jacksonianmarch

I think that was a big reason for his move to the pen. If he misses the innings total by a lot, he has no gripe. If he misses it by a little, he’d file a grievance alleging playing time manipulation. His performance made it easy for the Sox to avoid the issue, but they couldn’t risk him finding it and being on the roster for 2020

Your system is entirely devoid of pitching talent. Dealing off Price for an overpriced asset that doesn’t pitch is a bad decision

I think the Yanks have proven to be masters of trading for presumed AAAAers and turning them into real big league talent. Although it looks like they miscalculated Gallegos worth in the Voit deal

The only way I can see JD opting out is if he can increase his guarantee by adding years. He definitely won’t get that this offseason. Maybe he gets something next offseason?

You’re at the point of the season where every game is important. And while the rays are ahead of you, they’re currently out of the playoffs too. You’ve got 28 games left and you need to lose 6 less than the A’s to take the WC. The A’s have 29 games left. If the A’s go 15-14, the Sox would need to go 20-8 just to tie them. With the A’s ridiculously easy schedule after the three in NYY starting tonight, it’s hard to imagine they don’t win the majority of their remaining games. Realistically, the Sox May need to go 22-6 to tie and that might not be enough

I doubt he opts our period. JD caught the back end of the DH money grab. He’s best served finishing this contract

Stay safe you old coot

DD also kept Beni. It’s about waves of talent. You don’t have as good of a farm when you graduate all star caliber players. But by the time those players get expensive, you need to have the next guy coming. Sometimes you deal off or let go of the all star player, sometimes you deal off the prospect. But having no recourse is dangerous for long term viability Now, you don’t have to develop your own guys, but you need to restock your farm somehow. A trade for a distressed asset isn’t a bad idea, but DD doesn’t really do those.

It’s more than just what you traded away. Moncada is turning into a franchise infielder Kopech is going to return next year from TJS and had looked like a monster before that Dubon just got a starting job and has torn up the minors Logan Allen was a top 100 prospect coming into the year Margot is a capable defender who just started hitting again Those five guys would be useful, but that’s only part of DD’s rape and pillage of your farm. His drafts have been universally panned. His IFA signings have, for the most part, not been impactful. And for the rest of the talent there his team isn’t developing well. There’s steps to developing a farm Identifying talent Drafting or signing talent Developing talent Keeping talent/graduating to the majors DD has failed on all levels of farm management

Being willing to spend typically lessens the blow, but willingness to spend and ALREADY spending big money are two different things. It isn’t like Henry is able to provide a clean slate here. He’s got over $500 million dollars in future commitments when you consider Pedroia, Eovaldi, JD, Bogaerts, Sale, and Price. And the only one that looks like plus value is Bogaerts’ deal. The Astros were down for many years because they refused to spend to speed up the process and what it allowed them was a considerably larger window with the ability to use their finances to secure their players long term or bring in guys with big contracts to stay on top. That will crash down eventually, but they refused to fully raid their farm which allowed them to keep guys like Alvarez, Tucker and Whitley who are their next wave. The Sox are in a pickle. They need to decide if they should spend and give the gang another chance or sell off some pieces and have an aging roster of high priced players on a bad team.

Another injury, though. Urshela down with a tweaked groin

He’s found the stroke.

care to refute it with data, because the data is on my side

The Sox have been rolling but have gained no ground on the A’s. The Rays are fading as expected without their two aces. The A’s and Guardians schedules are jokes from here on out. While I understand the premise of the initial post, everyone seems aware of the position you’re in

The most important baseball for the yanks on Sunday will be played far from Yankee stadium on a mound in the minors when Sevy throws two innings

JBJ is getting by on past performance. He’s a step slower this year and the metrics bear it out. While he makes incredible plays, most of the younger CFers are making those plays without a dive or a crash into the wall. He’s experiencing the natural progression of being at a speed demon position. So now that his defense is no longer elite, his bat needs to carry and outside of a couple hot weeks, it doesn’t carry. He’s due to make 8 figures next year and you’d expect the defense to either stay similar or drop from this year. Has he been an elite defender? Absolutely. Is he still, no. Hence, he’s gonna get dealt or non tendered. The Sox are not winning a title with him this year, so they can afford to see what they can get for him since they need to reshuffle the financial deck to afford some pitching

Any Sandoval money counts. Rusney’s Money doesn’t.

Another homer. He’s white hot now and carrying the club. Tanaka looks back on track. One more and we come home for the divisional coronation

He's the best Coors field hitter of all time. His home splits this year are on-roids-Bonds-ian. His OPS doubles when he comes home

DHern has dominant stuff, but his lack of command absolutely limits his ceiling. He cannot close at the rate he is walking people. His ceiling will always be limited until he gets that walk rate below 5 per 9 as a reliever. He is the kind of guy who could turn into a Betances or turn into a Daniel Cabrera. Betances couldn't throw strikes in the minors then found it in AAA as a reliever.

That was awhile ago. Torres is still killin it

Here is where the rubber meets the road with the pen. The Yanks have had the most save opportunities in baseball at 70. Now this counts any lead 3 or less or when the tying run reaches the on deck circle in the 7th or beyond. The Yanks are 8th in save percentage in baseball at 68.6%. There is no real significant difference between 8th and 6th. But of the seven teams ahead of the Yanks, only 3 are playoff teams. The other 4 are horrible teams with good closers. Far less save opportunities but their closer locks them down. Of the 7 ahead of the Yanks, they’re all 18 or more save opportunities below the Yanks in number. We’ve had far more chances and have used far more pitchers in save chances because of this. And even with the vastly higher opportunities, we’ve still locked them down better than 22 other squads. The Sox have the worst save percentage in baseball right now at 51%. They’re also 18th in save opportunities. There’s where your team lacks. Your rotation isn’t handing leads off or your offense isn’t handing leads off to your pen. When your pen takes over close leads, they blow half of them.

Judge also started pulling the ball. Listen, I love the opposite field approach, but only on pitches that are away. I don't want him to turn into Jeter, inside outing all balls thrown and shooting them to RF. He's got the power to drive it out of anywhere, he doesn't need to shortchange his power by hoping to get some cheapie YS homers

Exactly! Steven Tarpley and others of his ilk have skewed a lot of our numbers. He’s not even making the PO roster. And you also need to consider the looming return of possibly our best pen arm in Betances. He went through the same process as Sevy. Initially a shoulder issue, developed a lat strain. He’s throwing bullpens and is probably 5 days away from a rehab assignment. If he comes back throwing well, he will make this pen even deadlier

So we’ve got three in Seattle, get a day off, head home for three vs Oakland then have a cakewalk to the finish. Only seven games vs the Sox and rays and nothing of note otherwise.