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TheKilo: Crisp has better range. No doubt So we're talking about a difference of .016 batting average points. I don't need to have you tell me how insignificant that number is. -That difference represents Turner field to the Jake. The difference between Fenway and Turner is much more pronounced and should be accounted for in Fenway's projections. Since Jones had a dreadful year for average last year its probably more fair to take into consideration his avg for the period of time that Coco has been in Boston. Coco's averagefor the past two years is .266 which is 88% of the average righty in the park. Jones has an average that is 89% of the average righty at his park .242. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see that that is roughly where Coco is now but Jones has scored more runs over those two years and has driven in considerably more runs I won't argue this point too much, but then again it has huge potential to be WMP part deux, only it costs us over $10 million per. -It is possible but WMP also had awful defense which further limited his worth Disagree. If you think Jones is signing for anything less than twice what Crisp makes you're insane. -Twice than what Crisp makes actually qualifies as a bargain based on Jones history Is Jones twice the offensive player Crisp is? Heck, he'd have to be more than that because Crisp is the superior defensive CF, one who's mastered Fenway. -Superior by an extremely marginal amount - a .998 fielding percentage for Crisp and .995 for Jones. Between Jones at $10 mil+ and Crisp at $5, I'll take Crisp at 5. -The Sox wouldn't just waive Crisp. You would assume that he would be traded for Prospect X or Prospects X and Y. So that may be closer to worth it What this also isn't taking into account in this comparison is that if you put Jones behind Manny it will affect how pitchers pitch to Manny. Crisp value is mainly his defense and he isn't making anyone else in the lineup better for his presence. Lastly I want to join your fantasy league because I've got a couple of deals for you.

Only problem with that is the Twins would be getting a 23 year old #3 starter in our deal too - Lester plus Masterson. I'm not arguing that this offer isn't a strong offer. I just don't think that its stronger than the Sox. Tabata's age works both ways - he could develop into a power hitter in 5 years but I don't think the Twins want to wait that long for a return and that's assuming that that trait does develop. Lowrie's risk at this point is less than Tabata's and Lowrie does have double digit home run potential albeit not in the high twenties or thirties.

The Red Sox don't own a crystal ball. I wouldn't hitch my argument to the fact that the Sox know what they have. I think its a no-brainer to want to trade Crisp before Ellsbury but I don't think it should be a deal breaker. Craig Hansen was once on the untouchable list too.

My comparison is Crisp and Jones. Both have basically the same career OBP although Jones has a larger sample size. Jones has the better arm from center. They have basically the same career average but Jones gets more bases through walks. They both have about the same career average but both Fenway and the Jake (.300 and .284 respectively) are better parks for righties than Turner Field (.269). Strikeouts are a concern Jones strikes out once more every three games than Crisp but Jones also has 30-40 homerun potential and slots in our 5 spot nicely. Jones is coming off a down year and Boras is having an off-season from hell. He can't afford to boast another big money contract that doesn't pan out. This offseason, Jones could turn out to be a bargain. That being said I don't think it happens because I think the Sox keep Ellsbury and if they decide to move him for Santana I think they wind up playing Crisp. But Jones would be my preferred number 2 over Crisp if only because Jones is a solid 5 or 6 in this line up and Crisp is at 8 or 9 when Jones gives you very little if any drop off in the field.

I'd take Jones for 3 years at 15 because he could rebound and be another 30 homer guy. I'd love to see Beddard but I agree he will cost what Santana costs and I don't think he gets dealt within the division. The last thing the Orioles want is for their ace to beat them 3 or 4 times a year and the last thing the Sox want to see is their top prospects blossom in Camden Yards

