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Congrats, who would've thought that post #1000 in the Johan Santana thread would contain a reference to A Brave New World.

Kind of difficult matching relievers and starters. I'd switch out Hansen though and replace him with Masterson but keeping with your selections. 1. Chamberlain 2. Buchholz 3. Hughes 4. Lester 5. Kennedy 6. Delcarmen 7. Hansen If Masterson entered replaced Hansen I'd slot him above Kennedy and shift everyone else down.

Hitting is actually the one thing Carter can do. In 2006, he hit 19 home runs, drove in 97 his average was .301 and obp was at .395. In 2007 the line was 18, 84, .324 and .383 in Tucson. Given the number drastically declined in his 24 games in Pawtucket but both of those stops were AAA. As far as the proposed Reyes deal. I'm shouldn't say that the Sox wouldn't want him. I just don't think it would be a strong priority. The question that you have to ask yourself is if Reyes played for Minnesota and he was available would the Sox trade for him? I dont' think so. Career wise, Lugo and Reyes aren't that far away from each other and if you believe in VORP. Masterson projects quite a bit better than Pelfrey albeit in different roles. If the Sox are in on a three way deal involving Santana, I believe that the Sox would need a frontline starter, young star outfielder ie Manny's eventual replacement, and/or a strong back of the bullpen guy. After considering this I think I could see the following trade happen before the other one. Red Sox deal Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Jon Lester Mets deal Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber Twins deal Santana and Nathan. Red Sox get Nathan and Gomez Mets get Santana Twins get Crisp, Lowrie, Lester, Martinez, Mulvey and Humber I think this is probably too complicated for the Sox tastes but it addresses needs within each teams parameters - the Sox are only dealing one of their three kids - the Mets aren't dealing Reyes and the Twins are getting a proven young pitcher and blue chip prospect outfielder.

I don't think the Mets have any interest in dealing Reyes and I don't think the Red Sox would have any interest in him. Ellsbury can do everything that he does well for less money. I also don't think the Sox have any interest in helping any other team get Santana. If we're looking to fit multiple partners you have to start with need and I'm finding it hard to come up with the right match. I'm not ruling out a three team deal. I just don't think Reyes would help this team as much as he would help the Twins.

The Pax sold out first. I was able to get a pair for Det. A pair for Toronto and a pair for two Rays games. It only took 5 hours to get in.

I'm currently still in the waiting room - 3 hours and 20 minutes and counting. Yawn.

I was one of the few that would've liked to see A-Rod come to Boston and its stories like these that make me wonder why he decided to return to NY. The press there can be vicious. This is the AL MVP that carried his team to playoffs. I'm not trying to brush off the content of the article because it doesn't make him out to be the best person but you don't see the Boston media digging into JD Drew's personal life for news stories.

Its also worth mentioning that that same split also was apparent present in Texas. And by the way - Going, going Gagne The Rangers have announced that they are dropping out of the bidding for free agent Eric Gagne. While no specific reason was given, Jon Daniels said Thursday he hoped to have closure on some issues quickly. The Rangers were not willing to give Gagne two guaranteed seasons. Sounds like either the money demands for a one-year deal have gone beyond the Rangers' comfort zone or Scott Boras has told the Rangers he has a two-year offer on the table for Gagne. No word yet on how this will impact the Rangers' bullpen setup.

I agree his arm could probably last a few more seasons my concern is his back lasting those same seasons. On another note, I was wondering how people think the Santana situation is going to affect dealing Crisp? Personally, its a debate that I've gone back and forth on. I think Crisp is more valuable to this team as a fourth outfielder than as a resource for a backup catcher because I dont' see Varitek retiring for awhile and so long as he's here regardless of offensive output he will be in the lineup. If Santana isn't dealt this offseason, I tend to see him staying until midseason and being included in a package to acquire a a player that would factor in more so than a bench player but I don't know my gut has been wrong most of this current offseason.

Mirabelli trumps Gagne if only because of the knee jerk reaction that it was. I like the WMP deal at first because if he ever learned how to stretch at bats he could've been another 40 homer guy in the lineup. I was all for the Gagne trade and you couldn't really fault Theo for it though because on its surface it was almost a no-brainer. I remember going into work the next day and telling everyone how great it was because most of our games were going to end after the 6th inning. The only thing I wonder is if some of the pieces that were dealt in that trade were still here how it'd affect the Santana deal.

