cam780

This is the exciting part. Unfortunately basically everything had to happen on the day I returned to work after a two week vacation but this deal sounds strong to me. Its not the knockdown sure fire win for the Sox when you include Kalish. Whenever you deal with prospects, you're dealing with potential but Lester is probably a strong 2 or 3 potentially as soon as this year. Crisp is an average center fielder that is cheap and has some rebound potential and again will hold the fort for Kalish who has legit star potential and could have a better career than Ellsbury. If Pridie is ready next year, they can then move Crisp because he's still good and cheap for another need. Lowrie could be a strong second basemen and contribute next year. Masterson could also contribute next year. Meanwhile the Sox give up a portion of their future but they fall far short of selling the farm - Crisp has to go if Ellsbury stays, Lester is replaced by Santana, Kalish could've been your right fielder once Drew moves on but you have Reddick, Lin and Place who could develop and fill that need. Lowrie was blocked by Pedroia and Lugo with Middlebrooks, Dent, and Tejeda in the pipeline. Masterson is in but then you have Bowden, and Hagadone as possiblities at the back end of the rotation. I may be overvaluing the Sox prospects but I would think at this point even if the Yanks came back with Kennedy this offer is stronger. Lastly, don't you get the sense that Hank's bravado probably cost him on this one? Its one thing not giving up the farm but his brashness and stuborness have seemingly put him at odds with the team that has the guy that he really wants that he had a better than average chance to get since the only other team that could legitmately compete was the Sox? Haren isn't coming any cheaper and with his price tag there will be alot more teams at the table.

Among comparables I'd give the edge to the pitcher Meche and Ortiz wouldn't be comparables but you got it right in the end

Its not so bad if you use for what it is and don't take it as gospel. I've included the link to the ESPN post on this one. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=winter_meetings

Mlbtraderumors has a report from ESPN that the Sox are talking to the Rox about Fuentes. The name mentioned is Lowrie so I would have to think that this would be pending the Santana deal if its true.

Tough to say. Pitching is usually more highly regarded so I'll Hughes on this one but caveat is a starting pitcher has the ability to affect the outcome of 30 games. A starting CF has the ability to affect the outcome of 150. I'll take the pitcher everyday of the week though but in the context of the Santana deal I think the Twins may lean toward Ellsbury if only because he addresses a more pressing need for them as their top 6 prospects are pitchers and Hughes has an injury history.

NY's front office is already a laughing stock from A-Rod but they're in a definate pissing match which isn't good since the other team has the guy you want. I'm thinking he's pretty confident that the Twins feel that they have the best offer which who knows they might but I tend to believe that Sox genuinely want Santana because they know what having him will do for this rotation and that being said even if today comes and goes and Santana is still on the Twins, then I think it will be the same offer required because the Twins know that this is as much about keeping this guy away from the Yanks as it is bettering their own staff and its not like the Twins can't afford him this year there are worse alternatives and over the course of the next year they may just be able to talk Santana into staying (long shot admittedly) especially if they turn around and compete. Almost missed this - kinda sad that the #1 thread belongs to Mark Bellhorn though.

I agree with you on this one. To me its Santana or keep your prospects. The 6th, 7th or 8th best pitcher in the league doesn't cement your rotation like the best pitcher does and I'd argue that Buchholz and Lester have a better chance at being in that crowd than being the best in the game. The one point I'd mention is that the $$ would be worth it because Beckett himself is worth twice what he makes.

I think this is what you call posture-gate. The Yanks don't have a deadline. The Sox aren't going to turn to Haren or Bedard. The Twins aren't going to keep Santana. I would like to think that the dispute between the Twins and Yanks may give us a slight edge but its doubtful. I'm getting a little bit tired of the waiting game but I think this is one of those crucial points in the AL East just like the fall of '03 was the Yanks got A-Rod and the Sox got Schilling who tipped the balance to just about even and then set the foundation for the 2007 WS. This is that moment all over again - it is the difference between competing for championships year in and year out or dominating the league year in and year out because even despite the WS this rotation which most everyone thinks is flawless still has plenty of question marks - Beckett and his blisters - this year it cost him two starts what if it shows up at the end of the year? Dice-K - is he going to be dominant or he is going to be another Irabu - Can Buchholz hold up - Next year you have two forty-year olds in your rotation and after that you're basically counting on rookies. Add to it that even if the Yanks get Santana, they will still be in on the front line starters year in and year out - its their MO. I think it needs to get done throw in Lester with Lowrie and you have the deal that beats the Yankees.