I've already said that I find it hard to give credit to what Gammons says but here are the scouting reports on Tabata and Kennedy: 2. Ian Kennedy, RHP DOB: 12/19/84 Height/Weight: 6-0/190 Bats/Throws: R/R Drafted: 1st round, 2006, University of Southern California 2007 Stats: 1.29 ERA at High-A (63-39-22-72); 2.59 at Double-A (48.2-27-17-57); 2.08 ERA at Triple-A (34.2-25-11-34); 1.89 ERA at MLB (19-13-9-15) Year In Review: Followed the Joba development plan by opening the year in the Florida State League, dominating at every level, and finishing the season in pinstripes. The Good: Kennedy’s best pitch is a plus-plus changeup that features arm-side deception and late, heavy drop. It worked as an out pitch at every level, including the majors. He sets it up with a fastball that has average velocity at 88-91 mph, but grades up a level because of Kennedy’s ability to locate it at will. His curveball is average and effective when he mixes it in. The Bad: The only real knock against Kennedy is his ceiling. He doesn’t have front-end starter's stuff, and projects as no more than a third starter, but the good news is that he’s already there. He’s a bit on the smallish side, and his fastball can get a bit straight at times. Fun Fact: In the third inning of minor league games, Kennedy allowed just one run in 25 frames. Perfect World Projection: Kennedy is what he is, but he’s a solid big league starter right now, giving the Yankees a return on their draft investment in barely more than a year. Timetable: Kennedy has a shot at earning a rotation job in spring training, but any number of potential deals and/or free agent signings could force him to return to Triple-A to begin 2008. and Tabata: 4. Jose Tabata, OF DOB: 8/12/88 Height/Weight: 5-11/160 Bats/Throws: R/R Acquired: NDFA, 2005, Venezuela 2007 Stats: .307/.371/.392 at High-A (103 G) Year In Review: The top-notch hitting prospect more than held his own at High-A as an 18-year-old before his season ended prematurely due to hamate bone surgery. The Good: Tabata is a gifted hitter with outstanding bat speed and hand-eye coordination, showing the ability to hit any pitch, anywhere, from both lefties and righties. He’s an average runner and a good right fielder with the arm strength for the position. He plays under control and with a confidence far beyond his years. The Bad: While Tabata’s hand problems were a year-long issue and mitigating factor, scouts are beginning to question his power ceiling. He’s not especially big, and his swing is on a level plane-–so while the ball flies off his bat, it’s not overly loaded with loft or backspin. If he doesn’t develop power, he doesn’t really match the profile normally associated with the position. He could also use a more patient approach. Fun Fact: When playing right field, Tabata hit .335, but when playing designated hitter only, Tabata hit just .169 in 71 at-bats. Perfect World Projection: Most are convinced that Tabata will hit .300+ in the majors. It’s the development of his secondary skills that will define whether or not he ends up as an impact player. Timetable: Tabata is expected to be healthy for spring training, and once again, he’ll be extremely young for his level, playing in Double-A as a nineteen year old. Masterson is a notch below great - would you say that would qualify as a big league starter ie Kennedy? And Tabata has below average power that needs to define his secondary skills to be an impact player? Much like a starting shortstop with great plate discipline? Hmmm. From the reports that you quote, Lowrie may project better than Tabata. Masterson and Kennedy look like the same player then the Yanks throw in Cabrera and the Sox give Lester and Crisp. Your argument has actually convinced me that I was wrong. These offers aren't comparable. The Sox have the better deal on the table.

Can we all agree that we have no idea what's going on? In one corner you have the reporters who are saying that the Red Sox are ahead then there's some that don't cite the deal but say the Yanks will get him. Some that say that the Sox aren't willing to part with Ellsbury or Buchholz and some that say that they'd part with either. Some that say that the Yankees won't include Hughes or Cano some that say that the Yanks are willing to add them. This isn't a typical for these types of talks - most of the time the majority of reports you get on any particular deal coincide with some minor pieces being off - ie what we have with Charley Walters (Waters?) and Buster Olney. For what its worth the two sources that have recently stated that they believe the Yanks will get him I don't necessarily trust. John Heyman gives me an impression more as a columnist than a reporter - and no I don't have anything to back it its just my impression - and although I love and respect Peter Gammons its hard to put weight in an article that says that if the Sox deal Santana that they then would be forced to redo Becketts deal. Baseball is a different entity than the NFL where that may be the case but I don't remember the last time a big league club renegotiated a contract for a second time in three years with three years remaining. It just doesn't happen. . Like I said before, Santana's deal will factor into negotiations regardless of where he plays. The one thing that people aren't mentioning is the depth of the Sox system. If you hold onto all of your prospects - you're not going to have anywhere to play them all. This is a list of the Sox prospects that have a legit chance of making it with the major league club within the next 5 years. I've considered Drew locked because his contract isn't easily moveable. Lugo's would be if the Sox eat a portion. IF - Pedroia and Youkilis locked at 2nd and 1st Will Middlebrooks, Jed Lowrie, Lars Anderson, Oscar Tejeda, Ryan Dent OF - Ellsbury, Drew locked at center and right Kade Koewen, Josh Reddick, Jason Place, Che Hsuan Lin, Ryan Kalish SP - Beckett, Dice-K, Buchholz, Lester Bowden, Masterson, Hagadone, Kris Johnson Thats fourteen prospects that could make an impact over the next 5 years for 3 open spots. Now prospects are prospects for a reason they may fizzle out like a Daniel Bard but even if you consider Ellsbury a lock as a future all star sacrificing that one lock for the best pitcher in baseball is a smart move because out of the ten other position guys the chances that one or two of them develop into a player like Ellsbury (or even better) would be good.

