jacksonianmarch

Yeah, I just read that today. Cash says no jobs are guaranteed, so Drury will have to win it, but they’re bringing him in as a 3b. Surprising since he posted a positive UZR/150 at 2b last yr. Either way, Drury at 3b and Wade at 2b to start the year. Andujar and Torres up in May or later and Drury playing the super sub role. With Drury on board, our depth is definitely increased. At C, we have Sanchez with Romine and Higashioka fighting it out for backup roles At 1B, we have Bird. If he goes down, we have Andujar, Austin or Drury to back him up At 2B, we have Wade, Torres, Drury and Torreyes for now At SS, we have Didi with Torreyes, Torres and Wade able to back him up At 3B, we have Drury with Andujar, Torres, Torreyes and Wade to back him up. In the corners, we have Gardner and Judge with Stanton able to spell them from his DH role. After him, Drury is capable as is Ellsbury and Frazier In CF, we have Hicks with Gardner and Ellsbury capable of spelling him if need be.

With Drury in the fold, I expect the 2018 opening day lineup to look like this 1. Gardner LF 2. Judge RF 3. Stanton DH 4. Bird 1B 5. Sanchez C 6. Gregorius SS 7. Hicks CF 8. Drury 2B 9. Andujar 3B By mid May, I expect Torres to usurp one of the roles above. I have been reading about Drury’s acquisition and I think he’s going to be more a super sub long term. He can play the corner OF spots as well as all over the infield. He’s got power and can hit for enough average to make his lack of walks somewhat palatable. Once Torres ascends, I think that’ll spell the end of Torreyes. I think Drury can carve out a Martin Prado style career with more power. That’ll be very useful on a team breaking in two top notch rookies and also provides big league insurance should one of the kids turn out not to be Yankee level caliber

Chapman did discharge a weapon but he did it away from his girlfriend. Chapman was also a better player at the time. Either way, we don’t know the extent of either. Chap may have been yelled at and shot his basement wall instead of arguing or hitting. Wright may have beaten the hell out of her. We don’t know, so trying to separate the two is ridiculous. I just find it funny how lots of people on here were playing morality police with Chapman but have been real quiet on Wright.

If Drury takes off and hits to his potential, then this deal is a homerun. But I think Solak has the potential to be a solid #2 hitter and Widener looks the part of a closer long term. If both those guys hit their ceilings and Drury continues on replacement level without rising, we’ll regret the deal

Ah, the moralist arrives. Point remains

YES SOME GOOD SOX-YANKEE BANTER! The f***ing thaw has occurred. The sox have the rotation? Really? You've got a bona fide ace, I'll give you that one. Sale is a true ace. Last year, so was Severino. Clearly, Sale has the better track record, but Severino can hold his own against Sale and doesn't have the mileage on his tread like Sale does. This is advantage Boston, but if Sevy replicates 2017, then it will be more a wash than anything else Your number 2 going into the season has to be Price. Well, Price was on the shelf with a "tear" in his elbow that never got fixed. He looked healthy come playoffs last yr but you haven't seen him stretched out and under workload since 2016, and btw, he was a #3 starter in 2016. Our number 2 starter is Tanaka. His first half was awful last year, his second half was his typical production. He was absolute nails in the playoffs. Both #2's have ace upside. Both have recent arm issues. Both have performance issues of late. Claiming victory here for either side is premature The number 3's are Gray and Pomeranz. Pomeranz had himself a whale of a 2017, for a 5 inning pitcher. He averaged 5.4IP/start. He's been a 3WAR pitcher the last 2 seasons due to his high K rates, but a #3 that hands the ball to the pen in the middle of the 6th on average is a problem. Not to mention, Pomeranz has his injury history as well. Sonny Gray is another former ace who came off an injury plagued 2016 to post very strong numbers in 2017. Both guys had similar WAR's. Gray has proven he can be an ace before. To give anyone an advantage here is premature at best. The number 4's are Sabathia and Porcello. Sabathia showed a resurgent fastball (up 1mph from 2016 and up 2.1mph from 2014) and secondary stuff to post a strong, albeit injury shortened 2017. CC showed in the post season that he can shoulder the load in big games as well. He is an old guy and who knows if he can perform as well as last year. Porcello posted nearly an exact same WAR to Sabathia's from a year ago. Porcello has more durability for sure, but production has been the issue. His HR rate was nearly 1.7 per 9IP and hence his 4.65ERA was actually spot on with his peripherals. While you can count on Porcello taking the bump every time his name is called, you can count on a mediocre to below average performance in doing so. Yes, he won a CY 2 yrs ago, but his CY was sandwiched between 2 pretty rough seasons. Sabathia has at least performed better in the time he has taken the hill. Either way, same WAR, production vs durability. This is a wash The number 5's are Jordan Montgomery and E-Rod. Montgomery was a revelation with NYY last season, carrying over solid production using a mix of good but not spectacular stuff with solid deception and location to post a near 3 WAR in 29 starts. He is very Andy Pettitte like. Girardi also didn't trust him much to get beyond the 5th, so his 5.4IP/start mirrors your #3 above, not due to high pitch counts, but more due to a lack of trust. Either way, a near 3 WAR out of a rookie #5 starter is great. E-Rod posted a 2.1WAR in his 24 starts and if he was healthy, this would be another wash. Since he isn't healthy at this juncture, this looks to be the one square advantage the Yankees have at this point in the 1-5. The only real sox advantage is Sale vs Sevy and that isn't very big. The only Yanks advantage is JMont vs ERod and that is mostly health. But where we make our hay is our depth. We can roll out top prospect after prospect after prospect in the rotation in the event of injury or ineffectiveness. The sox have Brian Johnson, who has proven to be more a AAAA arm and Steven Wright, who has hit more wives than pitching mounds over the last 9 months. In the end, I think this is a far more evenly matched rotation than sox fans care to realize and one that could shift strongly in the Yankees favor should the depths be challenged.

