Dojji

I don't really believe in "this player bats X in tis part of the lineup" except as statistical curios. Unless it's painfully obvious that hitting in a certain spot gets in a player's head (like how some hitters struggle in the leadoff spot for example) I consider that stuff to be at most a tiebreaker.

I agree. I do worry though that sticking Holliday into the conversation just creates a vacillation we don't need. at least for the time being, all Sox efforts FO need to be focused on on re-signing Bay. If it gets to the offseason and Bay wants to test the waters, then you talk about other options. We have a lot to lose if we screw this up though so I hope we aren't taking half measures or trying to get clever.

No, I think we're actually still noodling around the initial argument for once. Although I still don't really feel I have a satisfactory answer for exactly WHY people don't seem to feel that a 30-35 HR hitter is somehow not a true #4.

Youks is a fine hitter. Very good even. But he doesn't have Bay's power and only beats his OBP by a handful of points. I'd say of the two, it should probably have been Bay hitting fourth this year. I don't know exactly why Tito felt otherwise.

If you want to see it that way. However, right now the guys we "have" barely includes Bay, and there's some heavy lobbying from certain quarters to jettison him. That's a big part of why I'm a little sensitive where he's concerned. I think we're at real risk of losing offensive might rather than gaining it this offseason. If we ignore Bay and try to "get cute" with Matt Holliday, it could cost us the opportunity to get either player. Anything you acquire at that point amounts to a desperate effort to make up lost ground. I would rather overpay to keep Bay than "move on" to nothing in particular. If you can get someone else as well as keep Bay? Fine. But Jason Bay would be a better #4 hitter than anyone we currently have under contract for the 2010 season.

I think there's some merit to that.

Strikeouts help BABIP more than they hurt it. Which brings us to the whole crux of the problem. For some reason you don't believe a 900+ OPS, a 131 career OPS+, on a consistent 30 HR hitter, represents an elite level of offense. I challenge you to find three other left fielders in this league who hit as well as Jason Bay. That's the top 10% of starting position players. Surely doable for a hitter that isn't "elite."

That, or maybe something much simpler. Like say the known fact that Howard will chase out of the zone on breaking pitches while Bay is more patient and makes you go after the strike zone, which is easier to do with a fastball. The fact that he consistently produces at near-elite levels is more valuable than a career year.

I think if Theo died in a car crash and we got any one other team's GM in compensation I have to say the guy I'd go for is Friedman of the Rays, not Beame. Now there's a guy who does a lot with a little.

He has a high LD% and he put up those BABIP numbers for three full consecutive seasons before he got hurt. Remember, before his knee injury he was actually close to being a 5 tool player and he still has above average speed. That helps BABIP a lot. Interesting point. Bay certainly did get luckier in 2005 than he did this year. However, I do wish to remind you that Jason Bay has hit 30 or more HR's every full year in the majors except his rookie year, and his injury-stunted 2007. He also maintains a well above average OBP and OPS, even for a left fielder, which is one of the reasons I was challenging you specifically on Howard, because he doesn't. Statistically the difference between Bay and a "true" power hitter is trivial. If there's a difference, it's purely in intangibles and the validity of an intangibles argument almost invariably boils down to how much posters like a certain player rather than a true evluation of things players can control on the field. That's why I was deriding the "scariness factor." Fine. I see the logic here. I just disagree with it. I believe you laud, or blame, a player for things under his control. His league he couldn't control, and it's worth bearing in mind that the Pirates were a non-contender despite his best efforts rather than because of them.

Every player in this sport is streaky to some extent or another. that's how things work in a sport where even the best ballplayers are ess likely to produce in any one plate appearance than they areto not produce. You're not going to get very far in the playoffs if too many of your players are in ebb phase even if you have a lineup full of Gehrigs.

that's fine as far as it goes, except for the little detail that none of it is true except FB% which is not necessarily a good thing (Bay had a career high in popups this year). His HR/FB, and LD were both substantially higher in 2005. And for that matter, Bay's BABIP is below his career average this year. And if you looked up these numbers you probably saw that and chose not to report it. Hmm. since you don't think that, why on earth would you appeal to his authority on a subject like this?

I'm not buying. Bay is a legitimate 30+ HR threat in his own right, if pitchers aren't taking him seriously when he comes up to the plate it's because they're stupid. You're using tito's lineup construction to back up an argument? You?

Honest question: If Bay is not a true #4 hitter, why is Howard? I consider Beltran a "true" #3 hitter. Both his OBP and his speed component make him a better fit for that slot than as opposed to a "true" #4. I think Josh Hamilton needs to have another great year before he's a "true" #4. He really wasn't one this year. The Rangers really smarted from his regression, too. Delgado is a walking dionsaur. I don't think anyone, the Mets included, is really counting on him to continue at 2008 levels much longer. That pretty much leaves Fielder and Gonzalez as definites, Aramis Ramirez as a probable, Derek Lee as a good career guy with a nice year last year, and Sandoval who's got a great chance but is a rookie..

Not too many good ones. I think the best one left if Bay and Holliday both go is Hideki Matsui. Try as I might I just can't quite picture that. You can be sick of them being there all you want to. It doesn't make them any less there. The Yankees are a reality of baseball. dealing with them and taking them seriously is something we have to do. And recognizing that no matter how much money we have to throw at a player, they have about half again as much? Also something you need to get used to. Building the best team sometimes involves playing it safe when the downside is real enough and significant enough. In this case, I think you can make that argument.

Then you lose nothing from going hard after the guy anyway, because the worst case scenario is the spot you wanted to start from.

I would be very surprised if any of Fielder, Hernandez or Gonzalez were made available by their teams. Our trade pieces aren't the strongest in the league right now either, especially if the Mariners, Brewers or Padres want position players (and two out of the three are DESPERATE for position player talent) Also playing corner-infielder-go-round doesn't address our biggest problems. A slugging 1B would be nice, but we have other serious holes that urgently need attention first, holes that are not easy at all to fill through free agency. Especially the hole at SS, but Catcher is going to need some attention, if only to sort out the players from the hopefuls on our own roster.

I dunno. what it comes down to for me is that everything that could possibly go wrong this season seems to have found a way to do it and I didn't see a good reason why the postseason should be different. That and we're probably the third best American League team in the playoffs and there's no particular reason to suggest we're underperforming. We're losing this series to the better team, both on paper and in practice. That's never a happy place to be.

Mike Lowell did. If you have to offer Jason Bay a competitive deal to solidify left field and make it a nonproblem, then do it. Bay is a good enough hitter and LFer to keep a hold of.

I don't buy it. Upper level pitching dominates everyone. That's why it's upper level pitching.

This situation is by no means equivalent. To make room for Teixeira we would have had to make some subsequent moves (most likely, jettisoning Lowell). The position was already covered, we were looking for an upgrade from a strong fallback position. With Holliday, the only way to get in on him is to let Bay walk. If the Yankees sign Bay and a wildcard third team (say the Tigers and their LF platoon) sign Holliday, we're screwed. Our fallback option in that situation is either Baldelli, Reddick, or a trade for an average corner outfielder. Not pleasant to contemplate by any means.