jacksonianmarch

Chavis has the higher floor, Dalbec the higher upside, IMO

And then your GM watched two good pen arms walk away without any improvements brought in. 2019 is different than 2018, or do you not realize that?

Dombrowski’s biggest bugaboos prior to last season have been his bullpens. The Sox showed that in 2013 when they beat his Tigers squad with multiple comebacks. Last year, your pen was good with the late hammer in Kimbrel. Come the playoffs, Kimbrel was tipping his pitches and Cora used some starters plus some ridiculous performances from Barnes and Kelly to create a lights out pen. Kelly has left and you’re not going to use starters in the pen for the regular season. Kimbrel being gone from the regular season is going to be significant. Now, I’m not saying Kimbrel is going to be great come 2019, just saying removing a sub 1 WHIP, high strikeout, 90-ish percent save conversion closer with his credibility is not going to be easy. Even if Barnes becomes a reliable closer, you’re then losing a reliable setup man in the process. In today’s game where starters go 5-6IP, having only one proven reliable reliever is something most rebuilding teams have, not a team headed for playoff contention. I think most people here are going to be up in arms over the state of the pen, and that’s even with good performances from Brasier and Barnes, which is far from guaranteed.

And a year where is BABIP is under .200 is not going to be a career worst year?

Steroids are injected in depo fashion, missing a vein is important, that’s why the injection is usually into the buttocks

Sanchez is a far bigger offensive force than Zunino. Sanchez has his career worst season last year. He’s going to far outperform Zunino in 2019

I think we are going to see a very different Gary Sanchez this season. He had a left shoulder injury plus a groin and other injuries last season. The groin et al have subsided and the left shoulder injury was fixed with surgery. Last year, his GB% rose slightly, his LD% cratered and his Infield Fly Ball rate jumped. His HR/FB rate dropped precipitously as well. Interestingly, his soft and medium contact were about the same with a slight (1.4%) drop in hard contact. Add in a BABIP of under .200 and you have a guy who got pretty unlucky but also couldn't drive the ball as well. Interestingly, his pull percentage was the same, but he went to RF 3% more last year and went to center 3% less. Watching Sanchez, his power is to CF, so it makes sense that he couldn't drive the ball to CF as much as he was a touch late due to his top arm being weak. The only really good thing I see in the peripherals is his walk rate jumped from 7-12%. Now, defensive woes are still a problem, but offensively (if healthy), he predicts to be a force with the bat. And if his walk rate continues from last year while his hitting improves, he could be a .900+OPS hitter. The predictors also favor bounceback years from him. The 5 projection tools on fangraphs have him with a BA between .245-.260, OBP between .322-.352, and a SLG between .483-.498. For the catchers position, an OPS over .800 is awesome, so that would be a huge plus if he reached the predictions. That being said, his last healthy season he put up a .278/.345/.531 with 33HR. If his patient approach from last year can be added to his now presumably healthy hitting ability, he could be an all star in 2019

The thing you’re missing is that a guy coming into the game in the 5th down 1 who makes it down 3 or 4 does just as much damage as the guy who comes in down 1 in the 8th or 9th and blows it open. Shreve was usually our first guy out of the pen if our starter couldn’t make it through 5. While he may not have lost many games and maybe he didn’t regularly come in to secure a win, he did come in plenty of times to try and keep a deficit close and failed.

The only thing I look at in the spring is the stuff of a pitcher. What is the velocity, how is the breaking ball, etc. I also don't start looking at that until 2 weeks left when they're actually throwing hard. I have seen too many Benny Agbayani's and Enrique Wilson's just dominate the spring and come out and show it was entirely worthless to get caught up in it.

Every guy in the pen will have a chance to win or lose a game. Last year, we had a damn good pen, but Chasen Shreve found his way into 40 games before the ASB. Your last guy is going to be needed, especially after an extra inning affair or a close game where the starter exits early.

They’re going to cross it again. It’s just gonna happen. They’re going to be in the hunt again with huge holes in the pen and probably a hole cropping up in the rotation or lineup that’ll need filling and the added salary will drive them past the final threshold again

I think we got a pretty good deal on Hicks. I thought he’d get about what he got on a 5 year deal after the season. To get it spread out over the extra year helps drive the AAV down. I understand why they’re doing it. They’re not going to get to that top bracket this year, hence driving up the AAV a bit this year doesn’t matter. By doing these extensions now, it drives down the total AAV of the contract and gives them more room when they’re really going to need it, a la when Judge and Sanchez start getting paid

Pollock got 5 yrs $60 mil. Hicks essentially got a 6 yr $64 mil extension on a 1 yr $6 mil contract. The AAV savings of $2 mil is a big enticer here long term

Hicks was set to make $6 mil, so the damage isn’t huge here. I think the Yanks plan on going up to the final threshold this year with the hopes that these extensions lower the AAV for future seasons. They added $9 mil to this year’s lux tax with Sevy and Hicks, but they have the room under the final threshold

Yanks are apparently talking with Hicks and Dellin about extensions. Not surprised with Hicks as switch hitting, 5 WAR CFers don’t grow on trees. Somewhat surprised about Betances, not because of talent, but because of the other options in our pen. I’d have thought the pen we have this year was in response to expected losses coming

That’s Rex Brothers. He was a closer for the Rockies before completely losing his composure. His stuff is dominant. He hasn’t harnessed it since 2013. He’s not going to make the team

