jacksonianmarch

The sox offense has improved with Nunez and JD coming on board. When Pedey comes on board, he might not actually improve the offense of it pushes Nunez to the bench. The Yankees offense was great and added Stanton while subtracting Holliday. Drury should easily replace and surpass Headley’s. The Yankee kids may not be better offensively than Castro, actually most likely will not be. A healthy Greg Bird adds a lot for us as well. Either way, on the whole, the Yanks improved also. I anticipate both teams will have very strong utility play come mid year with Drury likely going to super sub once Andujar is ready and Wade going to sub with speed once Torres is ready. The sox will have Nunez for the IF and with JD capable of playing some OF, it gives some redundancy. This should be a good year offensively for both teams. I think the Yankees will battle Houston for the #1 offense in baseball and the sox should be good enough to be top 5. Going to feel good having a rivalry all season long

The 9 spot. Vasquez overperformed offensively. He’s never been a great offensive performer and I don’t anticipate he ever will. His .348 BABIP shows he’s likely headed for a .250ish BA. The Yankees have Wade and Torres. Anything for NYY at this point is projection. But both guys have talent. Wade is a speedster capable of stealing 30 bases and hitting for a high average. Torres is a future #2 hitter with high BA/OBP capabilities with growing power as a mid 20s HR guy. This isn’t a wash. I’ll take the Yanks uncertain yet talented 2b over a Vazquez who will likely hit .250 with no power or OBP.

Drury vs Bradley. Very interesting. Drury is a power hitting infielder who hasn’t seen a full season on offense. He doesn’t walk and strikes out a fair amount, yet has produced solid batting average skills in his two seasons. JBJ has been middling for 2 seasons and awesome for 1.5. When he’s hot, he gets white hot. But his cold stretches offset this significantly. I think these guys wash each other out. Drury is still young and hasn’t played a full season yet. He’s got 20+ HR potential. JBJ has proven more to be a 15HR kind of guy who cannot hold an average, yet can show solid on base capability. Both guys have upside depending on how long Bradley stays hot vs if Drury takes off in the power department.

Nunez vs Hicks. This one is an interesting. Hicks finally delivered on his promise last year, but oblique injuries cut his season short. Nunez had a career season as well yet his knee ended his season prematurely. Nunez has more BA capability as well as his running ability. Hicks isn’t a slouch on the bases either. If fully healthy, Hicks has far more offensive capability as a power hitter with a solid eye. Nunez has more of a track record. I’ll take the upside in Hicks, but this one could easily swing Boston’s way if Hicks cannot replicate his awesome, albeit injury shortened 2017

Didi vs Bogey. This one used to be closer, but Didi has become what Xander could have been. Didi has been clutch, hits for average, is probably our best contact hitter and has hit 20+ HR two years running. This is solidly in our favor unless Bogaerts remembers who he could have been

Sánchez vs Devers. This one has the capability of a wash depending on Devers reaching his potential, but Sánchez may not have reached his potential either. Sánchez is a perennial all star hitter with 40HR capability and the ability to hit for a high average. In this lineup with all the firepower above, this one goes to NYY

The sox 1b combo vs Bird. This is all about projection when it comes to the heavier hitting part of your platoon vs a healthy Bird. Greg Bird is a masher whose swing is custom tailored to Yankee stadium. Hanley Ramirez is a 30/100 player when healthy, yet he hasn’t been and now he is older. If Bird can stay healthy, he wins this by far. He’s a near .900 OPS guy with 30HR capability. Problem is, he hasn’t been healthy. Well, he is now, for now. I’m gonna give this another wash with Bird getting the upside should he stay healthy and play up to his capability.

JD vs Stanton. JD has been an absolute masher the last three years. Stanton has been the standard for power hitters since he entered the league. Both have injury histories. Both are capable of hitting 40+ HR in their sleep. Stanton is going to a far better hitting environment. JD went from a bad hitting environment to a great one in AZ and now in a great one again in Boston. Both guys project to have similar stat lines. Both should be absolute monsters provided good health in 2018. This is a wash again

Betts vs Judge. It’s like asking for Gold or Gold. Judge had the more impressive offensive season in 2017 and has more OBP and power potential. Betts has the potential for a higher BA and stolen bases. Betts took a step back in 2017 albeit still an all star caliber performer. If you remove defense, Judge has the upper hand assuming he can come close to replicating 2017. I’m going to do the same thing I did with Gardner. This is a wash for 2018 with upside to Judge if he can replicate his superhuman 2017

Position to position battles make little sense in determining who has a better lineup. So I’m going to do it based on projected lineup position Starting at the leadoff spot. Beni and Gardy. Guys on the polar opposites of their career arcs, yet their production was nearly identical offensively. Both were 20/20 guys, both had reasonable defensive seasons and both had near identical triple slash lines. If they both replicate 2017, then they’re likely to be identical again. I anticipate Beni has more to show going forward. The question is, will Beni progress in year 2. Either way, for now it’s a wash with considerable upside towards boston and the possibility of a drop off for NYY

