Can Dalbec continue his current plate discipline into next year?
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-bobby-dalbecs-improved-plate-discipline-sustainable/
Through July 31, Dalbec was slashing just .216/.260/.399, with a 4.4% walk rate, a 37.5% strikeout rate, and 11 homers in 296 trips to the dish. That, coupled with less-than-stellar defense (it’s still rated as a negative), gave the Red Sox every reason to option him to Triple-A.
The poor start and the hot stretch since have resulted in season stats — a .245/.306/.497 slashline and 111 wRC+ — roughly in line with what I’d peg as his true talent level.
Dalbec has now walked more times since August 1 than he did from Opening Day through the end of July. That seems to indicate a change under the hood. And yet when we take a look at Dalbec’s plate discipline metrics, there isn’t anything that immediately jumps out as the basis for his much-improved walk and strikeout rates.
His contact rates are up, but that wouldn’t explain the increase in his walk rate, or a decrease in strikeout rate of this magnitude. His O-Swing% and his swinging strike rate are both relatively unchanged. Is Dalbec just a case of extreme noise in the discipline department? Maybe, but it’s worth checking the count-specific data to see if an approach change in two-strike counts can explain these results. Maybe Dalbec is generally the same hitter in non-two-strike counts, but has tried harder to avoid the strikeout when faced with one directly. That’s basically what he told Abraham in that September 12 story when he said, “I’m comfortable taking strikes in the zone knowing that’s not the pitch I want. Then just battle with two strikes.”
Dalbec’s contact rate on swings with two strikes has jumped by more than 11 percentage points from the first stretch of his season (up to July 31) to the second (August 1 and on). In all other counts, it has actually gone down.
Is Dalbec swinging at fewer two-strike pitches outside of the strike zone, resulting in these higher contact rates? What’s odd is that his two-strike chase rate hasn’t dipped much between the two stretches: From 39.7% in stretch one to just 36.0% in stretch two. Perhaps when coupled with an increase in his in-zone swing rate in two-strike counts, from 88.2% to 93.2%, we can begin to put together a picture of what is happening. Dalbec is making better swing decisions in two-strike counts, thus yielding more contact and, as a result, fewer strikeouts.
While some hitters have a propensity to increase their contact rates with two strikes, the relationship is pretty noisy and may not be a skill that is sustainable year-to-year.
Even though he’s had a 25-game stretch with a strikeout rate as low as 20.5%, other strikeout-prone types have done the same. Joey Gallo had a 25-game stretch with a strikeout rate of 24.3% this season; Javier Báez is currently in the midst of a sub-25% strikeout rate stretch; and Tyler O’Neill had one as low as 21.0% in July. Sometimes, even the players who are the most inclined to strike out crush everything and avoid the whiff, but mean reversion eventually runs its course. While it’s been fun to watch Dalbec have so much success, some of his underlying numbers demonstrate that he’s only made slight changes to his swing decisions. As with most players, his full-season stats describe him best, making this stretch likely just a small blip.