Dojji

It will take at least a month before I would expect a Tim Thomas slump to even start affecting the usage patterns. Not because Julien is stupid or slow to respond to new situations but simply because that's how long it ought to take to establish that there really is a problem as opposed to a fluke or a bad run.

yeah, blew up in our faces to the tune of our 6th playoffs in the last 7 years despite the degradation of several other key pieces. Frankly, in that environment, I'd be inclined not to trade Adrian Gonzalez at all, especially if he seemed interested in re-signing in San Diego. He's young. There's time. And there's money too, since they've just traded Peavy away. They can make Adrian happy right where he is if he decides to let them. What's more, there's a club option guaranteeing the Pads have one more year to make any decisions. If it falls out that they can't resign him after the following year, the return would still be justifiably large and they''d have had one more year to try and either win, extend him, or at least regenerate the farm through other means. Since Felix Hernandez is in a similar place contract wise, I doubt even Buchholz will tempt Felix out of Seattle either. For the same reason he'd be considered a "F'n Huge Upgrade" over on this side of the hills

Saltalamacchia wasn't as well established as Buchholz is now. IMHO the Sox are not going to trade clay Buchholz at all at this point.

Not as huge as having both pitchers would be. there's no indication at this point that the Sox brass would seriously contemplate moving Buchholz anywhere.

I could definitely learn to live with him in the rotation, but I don't think dealing for HWSNBN is the most cost effective way to get where we need to go. Not to mention, you're taking a starter out of the rotation in the deal which diminishes your actual gains. If you want a fifth "top starter" I'd rather sign John Lackey. that way we keep Buchholz and also gain a good pitcher. Win win.

I'd be OK with not moving Buchholz for any reason at all. Our rotation is already an asset. there are plenty of ways to upgrade it far more inexpensively than blowing down the Mariners for HWSNBN

That's fair. I suppose that's true. I don't really fear that the Sox can perform in an elimination game, but I just feel like I don't want to get my hopes up or ask for too much. I felt much the same way in 2007 and 2008.

They just changed leadership at San Diego. Maybe there's some hope there.

I can't disagree with this kind of thinking. Especially with the extreme unlikelihood Pulols makes FA without being bowled over by his current team and the decent chance Mauer doesn't either. I think there's a decent shot that we keep Beckett if he has a good year next year. Inconsistent he might be, but at his worst Beckett is still a solid pitcher with a lot to recommend him (even in 2006, he was at least a 15 game winner) We are definitely entering a transitional phase, and our farm system's apparent inability to develop a true franchise power hitter is becoming a problem. if Anderson and Reddick can't become big league ready next year we're in a certain amount of trouble and may need to wind up overpaying for someone else's big league power hitter. That puts us even more behind the 8-ball than we already are in the divisional race.

Alright, I'll back off on Gonzalez. I'm not really very committed to the argument in the first place. I'm basically trying to figure out where to draw the boundaries you're talking about.

My point is simple. This is a guy who takes a lot of walks and strikes out about once every 6 at bats. Them pitching around him isn't really a good excuse. A guy like Adrian would be pitched around in a decent lineup as well. Your definition of a true #4 hitter does let Adrian out.

I like the idea, but our odds of actually getting both when other teams are also campaigning for the services of premium left fielders is not high. Let's not pretend we're the only horse in the race. that's just a way to set us up for disappointment. If we play the field looking for both, there's a significant chance we could wind up with neither, especially if NYY lets both Matsui and Damon go and looks to fill their own left field position from free agency. Also the Mets and Tigers are obvious places that might go after a power-hitting LF, the Mariners are in play for either an LF or a DH or both, the Cardinals are going to go after a LF to replace Holliday, and that's just obvious places.

That's something a lot of the guys you're looking for have in common. Even in good lineups, they're probably the guy other managers talk to their pitchers and say "don't let this guy beat you."

That lets Adrian Gonzalez out. The power is for real, but the guy walks a ton, and not just IBB's, and strikes out about once in 6 AB's. In fact I think the only guys left are Pablo Sandova and Prince Fielder.

That lets Youks out doesn't it? Granted he's gotten more aggressive in recent years, but he also strikes out more than a little.

That does make it an interesting question doesn't it? What is a "vulnerable" hitter and how big a problem is that compared to overall talent level?

Check out our record against Western teams. 13-21. Not pretty at all. I can't find our record on the road against Western teams, but I imagine it's driving this number. I don't want to say this was a foregone conclusion, but I was definitely hoping not to have to play the Angels this year.

Since you asked: Beltran is in the same boat as Bay. Probably a better fit for the 3 hole. In fact, other than his 2006 performance Beltran has less overall power than Bay, though he makes up for it in other ways and truth told I'd probably swap Bay for Beltran in a heartbeat. Delgado surely was a true #4 hitter when he was in his prime, and he's still quite a solid power hitter, but he's too old to count on as your big franchise thumper and injuries are starting to really catch up to him. Better than Bay, no question. Bay is better than Ramirez, if only slightly. Certainly he's more consistent year by year. Aramis gets points back for playing a more premium position of course. Other than Lee's career year in 2005 I'd say he and Bay are also equivalent players, although I might be underrating those two players and their doubles production. Again, even if he beats Bay in overall talent, Bay makes some points back for consistency. Had a wretched year in 2009 and seems to have gone back to the mistakes that were destroying his talent earlier in his career, Last year I would have agreed with you but now I'm withholding judgement. Dynamite young rookie power hitter off to a great start to a career that we should bear in mind has only started. Not presently better than Bay but a very high probability of becoming so in the very near future. Take his .350+ BABIP under advisement.

I'm not sure I agree about "more OBP than power." I think you're overstating Bay's weaknesses and ignoring his track record as a power hitter. He typically slugs in the low to mid .500's and will hit about 60-70 XBH's in his own right. Of the guys you listed as true #4 hitters, he's about a match for Aramis Ramirez and can trade strengths for weaknesses against Howard. The only ones that are definitely out of his league are Fielder and Gonzalez IMHO.

With his high OBP? Sure, I'll buy that, but he certainly is enough of a power hitter to function strongly in the 4 hole.

What's to prove? He's a high level power hitter who's been very consistent year by year and hits 30-35 HR's while maintaining a very high OBP. I don't think too many teams in this league would blink at batting him fourth. In fact it takes a top offense to bat him anywhere else (except maybe third).