makes sense." The only return on the investment of the posting fee is the reward from the production that they will get in return from Tanaka. As of right now, I do not see ownership paying 60+ million plus however many million dollars for a contract that it will take to land Tanaka. That is just my personal opinion based on where we are at in terms of starting pitching and the depth related to it. If the price is right, then I am all for it, but I don't see that being very likely.

This... ...and this is exactly how I feel. Tanaka could turn out to be a great pitcher and we could say that we could have potentially have made a mistake by not signing him, but is the posting fee and the money that it will cost to sign him worth the risk? If we only had four starting pitchers, I would be all for going after Tanaka. This guy has been rumored at around $150 million in expenses. Remember Dice-K? Before someone ridicules me for that, I am bringing up the point that we do not know how his stuff will translate into the majors. It is a big investment.

That is a risk that the Red Sox and a lot of teams are willing to take. The hip was fine this entire past season. Like I said, he is playing 1B for a reason and not catcher. You are contradicting yourself. You said in your previous post that you want to offer him a 4-5 million dollar contract that is incentive laden on a one year deal, but now you are saying that 14.1 million is not that much of a risk. It is not incentive laden at all. It is completely different than what you were saying in your previous post. The last part of your post doesn't make sense. If he goes down with a hip problem in 2014 if he accepts the qualifying offer, he still will make 14.1 million no matter what, so how do you calculate 9.1 million in there? The 14.1 million is guaranteed. One year is not really that big of a difference. It isn't like we are talking about a 25 year old Napoli versus a 35 year old Napoli. He almost signed at 3/39 last year. He proved that his hip can last through an entire year. I fully expect the floor for his contract to be somewhere at 3/39. I don't really understand why that is hard to believe. He almost got that contract last year.

I just don't think that is realistic. He played on an incentive laden contract this year because there was a lot of concern with his hip condition. You say that "nothing has changed with his hip condition between the beginning and end of the 2013 season." That is not really a true statement. He does have a hip condition, but he proved that he can play 139 games this past season with his hip condition. A lot of the concern had to do with him catching with his hip condition. Playing first base is not as physically demanding as catching, but that is exactly why the Red Sox signed him to play first base over catching. There is still some concern related to his hip condition (and there always will be), but that is not as relevant this offseason as it was last offseason since it was not a factor this past season. I think he can find himself a 2 to 3 year contract in the 26 to 39 million range, respectively. He did enough this year to justify not signing an incentive laden deal as of right now. That might be the case later on down the road if the hip condition turns into a problem. My preference as of right now is to sign him to a two year, 26 million dollar contract, with a team option for a third year at 13 million. This way if the hip does become an issue, then we do not have to pick up his option for the third year. A team is going to offer him more than a one year contract. If you think we are going to offer him a one year contract of a 5 million base salary that is incentive laden, you will not see Napoli playing in Boston next year. We are offering him a qualifying offer, so at the least he will be making 14.1 million next year if he doesn't get a multiyear contract.

Not to mention, Salty is 0-6 with 4 K's (he does have 2 BB's). I know Ross has had his fair share of K's as well with 6 in 3 games, but he had a huge hit in game 5. He is hitting .250 in three games. Ross is the better defensive catcher. When he is hitting better than Salty (even with a small sample size), it is almost a no brainer to start him over Salty, because offense is the only reason you want Salty in the game over Ross. Game 4 and Game 5 we have came out with W's. Ross started in all three of the wins. You have to play the guy who is getting the job done.

We need this win tonight and need to take 2 out of 3 on the road. Let's start off with the win tonight. Let's go Red Sox!

That is a very relevant point. I think it will be hard for Farrell to sit Drew because of his defense. Game 3 could be the ideal time for Farrell to put Bogaerts at SS and Middlebrooks at 3B, but I just don't see Farrell going away from Drew. I think we really need to hope more than anything that he can start to add some value offensively before we will see a Bogaerts and Middlebrooks combo on the left side. He doesn't have to hit home runs, at this point we can use him getting on base no matter what it takes (walks, errors, bloop singles, etc.). In my opinion, I think it is more of a question as to who starts at 3B in game 3. Will it be Bogaerts or Middlebrooks?

He has a point to what he was referring to. Moving forward in the series, Gomes is 0-7 in two games and Nava is 1-2 in two pinch hit at-bats. It would be more than fair to start Nava in game 3 with another righty. A lot probably has to depend on who is going to hit behind Big Papi. Obviously, with Big Papi's bat right now, he is starting game 3 against a righty. We lose Napoli in the lineup and that means Nava is probably hitting 5th. The other argument is to look at Kelly's splits. Against righties, hitters are hitting .270. Against lefties, hitters are batting .245. Not to mention, hitters are hitting .279 against him in St. Louis as opposed to .237 on the road. Gomes obviously has the better splits against lefties and Nava has the better splits against righties. This will be a tough decision for Farrell to make. I think he could justify it either way with Kelly having better success against lefties. Gomes is more of a power threat, but Nava has had more success against righties. We are going to be at a disadvantage without Napoli in the lineup, even without his high strikeout rate in the lineup, we lose a huge power threat in the middle of the lineup. The positive is that he will be able to pinch-hit when needed.