jacksonianmarch

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ys-mlbwmblog&prov=yhoo&type=lgns for aurilia and feliz, go to rotoworld. 3 yrs for Molina is crazy talk.

the dodgers arent waivering as much as the sox are asking for too much. Waivering to me indicates that a deal was in place but they are re-negging on it.

until 2012 worth 65 mil. WOW, that seems a little cheap for a pitcher of his caliber. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-cardinals-carpenter&prov=ap&type=lgns

Ethier is an untouchable. Believe that.

btw, that is a pathetic deal. First of all, Furcal would be a veteran being traded during a ling term deal, which means he could opt out of his contract or demand a trade after one season. And at 13mil, he could potentially get more especially if he wanted to go back to the cubs who are apparently flush with cash. Second of all, if the dodgers really wanted to do that, do you think they would have let the Lugo negotiations go for this long without making an attempt to sign him? Also, Wheeler may be their closer for all intents and purposes, so why would they want to move him and Ensberg (especially since their problem was with offense) for a broken down pitcher who was left out of the postseason rotation. Plus, the sox would be getting the steal of the deal, all three dodgers players a young starting SS, a hard throwing rookie closer, and a top prospect. The sox would love this deal, but it wont be happening any time soon.

he is a guy who is not ready to close yet. He showed flashes of brilliance but was downright awful most of the time. They say that you usually get it all back 2 seasons after TJ. Last season was the first season, next season will be the 2nd. He should be back to being Octavio in 2008, but next yr is a huge risk.

another bad option arises. When you cannot cut it closing for the brewers, then you probably wont cut it closing for the sox.

Too many things on the back burner and nothing getting done. Manny for 3 mlb ready prospects is not steep unless you are talking about the three that the red sox want. 2 MLB ready prospects and a MLB guy would be right. You still have to remember that Manny is 35, so he shouldnt necessarily net the sox 3 prime prospects. Either way, this will get resolved at some point. As for needs, I agree. Broxton is a must in any Dodgers deal. The guy throws absolute smoke, but bringing a kid from the sandy beaches of the southwest to Boston is a different beast altogether. The other pieces can fall where they may. An outfielder is something they should consider, but it shouldnt be a breaking point. Kemp has a lot of swingin Wily Mo in him with is 9BB and 53K in 154AB. The one thing he brings to the table over WMP is speed. Loney is a guy who could be on the radar, but I dont see him as a big power guy justifying 1b. He shouldnt be a sticking point. LaRoche, the same way. The guy has tons of promise, but dont hold a deal up if there is one. The dodgers are also looking to unload the enigma, Brad Penny. Great first half, terrible second half and multiple mental meltdowns in LA of all places. He is signed for what amounts to 19 mil over the next 2 yrs. So in all, I could see a deal of Penny, Broxton and "insert prospect here" getting done. The dodgers dont have the luxury to gift wrap 3 to the sox, but one potential closer and one bat to go along with Penny should seal the deal.

I always like it when you come on the scene seabeach. Glad you enjoyed the scene. As for the yankees, I have no idea what is going on, and this is a first. Most of the time every negotiation is so public that it is boring when it finally gets finished. Now, nothing. The rumors floating around are that the yankees like their pen, a lot. Rivera closing, Proctor as the long man (never believe the stories of him converting to the rotation, that wont happen), Farnsworth, Bruney, Myers as a good core with guys like Britton, Cox, Beam, Villone possibly as audition guys and long guys like Rasner and Karstens. They love the pen, so they are actually looking to move a piece. One is Farnsworth. His 6mil salary has suddenly gotten a whole lot more affordable after the Baez signing. On other fronts, they seem to like the top of the rotation with Wang and Mussina, but there are definite rumbling over RJ. There are both positive and negative questions about him, like was his back the cause of his poor season and if fixed will he be the old RJ? Or will he continue to slide and now post back surgery, will he even be useful as a yankee? These questions combined with the back of the rotation that looks like Igawa and Pavano, have led to the yankees really holding out hope for a Pettitte return. If he returns, then he immediately solidifies the rotation at the top as the 2 or 3 behind wang and makes the rotation deeper. If he doesnt come to NY, expect them to keep their ears open. They have 7 guys who will be duking it out for 5 spots and this does not include the trio of top prospects sitting in the rotation in AAA. It is a position of depth, but nothing all that spectacular for 2007 at least. They also have not had major league ready prospects like these ones since Pettitte, Mo, Ramiro were on the farm together in the early 90s. I think they will likely try to hang onto these pieces unless they find something they cannot refuse. As for ARod, the rumors have him going to the white sox for Crede and Garcia. This would be a HORRIBLE trade. Garcia is a true innings eater in every sense of the word, but he is 1 yr from FA and he posted his career worst era last yr at 4.54. Crede is a guy who has elevating power, but is about 3 tiers below ARod. If the yankees move ARod, they should be able to get a young ace plus a fair 3b in the deal as ARod, even though every single yankee fan bags on him, is one of the best players in the history of the game and will bring offense, speed and solid defense at a prime position back. I think he suits up in the Bronx next yr, as I think the only match would be the angels and I dont think they'd part with the necessary pieces (Jered Weaver being one) to make it work.