I don't know. Wakefield has started to breakdown late in seasons. Unless there's a deal involving our young pitching I don't see him here past 2 years. When Schilling retires, Buchholz will take his place but both Masterson and Bowden should be ready by '09. I think Wakes future depends on what they envision Masterson's role as but barring a move involving our pitching, I don't see a spot for him past 09. I think they'll keep on exercising his option until he decides to retire but I can envision him moving back into the pen as an innings eater. I think Lester will do fine at Fenway. He just needs to locate better period.

For both teams its the Lester deal. For the Sox, if you're acquiring Santana, Lester is your fifth starter and I'd hazard the guess that he would probably be the best fifth starter in the league, but even if the guys coming up behind him don't wind up being as good as he is they should fill that fifth starter role effectively. What Jacoby has shown thus far is very impressive and he fits a major need in the lineup and allows guys like Pedroia and Youk to fit into roles they're better suited for also I'd say the risk that the prospects in the outfield behind Jacoby aren't as good as he is is greater if only because his potential replacements (Place, Kalish, Reddick, Koewen) are all considerably farther off than Lester's potential replacements (Masterson, Hagadone and Bowden) all of which could have an impact by the end of the 2009 season. The package that the Twins would get back in return addresses most of their immediate needs with players that have a better chance of being solid to above average performers than not. Lowrie in particular is intriguing because he fits the profile of a Red Sox player perfectly but as an organizatin he plays a position that the Sox are deep in with potentially high level prospects. That being said - Theo has done such a great job building the farm system that he can make a strong offer - even if it included both and it wouldn't be emptying the system. I would even say that he could swing a Detroit type deal and still have plenty of talent left over to feed the major league team in the coming years.

I still think the Sox's deal is the best on the table. If the Twins want to deal before the season, he'll be coming here. If not, well then we get to do this thing all over again next season minus the would you trade player x thing. My guess is next year, the loser of the Santana sweepstakes gets Sabathia and we get all kinds of fun drama next year.

Yep I set myself up for that one. They're all talented players and if we lose them it does hurt the organization as a whole more than the on field team. None of the three pieces in my deal contributed in the first half of the season when the Sox built the 11 game lead in the division. Yes short is an issue but I personally am not convinced that we saw the best of Lugo and even if we haven't it will be difficult to move him if he doesn't reestablish himself next year. And that doesn't actually factor that Lowrie profiles more at second based on his so-so defense. The reason why I basically consider him a spare part is because in 3 years you will probably have 5 guys ready to play for four infield positions - Middlebrooks, Anderson, Lowrie, Pedroia and Youk now alot can happen between now and then with Middlebrooks and Anderson but if Lowrie isn't in the equation than you can play Middlebrooks at short move youk to third and slot anderson at 1st and if he doesn't pan out than you have Dent and Tejeda that could be in line right after him and there's always FA options. Lester was amazing in the WS but throughout the course of his first two seasons he has been somewhat inconsistent. He has great potential and I think he could slot as a #2 without much of a stretch but his ceiling is probably about 75% of what Santana is. Ellsbury hurts the most because on Opening Day I can see a major difference in production from him to Crisp but that being said I don't think he projects to be the most talented player in the Sox system - I'd day that would probably belong to Kalish or Middlebrooks. But consider this - at the beginning of the year last year our rotation was Beckett - Schilling - Dice.K - Wakefield - Tavarez and we opened up an 11 game lead due to our dominant pitching (and of course injuries to the Blue Jays and Yanks) but now replace Tavarez with Santana - how much better do you think our record would've been? That'sl basically what this trade does. Lastly, as far as the bullpen and bench. I actually think we're pretty all set as far as that goes. Papelbon, Delcarmen, Timlin, Oki, Lopez, Snyder and Tavarez are back and if Masterson isn't dealt he will probably get a call up in the summer from the Pen. We have Cora. I think it would be easy to resign Kielty as a fourth outfielder and if necessary use Dusty Brown / George Kottaras behind Tek but I do think the team will probably resign Mirabelli for another year so there isn't a major need. The backup catcher role is overrated to an extent. If Varitek plays you can almost guarantee it will be here regardless of his production so how much are you willing to give up for a guy who plays 30 games that doesn't throw a fastball?

