Upper Level RH Starters AA or higher
1. Dellin Betances, 24 yrs old: AA/AAA- 126.1IP 3.70ERA 10.1K/9IP 2.0K/BB 1.36WHIP- Betances is all about power. He just turned 24 and has been in the Yankee system for what seems like forever. Drafted in the vaunted 2006 draft alongside Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Mark Melancon, and David Robertson, Betances has quite possibly the highest ceiling. A 6’8” righty who has put on nearly 50 pounds of muscle since signing, he has taken himself from project to prospect in 6 seasons. He made his big league debut last yr and is primed to spend one final season in AAA before going to the bigs for good in 2013 in some capacity. He throws a mid 90s fastball with downward movement that is nearly unhittable down in the zone. He throws a plus curveball and now a plus changeup. Betances’ biggest issues have been replication of mechanics. Much like Randy Johnson and other very tall power pitchers, he struggles from start to start with his mechanics. He’s had starts where he’s struck out double digit batters followed by starts where he’d walk more than a batter an inning. This mechanical inconsistency is why his role is to be determined. If he struggles with his command through the season and shows no improvement, he could be relegated to back end bullpen duty. In short stints, he’d be deadly. Add a tick or two to his FB and he’d be sitting upper 90s with a knockout curve. But his promise out of the rotation will give him plenty of chances. He has top of the rotation stuff and now completely healthy after having TJS in late 2009, he should start to refine his mechanics. He will start 2012 in AAA and I expect him to stay there barring an injury to Robertson or Rivera or a slew of injuries in the staff.
2. Adam Warren, 24yrs old: AAA- 152.1IP 3.60ERA 6.6K/9IP 2.1K/BB- Warren is entirely dissimilar from Betances. He is a solid framed righty who can come at you with power stuff, but he relies on strike throwing ability and the capability to locate his fastball wherever he wants. The guy is a bulldog on the mound and looks the part of a solid innings eater, although likely not a power pitcher capable of leading a staff. He throws 2 fastballs, a 4 seamer he uses for show and can run in the 93-96 range. His 2 seamer is his bread and butter. It’s a heavy pitch capable of getting grounders and poor hacks if located properly. He runs that in the 91-93mph range. He doesn’t have one plus offspeed offering, but he does have 3 major league caliber offspeed pitches in a change, slider and curve. What he lacks in overall bite, he gains in fluid arm action and command. And his mentality sets him apart from a lot of minor leaguers hell bent on blowing hitters away. Warren will go after hitters with an array of offspeed pitches as well as his sinking fastball and can throw any pitch in any count. His future is definitely in a rotation, although I don’t think it will be in the Yankee rotation due to the other high end prospects ahead of him (Betances and Banuelos) in the minors and on the big league roster. He will repeat AAA this yr and is a prime candidate for a mid season trade.