I actually had this discussion with Kilo some pages ago. The strikeout rate isn't a considerable difference above Coco although it sounds like it - the difference is between 85 and about 140 but thats over 150 games so it'd be about one more strikeout every three games. I think he'd play great here but I personally don't think the Sox will make that commitment unless its short term or short money. Thats why I think a trade for someone like a Jason Bay or a Pat Burrell might be the direction the club goes. The team has alot of pitching that is going to be available to contribute in the next few years and not enough rotation spots which is one of the reasons why I think they're in on Santana. Beckett. Dice-K are young and signed long term - Lester is under control thats two rotation spots for Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson, and Hagadone probably in the next two years. If you acquire Santana and keep Lester that's four long term spots filled and if you also keep Buchholz thats a rotation thats set and most likely with only using one of Bowden or Masterson which gives you flexibility and at that time the question would become is Jon Lester or Michael Bowden or Justin Masterson more valuable to your team as a fifth starter or as a piece in a deal that would improve another position and I think the latter would be the case especially given the fact that propects don't always live up to potential. So if you can get a Matt Kemp from the Dodgers for the price of a Jon Lester / Coco Crisp / Bowden or Masterson then if I'm the Sox I probably do it. I don't think it happens but I think Lester, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Crisp and Masterson and Bowden for Santana and Kemp would be worth it Kemp would provide an upgrade over Ellsbury, Santana an upgrade over Lester. Lowrie is currently blocked so the only thing that you're given up is two pitchers that you don't need because Hagadone would then slide into that fifth starter role. It would be a dream scenario for me but I know that it is never going to happen but my rather long point is that it almost makes more sense to trade for a replacement outfielder than it would be to get into a 5/75 commitment for Jones.

Technically its worse on lefties but the park is considerably worse than Fenway to hit for average.

I stand corrected as I was looking solely at home team stats. The total stats are greater but the difference is approximately 30 home runs over the course of a year but again as I've said before the difference in the average for right handed hitters is incredible Turner vs. Fenway and I think its moot point anyway because I think we can both agree that #1 - Jones will produce more home runs than Crisp or Ellsbury and probably Crisp and Ellsbury combined, and #2 the Sox will never in a million years sign Jones because of the long term financial commitment with a very cheap, at the least serviceable center fielder already in the fold. Although I do think that they may explore other options at center as well - I'd put them in on Jason Bay, Pat Burrell that type of player that doesn't have a long term commitment and is a strong OBP guy.

Not by much. In 07, righties hit 10 more Hr's at Turner. From 05-06 that difference is just 7.

I disagree to an extent. If the Yanks go after Haren sure it hinders what the Twins can get for him but the option to keep him still exists. One of the benefits of the trade is the exclusive negotiating rights. The Yanks will be involved if he makes it to FA which if you want him may actually cost you more than 6/150.

I don't see a deal with Detroit but if the Sox deal Ellsbury and keep their pitchers I could see a trade for an outfielder. I like to think that I know the Sox prospects but not necessarily other teams. I would think a Lester for Baldelli deal could get done given Baldellis injury history or in the I wish it could happen but it'd probably take Buchholz deal- Matt Kemp. Dodgers could then flip him or package Kershaw for Cabrera.

If Baseball Prospectus is correct, I would assume the Sox offer of Ellsbury, Masterson and I'd assume Lowrie would probably be better than Hughes,Cabrera and anonymous player x. Two major league ready position players and a pitching prospect that could contribute in 08.

I would like to agree but I don't know if Theo will get that chip with Crisp. It may be somebody else - Padres have already said they aren't giving up Headley for Crisp and Blalock is a Boras client in the last year of his deal. I don't know.