This is the first year I have done this in awhile. The Yankees haven’t been favored for anything but mediocrity at the outset since 2013 when they came crashing down and missed the playoffs. After winning the WC and taking the Astros to the brink in the ALCS, they are poised to be true World Series contenders in 2018. With the addition of Stanton (and Drury) and the retention of CC and Tanaka plus full seasons from Kahnle, Gray and KRob, NYY looks ready for bear in a stacked AL. The sox won the AL East two years in a row and addressed their biggest needs by bringing back Nunez and bringing in Martinez. They enter 2017 with some health questions with Pedroia and ERod already on the shelf and Price coming back from a year in his elbow after being relegated to relief duty by seasons’ end. If fully healthy, the sox have the squad to win it all as well. Projected opening day lineups NYY 1. Gardner LF 2. Judge RF 3. Stanton DH 4. Bird 1B 5. Sánchez C 6. Gregorius SS 7. Hicks CF 8. Drury 3B 9. Wade/Torres 2B Boston 1. Benintendi LF 2. Betts RF 3. Martinez DH 4. Ramirez/Moreland 1B 5. Devers 3B 6. Bogaerts SS 7. Nunez 2B 8. Bradley Jr. CF 9. Vasquez C

Everything is bluster aside from injuries this time of year. It isn’t even March yet

The negotiations were between the sox, the sox and the sox. Boras couldn’t get the sox to bid against themselves

WAR has always struggled with starters. It seems to reward durability over productivity. A guy who can go 6IP a start and take the bump 33 times a season will always get high WAR marks regardless of effectiveness. Porcello was an innings eater last year, but to say he was worth 2 wins above replacement because he was durable really demeans the basis of a replacement level player.

Who cares which utility guy breaks camp with the sox. Once Pedroia returns, they’ll be cut free. Nunez as a utility guy will be very useful. Speed, some power, defensive versatility (albeit below average) and also gives the sox the chance to have a real 3b option should Devers prove to be useless defensively

Guys, the hot stove is over for Yanks and Sox. We got Drury and Stanton and returned CC and Tanaka You got JD and returned Moreland and Nunez. The rest of the players out there will sign somewhere, but we cannot stay under the cap with the big names and you guys cannot stay out of the final penalty phase with them either.

So Drury moves to 3b. Wade probably starts the year at 2b. I’d think they’d want Torres game seasoned come his debut and that can only happen if he starts in AAA. That’ll also delay his clock. Drury at least adds some offensive stability to the projection and with his considerably upside in the power department, might surprise beyond his expected .270/.320/.450 slash. Wade will be a pesky player if he can get accustomed to big league pitching. He’s a great defender who will steal lots of bases, take walks and have some pull side power, which will play very well in Yankee stadium. He’s very much akin to a young Gardner in terms of what he displays offensively

I learned that you need to set aside a fair amount for medical and bonuses. This is why NYY is $15 mil below but the real number available is somewhere around $7 mil

Some truth spouted by the masses. JD is an abhorrent defender. Advocating for him to play the OF is both detrimental to your team defense and potentially detrimental to JD’s health. If I were DD or Cora, I’d have David Ortiz glued to JD throughout camp. Have David go over the transition from field to no field and the mentality required. It’s far harder than people think. I was a 1b in college and my senior year, I moved to DH as our SS hurt his shoulder and was a far better fielder than I. I couldn’t do it. I felt like I wasn’t a part of the game. It’s far harder than you think, especially when you haven’t been transitioned to it gradually. I’d have David there to show JD what to do during the downtime. Aside from literally 5 minutes of action, you have no role for the other 2 hours and 55 minutes.

Fangraphs has him as a putrid outfielder. -15 UZR/150 in 17, below -20 in 16. That’s an abysmal fielder. He’ll get some OF PT just as routine maintenance of the 3 solid defensive OFers, but with the Lisfranc injury, I’d assume no more than 40-50 games out there. If you figure each OFer, if healthy, will see 145-150 games, that’ll give you 45-51 games out there. JD probably only plays LF with Beni shifting to CF or RF when the other guys are rested

When the Yankees, Dodgers and Cubs aren’t in the bidding and other larger markets like the White Sox, Giants, and Cardinals aren’t in it for a variety of reasons, your market will be limited. I think the CBA battle coming up will be epic. The way the cost of signing a QO FA went up plus the lux tax penalties accrue, it took a lot of teams out of the market that would have been in it, especially with a transcendent market coming up next year. The epic wave of FAs coming really screwed the market for this year and the union will want to prevent that from ever happening again.

Martinez has his warts. He’s an Uber talented slugger. But he’s without a position, has lingering injury histories, and is not a spring chicken. I’m not surprised DD is doing what he needs to do to ensure the contract is vetted through all parties in the organization. The funny thing in all of this is Boras’ misreading of JD’s market. Boras came into the FA freeze as if he had a transcendent talent. He didn’t realize he had an injury prone DH who, even though he hit 45 homers, did so after missing 40 games due to injury to start the year.

New England summers are the absolute best. The last few weeks of spring and the first few weeks of fall are amazing as well. Nov 1- May 1 blows.

Like a tumor

So the deal in its entirety is interesting. First 3 years at $23.75 mil. Last 2 yrs at $19.375 mil Opt out after 2 seasons gives JD an extra $2.5 mil buyout. (Hence $50 mil over 2 seasons) Opt out after 3 seasons gives no other incentive. So this is either.... A 2 yr $50 mil deal A 3yr $71.75 mil deal or A 5yrs $110 mil deal