3. Brett Marshall, 22 yrs old: A+- 140.1IP 3.78ERA 2.4K/BB 1.35WHIP- I may be a bit higher on Marshall than most, but I really like what this kid is doing. Marshall had a solid 2011 campaign, solid, but not dominant. I guess that is what most of the scouts were looking for. After TJS in 2009, Marshall made it back for 72IP of low A ball in 2010 where he was filthy. In 2011, he started out the year rough but made solid transitions and eventually put up a good line. Prior to TJS, Marshall was a mid 90s 4 seam fastball guy whose slider was scrapped for an inconsistent curveball. Once he recovered from TJS, his arsenal changed. He still has the mid 90s heat, but he seldom throws it in the 4 seam variety. Like Warren, he relies on a low 90s 2 seamer that he can command at will. His curveball is shelved for good and he is back to throwing a solid yet not spectacular slider. His changeup has improved tremendously into a plus pitch. One of the reasons why I am high on Marshall is that he has mid 90s stuff but he’s learned how to pitch by going a little softer and finding his spots. Going into what should be his first completely healthy season status post TJS, I am thinking he can do some big things. As is, he could be a back end pen guy or a middle of the rotation pitcher. Should he incorporate the mid 90s heat and make some strides with the slider, he could very well be something more. He’ll start the yr in AA and go from there
4. David Phelps, 25yrs old, AAA- 107.1IP 3.19ERA 7.5K/9IP 3.5K/BB 1.31WHIP- Phelps has been a pleasant surprise since being drafted in the 14th round out of Notre Dame in 2008 , and he has shown that he is completely capable of being an innings eater on the mound. He doesn’t possess incredible, life changing stuff, but like the last 2 guys on this list, he can locate anything in any count. He can top out at 95 with a 4 seamer, but he predominantly sits low 90s with a 2 seamer that he can locate to all quadrants of the plate. He does have a plus slider which he uses a fair amount. He rounds out his arsenal with an average curve and changeup. As evidenced by his walk rate of 2.2 per 9, he can locate all of his pitches on a dime. And if it weren’t for an injury last yr, he might have been the guy to make a few spot starts while Bartolo Colon was down. He isn’t a flashy guy and he won’t be the ace of a staff, but he does have solid middle of the rotation potential and he is very close to his ceiling. He could start on many staffs right now and I have a feeling he will be starting for someone by the end of the season. It just will likely not be in NY. He will repeat AAA this yr and will probably be a sought after commodity on the trade market. Had he been in Pittsburgh’s system, he’d have been in their rotation by 2010, but in this market, he’s stuck at the top.
5. D.J. Mitchell, 24yrs old, AAA- 161.1IP 3.18ERA 6.2K/9IP 1.8K/BB 1.35WHIP- Mitchell is an interesting pitcher in this system to say the least. On raw stuff alone, he has two of the best pitches on this list. He has a downright nasty sinker with wicked movement that runs as high as 92mph, but sits 89-90. His trouble has been locating it due to its particularly wicked movement which has led to his walk rate being a little elevated (3.5/9IP last yr). He also has a plus curveball that is one of the best in the system. He rounds out his arsenal with a solid changeup. The guy is a groundball machine and can get the occasional K, although not really a strikeout pitcher. The reason why I think he is interesting, is that I think he fits very well into the mold of a Scot Shields or Ramiro Mendoza type. He doesn’t have the mid to high 90s cheese of a late inning reliever and he lacks the big fastball that he can flash to keep hitters honest 3 times through the order. He also lacks the plus command that a softer tossing pitcher would need to go deep into games in the AL East. But I think this kid could do a very solid job as a swing pitcher, capable of giving 3 solid innings of relief or being a spot starter. That role has proven valuable in the Yankees prior WS runs (Aceves in 2009 and Mendoza around the turn of the millenium). As a starter, I think he could be a solid average NL starter, maybe a back end starter in the AL, but shorten up his stints and use him in a swing role and he could be very, very solid. He’s slated to start in AAA, and of all the non-ace AAA starters, I hope he is the one who isn’t dealt. His ultimate role could be huge for this team going forward. Until the glut of starters issue is fixed, though, he wont have a big league role. Come 2013, though, he’ll be the swing man if not traded.
6. Graham Stoneburner, 24yrs old: GCL/A+/AA- 91.1IP 4.04ERA 6.0K/9IP 2.2K/BB 1.40WHIP- Stoneburner is in a wait and see mode. He was utterly dominant in 2010, but pinched a nerve in his neck in 2011. He required a lot of rehab and a cortisone injection and when he came back, he wasn’t the same. He typically sat 92-95 in 2010, but last yr was sitting near 90 with multiple spells of high 80s. His slider, which showed plus potential, reverted to being inconsistent. The only constant was his solid plus changeup. He is supposedly completely healthy. If he can show that mid 90s heat again as well as the return of his slider, he could be a solid pitcher with a #2 starter ceiling. If he comes out and is throwing around 90mph again, then he is barely an adequate #5 starter. This is a big yr for him, we’ll see how he does. He will start in the rotation at AA this yr and go from there.