3 team trade. Steven Souza and Taylor Widener to the Diamondbacks. Nick Solak and Anthony Banda to TB. Brandon Drury to NY. May be other pieces. Drury is a 25 yr old right handed hitter who plays an adequate 2b and has some pop. He does have a high K rate to this point with a low walk rate. His power should improve with time likely capping out as a 20HR player. I wonder if he will ever develop patience. This is a deal that acquires a low rent place holder. I liked Solak and Widener a lot and think we might end up regretting this deal, but right now this allows us the opportunity to hold a place for the Torres or Andujar. Drury can play both places.

So it’s a 25-25-20-20-20. The opt outs are intriguing. He turns 31 this summer. He turns 32 next summer. If he opts out, he’ll be hitting free agency as a 32 yr old DH. That being said, he gets away from the Uber FA season which is next year. His market will be interesting should he produce. His comp would be EE and he’d have an EE contract at that point although he’d hit the market again 2 years younger. This isn’t the albatross most expected, but if he is injured or ineffective and stays on with Boston, then his contract will be problematic in terms of keeping the band together. That being said, this contract will be the norm going forward. Owners will cede length for player flexibility and they’ll offer higher AAV’s early on with the hopes of lowering the AAV for lux tax purposes. My anticipation is that this deal ends up being a 2 yr $50 mil deal. But with the $110/5 model, it’ll be $22 mil against the lux tax which saves the sox $3 mil vs the cap. This is similar to the Nunez deal which is really a 1 yr $6 mil deal, but it looks like a 1 yr $4 mil deal on the books. DD brought in Nunez and JD for $26 mil against the books for 2018 and in kind saved $5 mil against the cap with smart math. I think you’ll see this for Machado and Harper next year. I have predicted a Harper contract of 10 yr $300 mil, but a massive 3-4 yr front load and an opt out. No team, not even NY or LA can afford to have 1/5 their lux cap spent on one player, but they can outlay that money and drop the lux tax hit with sham long term contracts that are shorter term, higher money deals.

Goose also isn't Pedro. Goose has always had a dinkish side to him and it bit him in the ass while playing with NYY and now it will bite him in his retirement. He fails to understand that analytics by nerds with glasses actually helps select the players best suited to succeed at the major league level. If he wants to be a dinosaur, fine. If he wants to bash the analytics guy who happens to run the club, it will get him banned

I’m happy for you guys as I want the rivalry to return to the glory days. That being said, once April comes, I’ll hope JD sucks hard and his contract becomes an albatross

I bet Dave offered the 5/110 all along and once he front loaded it and added the opt outs, Boras bit

Front loaded with an opt out. I anticipate this will be the norm going forward. This is a 2 yr deal barring a massive decline. Smart with the window closing. This props it open.