I have done an about face on this. I actually feel that the Sox need this trade and I think they feel that they do now. If they were in it just to run up the price they would've already been out of it. There doesn't often come a time where you can get the best pitcher in baseball and relegate your rival to your rear view mirror conceivably for the next 3-5 years. The Yankees will always have a potent offense and next year you can just about pencil them in to sign Teixeira and now at this point with Ellsbury or Crisp in the Boston lineup - their offense is better. We turned the tide on pitching but if they land Santana and keep Joba here is what you're looking at next year: NY - Santana, Wang, Joba, Kennedy, Mussina Bos - Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling, Wakefield, Lester I would give the edge to the Yankees with Santana vs Beckett (I actually believe that the real Josh Beckett falls somewhere between the 06 and 07 versions) the rest of the rotation is almost a virtual tie although if I had to lean to one side I'd probably lean toward the Yankees on all of the other 5 matchups save for possibly Mussina vs Lester. How about 2009? NY- Santana, Sabathia, Wang, Joba, Kennedy BOS - Beckett, Dice-K, Buchholz, Lester, Masterson Even more pronounced - Yanks win Santana, Sabathia and Joba almost hands down at least on paper. Reverse it with the Sox and Santana BOS - Santana, Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling, Wakefield NYY - Haren, Wang, Joba, Kennedy, Mussina Boston on paper wins Santana, Beckett, and Schilling and I'd favor them slightly with Wake over Moose. Joba and Dice-k is a draw that slightly favors the Yanks. 2009 BOS - Santana, Beckett, Dice-K, Buchholz, Bowden NYY - Haren, Sabathia, Wang, Joba, Kennedy I give the Sox Santana and Beckett again and the rest of the rotation would be draws. I assumed that the Sox gave up Masterson, Lester and Ellsbury to me its a no brainer because money isn't an issue to the Yanks so the let them give the guy 150 million thing doesn't work because they give Giambi 20 million a year. They'll still sign every free agent that wants to go there. That plus I think the Yanks are going to make a deal this offseason - why not force them to deal their prospects for the 8th or 9th best pitcher in baseball as opposed to the best pitcher? And lastly Theo tends to work level-headed but if the Yanks get Santana and the Sox don't make the playoff's or if the Yanks win the WS. This front office will be apt to make a bone headed move like trading three guys for Doug Mirabelli. I don't know. If the hang up is Ellsbury than give him up. Pitching wins championships.

Baseball Prospectus put up the following: There’s nothing wrong with building a trade package around Philip Hughes or Jon Lester, and having the next-best player be someone such as Melky Cabrera or Jed Lowrie. The problem is that it’s just not what the Twins need. If the Twins are going to trade the best pitcher in baseball, or more accurately, one year of his work and exclusive negotiating rights, they have to make their team demonstrably better in the medium term. That means acquiring two hitters who will step into their lineup and upgrade their offense, and who will be capable of being among the best players on contending teams in the new ballpark. Trading Garza for Young was a step in the right direction, it’s just not the last step. The Twins still have staggering amounts of pitching depth, and nothing remotely comparable on the hitting side. This is why I don’t think the Yankees, short of putting Joba Chamberlain into the deal and also trading two of the usual suspects with him, have a chance. The best hitter the Yankees can trade is Melky Cabrera, although you might argue that Austin Jackson is better. Jackson is two years away from the majors, of course, and harder to project. The Red Sox would be a stronger contender if they wanted to include Jacoby Ellsbury, but that seems highly unlikely. No, the teams the Twins should be looking to trade with are the ones with major league-ready hitters who not only are good now, but who have star potential. The Mets might have fit the bill, with outfield prospect Lastings Milledge ready to play right now, another in Fernando Martinez who’s among the 25 best prospects in the game, and some pitching depth with which to play. [Ed. Note: The story on Milledge to the Nats broke just minutes ago.] The Dodgers are an even better fit, loaded with hitters (Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, James Loney, Ching-Lung Hu), prone to trading them away and dying to make a big move. The Angels would be interesting if they were to include Howie Kendrick, but that seems unlikely. The bloom is off players such as Brandon Wood and Jeff Mathis.

I honestly don't think that that Yankees deal gets it done. I'd think something along the lines of Kennedy / Cabrera / Cano / Tabata would seal it. If I'm in control of the Sox, I get Santana or I don't go after anyone. Right now the Red Sox are ready to compete the only reason you give up your prospects for pitching is if its literally for the best pitcher in baseball.

I did a huh what when I heard this. Even with diminished value you'd think he might've been able to at least bring back a chip they could've used to deal for Santana or Haren.

The most important part of Charley Waters piece is actually what he is overlooking - the Yankee's don't have the type of prospects that would be able to contribute in 2008. That would change if they add Cano and/or Hughes but his deal most likely isn't getting done.

I just heard that the Yank's are resigning A-Rod too. I wonder if this means we're going to press harder to resign Lowell?