Can't argue with the list. Here's to hoping that you're right ... if the Yanks get him.

I've heard this alot on EEI. Jake Peavy is not a free agent after this season. There's a team option involved. Same for Lackey not that I'd want him pitching at Fenway anyway and what are you willing to pay those guys because you know that the Yanks will be involved on all of the front line starters. Are you willing to pay Peavy or Sabathia, 25 million or 30 million per because the Yanks are involved? Yes, Santana can name his price but he is probably the only player in the league who can and have the contract be worth it but dealing for him and then being able to keep the Yankees out of the process is worth Ellsbury right now.

A few things - how are the Yankee's prospects more certain than the Sox? With Ellsbury, I was actually arguing for him to be included in the deal and not excluded because he's can't miss? I also mentioned that the pitchers could be 2's - not will be - I didn't say that they're projected as such. And lastly the offer I had on the table was Hughes, Horne and Cabrera not the offer you had on the table and I think you're giving more credit to Kennedy than he deserves. As far as that deal that you've proposed I think its fairly comparable depending on what the Twins are looking for. But Masterson could project to the rotation or as a reliever and assuming that Nathan isn't going to be there long term he could be used to setup Neshek. Again, it depends on what the Twins value. The Sox offer has four prospects all of whom could contribute next year. The Yanks offer that you are proposing has two players that can contribute next year and two more that are years away. There's an immense risk with any deal for prospects but if in fact the Twins want to have a chance to compete next year without Santana leading into the new stadium then the Sox offer satisfies that need more than your proposed offer from the Yanks. If the Yanks include two of the three pitchers or bend on Cano then they will have the best deal but the offer you presented is actually comparable - and apparently the Twins agree if we supposedly have the best offer.

Also worth mentioning but don't you think MLB sort of would like to see Santana on the Sox for their trip to Japan. The best starter in America paired with Japan's favorite son? Not that I think that will influence anything. Also, I think that if the deal goes through with the Sox. The Yanks follow up with a splash. I'd think that Hughes / Cabrera / Horne gets them Peavy or Haren. Its going to come down to the wire though. You have to think that Twins really want Cano the same way they want Ellsbury. I'll also say this much - I'd love to see Santana in Boston but if he's not going to be in Boston and goes to NY the rivalry will be kicked back up to the same level it was in '03 and '04 and the last week of the season next year will be very interesting.

Ellsbury doesn't project to hit for the same power that Hanley does and that is a big factor in comparing the two and I remember there was alot of questions about dealing Ramirez. The question is would you do the same thing over? I would because we have a second ring to show for it. Including Ellsbury in a deal for Santana is doing that deal over again and we have a kid like Kalish who if he lives up to his potential (big if understandably) is actually that Hanley Ramirez type

I agree with Kilo here. I don't think there is a comparison here and I fear this may be a case of the last memory you have a player affecting the perception of his career. In Mussina's age 28 year he was 19-11 with a mediocre mid 4 era in the twelve seasons (incl that year) he has had 7 -15 win or better seasons and 7 seasons with a mid to high - 3 era. I'd give up today's Jacoby Ellsbury for Mussina in his prime. If you believe that Santana is prone to the same decline than that decline probably won't be happening until after this next deal for Santana (even if it is for 7 years). My personal opinion is if the Twins are willing to accept a deal that includes Ellsbury and Lester, we should take it. Mediocre starters on the market are making 11-13 million per and its easy to back yourself into a bad deal. A trade for Santana without Buchholz ultimately saves you from entering that market for the next three years and not to minimize Ellsbury's contributions in the WS but we made it to the dance with Crisp for 90% of the year and we have a bunch of options from free agents to in house candidates that may not be 100% of what he is but that could be 80%.

As a Sox fan I disagree, alot of the issues with NY have to do with Steinbrenner. For every Roger Clemens there's a JD Drew, for every Kei Igawa there's a Matt Clement. For every Jarrett Wright there's an Edgar Renteria. The biggest issue with the Yankees now is all of the bloated deals that were given out years ago that are un-moveable. As far as Santana goes, I tend to agree with Lugo that if the Dodgers want in Kemp, Kershaw and Loney are better than anything that the Sox or Yanks can offer but the Dodgers typically don't get involved in these things and they still need a bat so I think Cabrera is their biggest priority. Its early yet and within 5 minutes of each other I read one piece that said that Cashman is more hesitant than Epstein to give up his pitching prospects and another that said the reverse. One thing that I keep on going over in my mind is back in 2005 when the Rangers were supposedly the frontrunners to get Beckett from the Marlins and the deal actually wound up being made with the Sox for untouchable uber-prospect Hanley Ramirez. I would prefer the Sox to work around Buchholz and Ellsbury but if they had to give up one of the two I think they're going with including Ellsbury. The talk about the financial commitment that will come along with the trade isn't going to impact the Sox because their rotation is filled out with pitchers on below market deals. Today if you remove Lester and add Santana to the rotation the total payroll on starters would be $50 million and considering that you have two legit cy young contenders and a third who could be thats a steal. Assuming that you're paying Santana 25 million in three years when Beckett hits the market and you sign him to the same type deal you're still only talking about $60-$65 million if Schill and Wake's spots are taken by kids.