The upside I see for the Sox is ERod being healthy, Eovaldi proving his stuff will translate over a full year and Devers breaking out. I guess you could also add the catchers position, although it’s not really a breakout if they move from horrendous to below average, but you’ll take it, I’m sure. Pedroia is a wild card and the board has treated him as such which is appropriate The downside I see is JD and Mookie still being forces of nature but not repeating 2018. This isn’t that hard to follow. JD was a DH and had over 6 WAR. Mookie was out of his mind last year. Both guys could fall back to .900 OPS seasons and be very productive, all star level players. Chris Sale had the best 2/3 of a season he’s ever had. He finished the year looking like a shell of himself with a mystery shoulder injury that sapped his velocity. His downside this year is humongous mostly because of how high he has soared. If he’s just good, that’s a big fall. Eovaldi’s health history needs no introduction, so while he was a trade deadline add and postseason folk hero, he could also be on the shelf. Price’s history of elbow woes hampered him for two seasons. He finished well, clearly, but he’s got some concerns there. Xander has a career season. If he slides back a bit, he’d still be all star caliber. Pearce was out of his mind after the trade, likely not to be repeated. Kimbrel is gone leaving a pen in disarray. This all adds up to one commonality that I’ll throw out there. The Sox offense will be stacked, still top 3, maybe number 1, but they won’t score as many runs. The rotation, now shored with Eovaldi will be good when the top 5 take the bump, but there will be a fair amount of starts by your #6 and #7 starters. The leads handed to your pen will be slightly smaller than last year and likely earlier than last year, which is going to put a lot of pressure on the underbelly of your club. This is why the Sox are going to finish behind NY. The pen overachieved based on personnel last year. They lost two of their top 4 relievers and added nobody to it. The pen losses will mount. The best way to beat your pythag is to have a dominant pen.

Last ST, I said the Sox and Yanks were pretty even. The Yanks ended up having more injuries and DD outmanuevered Cashman at the deadline to add two Yankee killers. This offseason, we upgraded a lot with Happ, Britton, Ottavino, Paxton and Lemahieu and lost only KRob and Gray while the Sox upgraded a bit by retaining Pearce and Eovaldi and lost a bit with Kimbrel and Kelly moving on. Our five added more than make up for the loss of the two who walked. You’re two don’t necessarily make up for the two who left. I’ll say it right now Yankees 97-65 Sox 95-67 Rays 92-70 Toronto 75-87 Baltimore 55-107 Sox and Rays play the WC play in game

Terrible. RIP Nick

Also, I looked at the records against. The Yanks were 9-10 vs the Sox in the regular season. The Sox, though, were 6 games better than the Yanks vs the rest of the division. The crazy thing is, the Yanks were 35-22 vs the rest of the division, a .614 win percentage and the Sox were 6 games better. That’s crazy and likely not repeatable.

They’re intriguing because they’ve got some incredible pitching in Snell plus some really good pen arms and a manager who knows how to use them. The trades of Colome and Archer actually made them better immediately. What the Pirates gave up is going to suck for us right away. Glasnow is a better pitcher than Archer and he’s already seen a velocity bump. Meadows looks like a good prospect too. They’ll also see their top prospect return after TJS as well as DeLeon from TJS. Remember, they lost 3/5 of their rotation to injury before the season started. They then got Eovaldi back and dealt him and then moved Archer once he got healthy. They added some pitching this year with Morton and added a lot to their offense with Garcia, Zunino, Diaz and a full year of Tommy Pham.

And yet regression isn’t on your mind at all? Betts is going to continue this unrepeatable pace? Is King Kong JD going to surpass 1.000 OPS again? Can Xander keep up his career season? Yes, you’ve got some parts that either were hurt or underachieved, but the core of your offense stayed healthy and played bonkers. Expecting that plus improvements in health and production could happen, but it’s far more likely that someone crucial slips back a little or spends some time on the DL. I don’t think the Sox win 100 this year. I doubt the yanks win 100. It’s very difficult to be in a division with two other very strong clubs and win as much as our teams did last year. The reasoning was that Tampa sucked and then went on a late run that was crazy to get them to 90 wins. They’re going to be good again and probably from the outset. Yes, we’ve got the worst team in baseball in our division and a middling squad likely hellbent on rebuilding, so that’ll help rack up wins. But games vs BOS, NYY and TB are going to be dogfights and that’s 38 games of the schedule. Last year TB was a pushover til June and the Sox owned them early. This year, they’ll be good. Let’s just assume that those 38 games are splits. 19-19. In order to win 100, a squad would have to go 81-43 (65%) against the rest and that’ll be hard to do again

Hosmer has alternated good and bad seasons his entire career. Watch next year he’ll be an .880 OPS guy with 25 HRs and everyone is going to want him again. Anyone wanting to deal Price is gonna be disappointed. He’s now got injury concerns, he’s paid in excess of $30 mil AAV and he’s entering his mid 30s. He’s going nowhere.

Devers hasn’t shown the ability to drive bad pitches like Guerrero or Beltre. I’ve never seen a better bad ball hitter than Guerrero. The guy could take a ball off his shoe tops, in the other batters box or over his head and hit it out. Beltre is a far second. I’ve yet to see Devers consistently rake bad balls like that, so I wouldn’t put them in anywhere near the same category. Devers can mash a fastball. He can go the other way. He’s got a discipline issue that will improve with experience. I don’t think an .800 OPS is unreasonable for him. I also don’t think a .720 OPS is unreasonable for him. He’s so young and has so much talent that either direction is feasible

You have to factor in raises for every arb eligible player, including JBJ, Betts, ERod, Barnes, Beni etc. if Barnes does well as your closer, he’ll be a very expensive 2nd year arb guy as saves, for some reason, are very important in arb determinations.