Bell, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. I don't think Betts is going to be top 2 in MVP voting every year. I don't anticipate JBJ is a 5 WAR player going forward. But they are capable of more than what they did in 2017

What if 2016 was the rise and 2017 is more who they will be going forward?

This is a glorified 1 year deal. But Dd saved $2 mil AAV by using the option opt out money. Smart

You are all looking at 2017 as a year of the decline. I think you should probably look at 2016 as the year of the rise. Guys with career high WAR's in 2016: Bogaerts, Bradley Jr., Betts, Leon. Hanley put up his best WAR as a Red Sox in 2016 sandwiched between 2 negatives. Pedey had his best WAR since 2011. And this was all centered around Ortiz having one of the best send-off seasons ever. You remove Ortiz, guys come back down to prior levels or performance and now your team isn't all it was cracked up to be. I still think you need more offense, but I don't know if DD shares that sentiment. I think you might be done unless JD comes back to Boston's offer. I wonder if JD ends up going back to Arizona and signs a Cespedes type deal, shorter term (3 years) with an opt out after year 1.

He is goofy and his swing looks peculiar, but he gets the job done. He's this tiny guy who can go on a streak and smack 9 HR in a month then go dormant. I do love the guy, but his biggest calling card had been the speed, which has clearly taken a step back. He is still pesky in the box and still takes his share of walks, so he is still useful. For as rough as the Headley deal seems (the Yankees got about contract value based on FG's strange value metric) like a loss, the Gardner deal was a big boon for us. The question is, do we decline Gardy's option next year to free up room for Harper? Do we pick it up and deal him? ( He will have 10 and 5 rights). I am not sure.

Thairo Estrada was shot in the hip in a robbery attempt in his native Venezuela. The bullet will remain lodged in him forever. There was apparently no bony injury and he is already riding a stationary bike. They expect him (unofficially) to be ready by the time the season starts, although this isn't the typical type of injury the trainers deal with regularly. Tough break, but hopefully we don't push him. Let him heal back to 100%. Have an American doc see if they can remove the bullet with minimal invasion. He's very young and very good and we have a ton of IF depth, so rushing him makes no sense

And btw, I think all 29 other teams have submitted the waiver claim.

I think they have a deal in place and just needed to open the 40 man roster slot. That being said, it is hard to see how a guy who can handle the COF defensively at an average level and can hit to his level would be DFA'd. Unless the trade is completed and the paperwork is pending, I wouldn't have done this. If the Rays are that hard up for cash, then that's sad. This isn't a guy making $20 mil via arbitration. They should be able to afford this

Dickerson being released makes no sense. Yes, a gigantic hole in his swing developed after the ASB, but for the first half, he was nails. He’ll be scooped up quickly

Actually, this move likely ends the JD Martinez saga. I also think this satisfies the Hanley issue as well. For the beginning of the season, Hanley is a regular, Nunez moves to 2b and all is honkey dorey. When Pedroia returns, I think Nunez plays a lot of 3b, supplanting Devers to the DH role and relegating Hanley to platoon DH duties

Nobody must have thought his knee was healthy enough to give a long term deal to. There goes the concern about Pedey right there. The old man can now return when he is ready. This is an interesting development as I assume to get Nunez on a 1 yr deal, they needed to give him a fair chunk of change. I wonder if this has been in DD's back pocket and he finally got sick of JD

I’m glad we didn’t do that deal. We’d be out the prospects for Odorizzi and Andujar for some salary relief and a year of Machado. If we had Machado for a few years, then I’m in. While I don’t expect Andujar to be as good as Machado, I do think this kid has all star level talent

We have some other money coming off the books as well with CC and his $10 mil, KRob's $14 mil, and the potential to get out of the $14 mil owed to Gardner with the option. The only other guy slated for FA is Warren and his $3+ mil arb salary. Either way, $41 mil can come off the books plus the $6 mil in dead money from McCann and Headley brings up an interesting situation. Plus, we can replace all of the above with internal candidates. CC with Sheffield or Adams, Gardner with Frazier, KRob with a multitude of pen arms and Warren with the same.