The Red Sox and Yankees have similar talent in regards to MLB ready young talent. Chamberlain is the Yanks equivalent of Papelbon in different roles and both are untouchable. Hughes and Buchholz are similar as are Lester and Kennedy. Both teams could pull the trigger on a Santana deal today if they were willing to part with some of that top end talent. I think the advantage the Red Sox have is the depth that they have in the second tier of players which does factor in when the Twins trade players and if the Sox include two, three, or four of those players that in turn would force the Yanks to include two of Hughes, Cano or Cabrera in the deal along with Kennedy especially given their greater need for a front line starter. The wild card of course is what Buster Olney wrote that both of these teams can afford him once he hits free agency.

It's easy to look at the Red Sox after each season, World Series trophy or not, and praise or criticize them based solely on how the team is set up to compete the following year; however, if you take a step back, it is amazing the job that Theo and the ownership group has done at building the foundation for a perennial competitor. Consider this - after the 2004 season, the Red Sox had to immediately make decisions on four key contributors to the title run. In the next four offseasons (including this current offseason), they will have key decisions to make on 9, which may seem like a lot but the fact that is the exact number of different players the Sox have had playing at short and 2nd alone in the same time span from 04-07, gives that number more perspective. Also, consider that 3 of the 9 decisions pertain to team options and I'm not including Ramirez's options after 08/09 or Beckett's 09 option because the team will have to make a decision on them after 2010. Add to it that there are only two decisions that will need to be made on players in their prime, which has to give leverage to the Sox and you have what looks like the makings of a Yankee's-like dynasty. Everyone basically knows what the 2008 Red Sox will look like and their only two free agents of note are Ramirez and Varitek. In light of Torii Hunter's deal with LAA, Manny's 20 looks like a steal and I'd put money on the Sox exercising it. The only other power option on the market would be Adam Dunn and he would require a commitment that limits their options in the future. I see Boston resigning Tek for 2 years and around 28 million. I also think they get Santana for Lester, Crisp, Masterson, Oscar Tejeda and Aaron Bates. The following are my projections for what the Red Sox will be looking at in 2009, 2010 and 2011, taking into consideration prospects, age of free agents, and the way the market will probably shape up. I have used soxprospects.com and Baseball America for my information on the prospects and MLB4U.com for the information on the contracts/markets. Red Sox in 2009 Batting Order: Ellsbury - Pedroia - Ortiz - Ramirez - Drew - Youkilis - Lowell - Varitek - Jed Lowrie Rotation: Santana - Beckett - Matsuzaka - Buchholz - Michael Bowden Bullpen: Papelbon - Okajima - Delcarmen - Snyder - Juan Rincon - Lopez Offseason: The Red Sox don't resign Manny to another deal for the twilight of his career. Kyle Snyder is a free agent that walks. Josh Beckett's option is exercised and/or he is signed to an extension Red Sox in 2010 Batting Order: Ellsbury - Pedroia - Matt Holiday - Ortiz - Drew - Youkilis - Lowrie - Lowell - Varitek Rotation: Same as '09 Bullpen: Same as '09, except for the subtraction of Snyder, he will be replaced Daniel Bard. Offseason: David Ortiz' option is exercised. Beckett and Youkilis are signed to long term deals Javy Lopez walks. Mike Lowell walks Jason Varitek retires Red Sox in 2011 Batting Order: Ellsbury - Pedroia - Holiday - Ortiz - Victor Martinez - Drew - Youkilis - Will Middlebrooks - Lowrie Rotation: Same as '10 Bullpen: Same as '10 except for the subtraction of Lopez, he will be replaced by Nick Hagadone. Okay so why spend this much time and take up this much space to fast forward to 2011? Because I think it helps in the appreciation of what Theo has been doing and if you look at the big picture and see what's out there for the Sox its impressive. Consider that in the three seasons I outlined there are were only three free agent signings and one trade. In any given year, I only see one possibly two weak spots in the order. And if I were a betting man I'd place that payroll in 2011 around 160 million which is relatively the same amount of growth that the team has had since 2004 for a lineup that could feature all nine hitters batting around .300 and four out of the five pitchers in the rotation with 20 win Cy Young potential AND that my projection didn't factor in Josh Reddick, Ryan Kalish, or Lars Anderson three Sox prospects with high ceilings. With that being said, you have to believe that so long as the kids live up to their potential (and yes that's a big if) we'll have something special here for quite awhile.