There seem to be alot of people that feel this way but if the deal is say Ellsbury, Lester, and Lowrie what is it the Sox are really giving up? Ellsbury would hurt because represents a strong improvement over Crisp but with Lester you're talking about the fifth starter in a rotation that contains two established aces and two more potential aces and you can assume over the next two years Masterson, Bowden or Hagadone will make a pretty solid if not above average fifth starter. I don't make a four or five player deal with both in it but I'd include both for the best player in baseball because even after giving away the #2 and 3 prospects and Lester the organizations success with the draft has lent itself to a deep farm system. There would still be plenty of talent left in the farm system.

I agree 100%. I think the issue is everyone the Twins are dealing with is getting tired of waiting and trying to pry more either accept the offer or deny it but at this point I think its very difficult for the Twins to keep him - not because of payroll or return on investment but because at this point he has to be checked out on the team. Also, my opinion on Beckett and ego has changed slightly. Rob Bradford on Sports Tonight mentioned that the money wouldn't be the issue but he did mention something that caught my attention that I think was lost slightly on the panel - he said there's no question that I'm the opening day starter. So while Santana's contract may not be an issue, Beckett's status as the teams #1 option is something that he obviously values. I wouldn't doubt if the Sox have had some conversations with Beckett about the deal. I still don't think this thing gets done but this post is heading toward uncharted territory - 1000 posts. Goodbye, Mark Bellhorn. PS - 4.9 isn't exactly a stretch for Lester, he's been in the mid-4's both years he's been here.

That was posted 10 minutes before this on ESPN: 4:03 p.m., from Jayson Stark • The Red Sox and Twins continue to have "a lot of dialogue" about Johan Santana, according to one source with knowledge of their discussions. But there is no indication they've been able to rebuild any momentum toward a deal. The Red Sox want to make this deal on their terms, meaning they're still only willing to offer either Jon Lester or Jacoby Ellsbury but not both. The Twins think they need a bigger return if they're trading Santana. So even though their ability to compete in the AL Central took a hit with the Tigers' deal for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, it doesn't appear that has heightened the Twins' sense of urgency to complete a deal. I dont' think the Sox will walk away but I don't think they'll be caving. I have serious doubts about the trade getting done but more on the Twins part than the Sox. If the deal was going to get done, it would've been done yesterday in my opinion and the fact that they are actively seeking out other partners is a strong indicator of that. Also, MLB doesn't operate like the NFL or even the NBA and players have to wait for their payday. Beckett doesn't strike me as a new Pedro. I think he's happy where he is. He'll get his in 2 or 3 years. Lastly, I've seen alot of chatter about the Sox and Twins agreeing on the deal and then the Sox not getting it done because of the contract. I think that the team is serious and will get something done if the trade is consumated because they have to have an idea of the price and if the Sox had the deal and it fell through that makes it 300% easier for the Yanks to get back in for their price.

To be honest the rule makes sense but in the opposite direction. If you want to limit these clauses MLB should be passing the rules banning the provisions and not the writers eliminating them from competition. Think about it - if Beckett lost the Cy Young by one vote and that one vote came from Joe Schmoe in NY who voted for Pedro as a favor because the guy could make 1 mill off of it people in Boston would be going crazy. I would be surprised if Schilling didn't appear on one of the Boston writer's ballots as a number three just as a thank you for being so open to chat.

I've spent the better part of the last week hitting refresh on every single baseball site I can find and nothing yet. I'm beginning to fall into the okay lets just get it done area. The longer this goes on the more of a chance of it falling apart.

Don't forget Renteria and Scheffield.

I still find it amazing that barring a sudden sweep back into the Santana derby at this point you'd have to put the Yankees no better than #3 as far as favorites to win it next year.

I don't think it does. Everyone needs Santana but the Angels are more desperate for a bat so I'd think that thats where they turn their attention. I also think the $$ end will affect the Angels.

Sean McAdams says its three for one - Lester, Kalish and Masterson

It looks like the Tigers have now become big players next year.

Probably from one of Jacko's posts and don't forget that Melky can leap tall buildings in a single bound thing