While you are right, you must consider that Soriano is 5 yrs younger and has speed. Manny at 35 will still be huge draw, but I would consider his worth to be in Soriano's range right now.

I dont see Billingsley coming back. It looks like they would love to send Penny over though. And you would likely have to pick between Loney and Kemp. I could see a Penny/Broxton/Kemp deal getting done. Just remember though, teams will be a little reluctant to deal a hoarde of major league ready talent. When Soriano was available, the going rate was one MLB ready top prospect, hence they hung onto him.

At the same time though, how many of these top prospect for young talent deals blow up in people's faces? Willis and his herky jerky motion will lend to injuries.

Now those two guys I can definitely see helping the sox, somewhat. Broxton is a closer type, but will his move from the NL West cause his ERA to jump? We'll see. Kemp is a monster power bat who can play CF. He is a guy anyone should target. He will be a good player.

I have a question for you guys. Would you be okay if the sox got minor league talent out of this deal, or does there need to be significant MLB talent included?

Gom, are you crazy? I am not too high on willis, so I would not even consider moving Hughes. Not for him. The yankees may be better off seeing what they have before they try to get someone. Their upper level pitching is very promising and could net something in season.

It is actually a very risky proposition. Also, you need to have a core of effective relievers before you can go to a committee. Right now the sox have a soft tossing left specialist and an aging timlin to go along with a few kids who had rough yrs. If the sox go in with a committee, and it blows up in their face, they will have to pay through the arse trying to land a good reliever in season. It is a recipe for disaster.

It is hard to justify the sox making this deal. You are talking about dealing one of the best hitters in baseball history for a pitcher who didnt make their playoff rotation and two kids.

unfortunately no, it was on the radio.

They are talking about Adam Jones as well, a guy who is supposed to be a 5 tool player but looked real bad after his first stint in the bigs. He is only 20 though, so he looks to have a bright future.

a #1, I expect to win 2/3 of his decisions. I expect 200+IP. I expect a top 10-15 era in the league. a #3, I expect 180-200IP, more wins than losses and an era under 4.5.

it was on XM two nights ago, Ronnie Night Train Lane et al.

If pedroia is as he was billed to be, then he'd be ticketed for Pawtucket in the event that both spots are filled.

at the same time, I went on record as saying that it was an unwise move and I stick by my initial assessment with this added caveat. If the yankees are able to get Igawa under control for 15-20 mil over 4 yrs (which is likely) and this makes them less likely to pursue Lilly, then I think it is a swell move. If they go out and get Lilly or another second tier pitcher anyway, then it is a poor move. Here is my logic to that. Igawa will cost the yankees 40-45mil. But only 15-20 of that will be subject to lux tax, which is killing the yankees right now. As a third time offender, they pay 40% of what they are over the limit. That means that 10mil a yr (which is what Lilly will make) would really be 14mil. While 4mil to igawa is really 6mil when it is all said and done. That is a savings of 8mil per yr over the life of the contract. Multiply that by 4 and you have a savings on the posting of 8mil. So essentially, the yankees got a guy who looks like he is the Japanese version of Ted Lilly (except more durable) for 8 mil less overall. And, perhaps the most important thing, they do not have to part with a first rounder which is going to be huge this draft because of the depth of the talent. Now, all this goes caput if they sign Lilly anyway. Igawa makes sense if he is slated as a 4 or a 5. Now if the yankees go out and get Lilly (who is a 4 or a 5) then they shoot themselves in the foot.

again, he does not get hit a ton more. He is still under a hit per inning which is very significant. Now you say that 25mil as a 5th starter just to talk is not a wise investment. Well, the same scouts (Japanese scouts mind you) who are saying that Igawa is a 4/5 are saying that Matsuzaka is likely going to settle in as a 3 with a ceiling of a 2. How is it insane to offer 25 mil to a guy who is a 4/5 when the sox offered 51.1mil to talk to a guy who is a 3? Makes no sense to me at all.