I agree teams don't want to move top prospects but that will affect the Marlins and Miggy as a position player more than the Twins dangling the best pitcher in baseball. But its more to do with what the Twins want and are willing to do than what the teams are offering. Here's my example: Twins want major league ready players that are relatively cheap and have an emphasis on position players over pitchers because they're happy with their rotation. Yankees offer Hughes, Cabrera and Cano Red Sox offer Lester, Lowrie, Youkilis, Masterson, and Crisp Hughes has less service time than Lester and a higher ceiling. Cabrera is cheaper and younger than Crisp although Crisp is much better defensively. Cano and Youkilis are equivalents however Cano is younger and Youkilis is arbitration eligible this offseason and has only three years until he hits free agency. That plus you're also going to be giving Morneau a considerable raise because he too is arbitration eligible. Masterson is a good add in and who knows could be the Liriano deal Considering these two offers - I feel that the what the Yankees have to offer is better in this case but admittedly I don't see the Yanks including Cano and I don't see the Sox including Youkilis. There's a chance that the Yanks won't give up one of Chamberlain or Hughes and in that case a deal similar to the one that was proposed may get it done but I don't think it would ever be offered. I think the Angels are positioning themselves to be in a better position for a Miggy trade and I think the Dodgers are waiting to pull the trigger to see if Santana is put on the block. If you have Santana, you'd already have three young players with ace potential (Beckett, Santana, and Matsuzaka) and this is another spot where I agree with you - even if the Yanks deal for Santana they would still need the young pitchers to compete so it would be trading 6 of one for a half dozen of the other. At the end of the day though, if he's dealt, I think Santana plays in Boston for Buchholz, Crisp, and Lester/or Lowrie and Tejeda

I haven't seen him but most people tend to think that he'll be up with probably Masterson and Buchholz mid-season. Depending on how he does, he is probably the Sox starting shortstop in 09.

Ellsbury Pedroia Ortiz Ramirez Lowell Drew Youkilis Tek Lugo If the Sox played Ellsbury in the leadoff spot during the World Series, they will have the confidence in him to lead off during the regular season. If Lugo rebounds you get the back to back leadoff hitter thing. You also have a tough lineup for most pitchers 1-7

Kevin Youkilis isn't going to be moved. He is the poster boy for plate discipline which is high on the Sox priority list. From the Yanks they wanted Cabrera, Chamberlain or Hughes and Robinson Cano. So I'm thinking something Lester/Buccholz - Pedroia - Ellsbury which I'm not certain of I'd deal either Ellsbury or Buchholz but not both and preferably Buchholz over Ellsbury but I'm wondering if a Buchholz, Crisp, Pedroia, Oscar Tejeda deal would do it. Bowden, Hagadone, and Masterson are in the pipeline and should be in the show within the next two years and by adding Santana there's only one free spot in the rotation so it would be hard to be a disappointment as the 5th guy in the rotation. Lowrie appears to be a Youkilis clone and can replace Pedroia so the damage isn't great. Tejeda seems like the type of player that the Twins would be after.

I personally don't think the Sox are going to trade anyone other than Coco this offseason and I think that has alot to do with Dice-K and his potential. If Dice-K develops like Beckett, than their rotation is considerably more formidable and Santana may win you 20 games this year but Buchholz/Lester are probably going to win you 20-30 and the Twins are asking for position players if you also take into consideration the fact that the type of package that the Twins are asking for (rightfully) is not a Josh Beckett package with one player that is the centerpiece they're asking for two or three major league ready players who are key contributors - so whatever benefit you gain by giving the ball to Santana every fifth day will be offset by the decreased production in the lineup the other 4 or 5 games a week so its a lot harder to pull the trigger but that being said I think you're looking at Ellsbury / Lester / +1 for Santana which I would probably do because Santana-Beckett-Dice-K-Buccholz would be impossible and Ryan Kalish is in the pipeline and projects similarly to Ellsbury. I think Haren could be had for Lester / Crisp / Lowrie / Masterson which I also make. But I think the Sox are going to play it safe and hit the market next year if need be.